1. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20141

2. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20142 We will consider facts and data on: history population economy opinion

3. A separate state with a separate identity? U3A PPS, Jan 20143 844 Irish settlers and Picts formed kingdom of Alba (north of Forth and Clyde) 1018 south-east stolen from England in Battle of Carham 1034 south-west obtained from England by marriage 1266 Western Isles obtained from Norway by treaty Shetland and Orkney obtained from Norway by marriage A separate state with a separate identity? no obvious frontier between north and south Britain no physical barriers within Scotland differences of race and language among its people contrast between Highlands and Lowlands affinities between the Lowlands and England Picts and Britons, Scandinavians, Angles and Normans laid aside memories of the past and adopted the mythology of the Scots, who came as Irish invaders

4. Some More Dates U3A PPS, Jan 20144 1603 Union of crowns – James IV/ I (incl. Ireland & France) 1707 political union following the Darien adventure 1745 Jacobite rebellion – Bonny Prince Charlie 1746 Culloden – rout of Jacobites 1885 Scottish Secretary and Scottish Office established 1886 Gladstone Irish Home Rule Bill introduced 1913 Scottish Home Rule bill introduced 1921 SNL set up in London 1928 NPS formed 1934 SNP formed – NPS + Scottish Party (Conservatives) 1967 Winnie Ewing wins Hamilton seat for SNP 1974 11 SNP MPs 1999 Scottish Parliament – devolution 2011 SNP majority government

5. Scottish Independence Some Data U3A PPS, Jan 2014 UK, pop 60 million, GDP £1500 billion Scotland, pop 5.3 million, GDP £150 billion Consider other countries Ireland, pop 4.5 million, GDP £110 billion Finland, pop 5.4 million, GDP £120 billion Norway, pop 5 million, GDP £170 billion Number of Scots in England 800,000 Number of English in Scotland 400,000

6. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20146 Voters will be asked the yes/no question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The Scottish government's original version of the question, "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?", was dropped after the Electoral Commission raised concerns it could lead people into voting "yes". Past incarnations of the referendum question have proved far more wordy. The SNP previously said people could be asked to vote "Yes I agree" or "No I disagree" to the statement: "The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government, based on the proposals set out in the white paper, so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state."

7. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20147 When? Referendum 18 September 2014 2014 the Ryder Cup golf tournament and the Commonwealth Games - are being held in Scotland. 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314, English army defeated by Robert the Bruce, during the wars of independence. But 100 th anniversary of WW1 Effective if approved May 2016 Why? An SNP obsession? Who votes? Scottish residents over 16 What do Scottish residents think now? 80% of people we met were against even having the referendum 60% in a recent poll think too much money is being spent on the referendum

8. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20148 Do Scots understand? 14% claim to understand what the Scottish Parliament does after 14 years of devolution The opinion polls yes 27 to 30% no 41 to 45% don’t know 22 to 33% Scotland’s Future white paper 81% of over-55s have heard of it 45% of 16 to 34 age group have heard of it What would it mean to the England?

9. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 20149 The protagonists SNP and Green Party (Alex Salmond MSP, First Minister) – tax funded Better Together campaign, (Alistair Darling) - funded by donation Scotland’s Future white paper – 670 pages A new poll reveals that almost 60% of people in Scotland believe Alex Salmond is spending too much public money advertising his White Paper manifesto for breaking up the UK.

10. Scottish Independence SNP Promises U3A PPS, Jan 201410 Children from age 1 will have free care for 1140 hours a year Trident to be removed Income tax will not increase No border checks to England Immigration encouraged 90% of oil and gas = £22 billion

11. Scottish Independence U3A PPS, Jan 201411 Is it like Britain and the EU? Is it practical? What is Scotland? How would you decide? Economics Religion Defence Religion Identity

12. Scottish Independence Potential Advantages U3A PPS, Jan 201412 Decisions taken more locally Greater sense of identity Would not be ruled by English Tories Could be neutral and avoid defence spending

13. Scottish Independence Potential Disadvantages U3A PPS, Jan 201413 Would become parochial and insular, less tolerant Taxation would increase or services reduce England may be disadvantaged ( and most Scots have family in England) Currency in doubt (SNP has no plan B) Credit rating not likely to be AAA as UK EU membership in doubt Lots of uncertainty Would be a minor nation Loss of identity If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

14. Scottish Independence, Conclusions U3A PPS, Jan 201414 If the British have the right to succeed from the EU, the Scots have the right to succeed from the Great Britain It’s good that Scotland has the choice Symptom of the failure of central government to be sympathetic to those living away from Whitehall Scottishness is an arbtiary identity More to do with people wishing for local autonomy than for identity Clannish, tribal, family ideas should be obsolete in a diverse and tolerant world It will be a setback for civilisation if it says “Yes” Irish independence is a mistake I blame the Catholic Church

15. Scottish Independence, Conclusions U3A PPS, Jan 201415 It’s good that Scotland has the choice The referendum will decided more on emotion than on a careful analysis of the data (how many of us would take the time or be capable of assessing the likely credit rating of the country, making a sensible estimate of declining oil revenues?) It will be a setback for civilisation if it says “Yes” Irish independence is a mistake I blame the Catholic Church