1. Political Demography: Why Now? Eric Kaufmann Professor of Politics, Birkbeck College, University of London

3. 2009 Thanks to Weatherhead Center and Kennedy School, Harvard

4. Political Demography How does population change affect politics? Births, Deaths, Migration Birth Rate, Death Rate, Immigration/Emigration Nations, Ethnic groups, Religions, Civilisations try to shape their populations Population change shapes nations, ethnic groups, religions

5. Main Subfields Population Aging (Haas vs. Sciubba on military balance of power) ‘Youth Bulge’ Effects (Urdal on violence; Cincotta on democracy; Madsen on development) Differential National/Civilizational Population Change (Goldstone; Howe and Jackson) Differential Ethnic and Religious Population Change (Toft, Green, Kaufmann, Leuprecht, Nordas)

6. ….Main Subfields Population, Environment and Resources (Matthew on climate change and conflict) Migration (Coleman, Frey, Gratton on immigration) Also: Urbanization (associated with politicisation and radical social change) Sex ratios (‘bare branches’ and conflict NOT mutually exclusive

7. Mechanisms Typically a conditioning or contributing factor to political change Often second or third-order impacts: high birth rates young population youth poverty and youth unemployment tinder for protest, insurgency or violence

8. Why Now? ‘Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen’ while 'today, it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic or foreign- policy direction.‘ – Neil Howe, Richard Jackson, p. 33

10. Developing World Transition More Rapid At the end of the demographic transition Denmark 5 times greater population, Guatemala up to 24 times greater population.

12. Why Now? Unprecedented change, 1950-2050 Unprecedented unevenness, peaking 2050 Unprecedented aging and decline of populations in 21 st Century