1. The teacher labour market in 2016 Professor John Howson Director TeachVac

2. Seminar presentation to the UCET conference – November 2015

3. Recruitment – what we expect in 2015 Key figures: Do we expect that recruitment meets: NCTL Allocations Teacher Supply model Less than Teacher supply model number Subjects in bold have had TSM number for 2016 reduced – only mathematics had it increased

4. Recruitment meets NCTL Allocations Probably no major subject will reach this number

5. Recruitment meets Teacher Supply model Physical Education History – will beat TSM but not reach allocations Computer Science – depending on numbers that turned up Chemistry – should be close to TSM number

6. Key figures: Recruitment number Less than Teacher Supply Model number for 2015 Art Biology – but may be close Business Studies Design & Technology English Geography Mathematics – but close to TSM Music Physics Religious Education

7. Recruitment in Languages is difficult to predict from published data, but We expect it to be close to Teacher Supply Model number

8. Consequences for the labour market in 2016

9. Recruitment where no problems expected in 2016 based upon 2015 recruitment round data on advertisements From TeachVac Art – TSM too high? History – but effect of humanities may not be fully compensated for Physical Education Languages

10. Recruitment may be a problem in some parts of England in 2016 Biology Chemistry English Mathematics Music

11. Recruitment issues could arise anywhere and may be severe in London and East of England in 2016 Computer Science Design & Technology Business Studies Religious Education Geography

12. GroupITTNumber left% left Art53419236.05 Science227727812.23 English1689-95-5.62 Mathematics218643119.72 Languages110525322.94 IT519-47-9.06 Design & Technology 450-162-36.11 Business200-175-87.50 RE3850-0.13 PE127186367.90 Music372359.54 Social Sciences113-97-86.28 Geography601-31-5.24 History78620826.53 ITT pool numbers as of 25/10/15

13. Recruitment – subject graphs

28. And what for 2017?  Message from government is EBacc including Computer Science is what matters  Unless economy experiences severe downturn and graduate recruitment declines ITT recruitment patterns may not alter  Government may do more – marketing has an effect; earlier TV campaign than last year  Fees v Bursaries – what of salaried route into teaching?  More school based training: fewer HEI places? Teach First part of core numbers for 2016 recruitment: implications?

29. SEPTEMBER 2015 UCAS DATA PLACE D CONDITION AL PLACED HOLDI NG OFFERALL OFFERS ALL APPLICANT S% offerCOND OFFER PLACE D ENGLAND217104740140265904241063%11%51% NE1100170101280206062%8%53% YH2350490102850430066%11%55% NW3390450203860585066%8%58% EM196030002260350065%9%56% WM2640300102950465063%6%57% EE1990640202650421063%15%47% L33001340604700855055%16%39% SE3050700103760576065%12%53% SW1940350102300354065%10%55% 42420

30. Data on 2015 recruitment in September & on 2016 published numbers

31. SEPTEMBER 2015 UCAS DATA PLACED CONDITION AL PLACED HOLDING OFFER ALL OFFERS ALL APPLICANTS% offer % COND OFFER Age Grou pPlaced 21 under3320540103870577067%9% 21 und er58% 223670630104310627069%10%2259% 232930540103480518067%10%2357% 242180460102650397067%12%2455% 25-2950001190406230995063%12% 25- 2950% 30-392730760303520647054%12% 30- 3942% 40+1890620202530480053%13%40+39% all ages217204740130265904241063%11% all ages51%

32. 2016-17 NCTL ALLOCATION S East Midlands East of EnglandLondonNorth East North West South East South West West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Grand Total TSM Number 2016-17 Art & Design54981874216314196110101992 633 Biology158184341792633071392002111887 1178 Business studies435388249375235154504 252 Chemistry152216406752463891712422472146 1053 Classics22213239 69 Computer Science79126296512172791022181521522 723 Design & Technolog y9411121648159205891541271203 1033 Drama374716081381147110147725 347 English2993636411434786362634254593714 2253 Geograph y13017627189214287911942221676 778 History145176239702353001231772441712 816 Maths2993807731555677213164944794193 3103 MFL168231466833314092102142832397 1514 Music577219223121125897378833 399 Other69752431117418450140581007 938 Physical Education195167324963663201962732262166 999 Physics164217398792914451822472432270 1055 Religious Education688320642204159721351081079 544 TSM17687 Grand Total22112777546911184260510922833450333930065

33. NCTL % 2016-17 ALLOCATIONS East Midland s East of EnglandLondonNorth EastNorth WestSouth EastSouth West West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Art & Design5%10%19%4%16%14%10%11%10%100% Biology8%10%18%4%14%16%7%11% 100% Business studies9%11%17%5%18%15%5%10%11%100% Chemistry7%10%19%3%11%18%8%11%12%100% Classics0%5%56%0% 33%0%5%0%100% Computer Science5%5%8%19%3%14%18%7%14%10%100% Design & Technology8%9%18%4%13%17%7%13%11%100% Drama5%6%22%1%19%16%10%14%6%100% English8%10%17%4%13%17%7%11%12%100% Geography8%11%16%5%13%17%5%12%13%100% History8%10%14%4%14%18%7%10%14%100% Maths7%9%18%4%14%17%8%12%11%100% MFL7%10%19%3%14%17%9% 12%100% Music7%9%23%3%15% 11%9% 100% Other7% 24%1%17%18%5%14%6%100% Physical Education9%8%15%4%17%15%9%13%10%100% Physics7%10%18%3%13%20%8%11% 100% Religious Education6%8%19%4%19%15%7%13%10%100% Grand Total7%9%18%4%14%17%8%11% 100%

34. English – an example