1. The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes © 2007 by James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved. Inadvertent Wrong-Precinct Voting or Vote-Switching Fraud

2. How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes The article introduces material discussed herein. article The article also introduces the notation used. http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html Another PowerPoint presentation: -- http://jqjacobs.net/politics/vote_switching.ppt -- http://jqjacobs.net/politics/vote_switching.ppt summarizes the article and also introduces this presentation. Spreadsheet and database links: Spreadsheet and database links: http://jqjacobs.net/politics/spreadsheets.html http://jqjacobs.net/politics/spreadsheets.htmlhttp://jqjacobs.net/politics/spreadsheets.html http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_precincts_subsets.xls http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_precincts_subsets.xls

3. In a subset of 166,953 votes, one of every 34 Ohio voters, the Kerry-Bush margin shifts 6.15% when the same voters are sorted by different outcomes of cross-voting. In this probability analysis, the same precincts are sorted into various subsets. When precincts are sorted according to probability of Kerry cross-votes counting for Badnarik (K-b), the Kerry percentage is equal, at 64.62%. When the same voters are instead sorted according to the probabilities of Kerry-Bush vote- switching (K-B), the Kerry-Bush differential shifts 6.15%.

4. Comparing cross-vote probability sorts. When sorted according to K-b probability, Kerry % = 64.62. When sorted according to K-d probability, Kerry % = 64.77 and 64.44. When the same precincts are instead sorted according to the Kerry-Bush probability: In the precincts where Kerry votes can be switched to Bush votes, where K-B P = 0.50, Kerry ’ s % is lower and Bush ’ s % is higher. where K-B P = 0.00, Kerry ’ s % is higher and Bush ’ s % is lower. Subset includes all locations with three precincts and two or three ballot orders. Data: http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_precincts_subsets.xlshttp://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_precincts_subsets.xls

5. Badnarik, Bush, Kerry, Disqualified, or Peroutka OHIO 2004 Punch Card Voting

6. bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK Five Precincts with Five Kerry Votes Punched.

7. bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK Move Each Ballot to the Adjacent Precinct.

8. bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK And Five Kerry Votes Become Five Bush Votes.

9. Assuming the vote was Kerry = 50 Bush = 50 Total = 100 Switching 5 % of the votes Kerry 50 – 5 = 45 Bush 50 + 5 = 55 Bush Margin = 10 Changes the margin by 10 %

10. The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes © 2007 by James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved. Permissions. James Q. JacobsPermissionsJames Q. JacobsPermissions Tests of Population Means cuyahoga_t_tests.xls - 30Kb cuyahoga_t_tests.xls - 30Kb cuyahoga_t_tests.xls Cite this presentation as: http://jqjacobs.net/politics/precinct_switching.ppt http://jqjacobs.net/politics/precinct_switching.ppthttp://jqjacobs.net/politics/precinct_switching.ppt