1. April 11-13, 2007 Thomas Karl Climate Working Group Climate Observations & Analysis Program Review Climate Assessments 1

2. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 2 Outline  Climate Assessments - Overview  Recent and Ongoing Assessments –Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)  CCSP 1.1 – Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere  CCSP 3.3 – Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate –International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  2007 Release

3. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 3 COA (& precursors) have partnered in producing major assessment reports: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1990, 92, 95, 2001, 2007 Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 1.1 (2006), 3.3 (2008) The U.S. National Assessment Monthly, seasonal, and annual reports on the “State of the Climate” Overview Climate Assessment Scientific assessments of climate variability and change are critical in establishing the state of the science for policy makers and the general public

4. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 4  The CCSP Strategic Plan calls for the creation of 21 Synthesis and Assessment (SAP) reports organized around 5 Scientific Goals  COA involvement –Leading two SAPs:  1.1Temperature Trends; 3.3 Weather and Climate Extremes –Participation in three SAPs  Paleoclimate, Climate Change &Transportation, Uncertainty –Providing Technical support for NOAA led SAPs Climate Change Science Program Overview Integrating federal research on global change and climate change SAPs are intended to support informed discussion & decision-making by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, & the general public Abstracts & Executive Summary are accessible to High School graduate level understanding Chapters are written to the complexity of Scientific American or similar magazines.

5. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 5 Climate Change Science Program Assessment 1.1 published in April 2006  Objective – An understanding of: Temperature changes in the atmosphere Differences in these changes at various levels in the atmosphere The causes of these changes & differences  Key Highlights: Global-average warming in the atmosphere now similar to warming observed at the surface Fundamental change from earlier findings (US-NRC and IPCC reports) Findings also consistent with results obtained from models (though discrepancies remain in the tropics) Increased confidence in understanding of observed climate change/causes and increased confidence in climate model results

6. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 6 CCSP 3.3 - Weather & Climate Extremes Motivation  BUT… –No specific IPCC assessment on weather & climate extremes across N.A., Hawaii, and U.S. territories  AND… –N.A observing systems are among the best in the world –N.A. weather & climate extremes are some of the most notable occurring across the globe.  IPCC assessments evaluated weather & climate extreme on a global basis –Considered both observed and projected changes in climate. –A gradually warming world will be accompanied by changes in the variability and frequency of weather and climate extremes. U.S. experienced 70 weather/climate disasters from 1980-2006 that were > $1 billion

7. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 7 CCSP 3.3 - Weather & Climate Extremes Overview of Report  Objective: – An understanding of: Changes in weather and climate extremes as related to their intensity or frequency, and likely future evolution Weather extremes: Unusual in their occurrence or have destructive potential, such as torrential rainfall, hurricanes, severe winter storms, heat waves, etc. Climate extremes: Represent the same events, as above but viewed over many seasons, decades, or longer  Regions of Focus: North America Caribbean Hawaii and U.S. Pacific islands To be published June 2008

8. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 8  Preface --- T. Karl, C. Miller, W. Murray  Executive Summary --- CLA: T. Karl & J. Meehl LAs: T. Peterson, K. Kunkel, W. Gutowski, D. Easterling Scientific Ed: S. Hassol, C. Miller, W. Murray  Chapter 1 --- Why weather and climate extremes matter CLAs: T. Peterson LAs: D. Anderson, S. Cohen, M. Cortez, R. Murnane, C. Parmesan, D. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, J. Stone  Chapter 2 --- Observed Changes of Weather and Climate Extremes CLA: K. Kunkel LAs: P. Bromirski, H. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. Douglas, D. Easterling, K. Emanuel, P. Groisman, G. Holland, T. Knutson, P. Komar, D. Levinson, T. Peterson, R. Smith CCSP 3.3 Chapter Titles and Authors  Chapter 3 --- How well do we understand the causes of observed changes in extremes, and what are the projected future changes? CLA: W. Gutowski, Jr. LAs: G. Hegerl,.G.. Holland, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, R. Stouffer, P. Webster, F. Zwiers, T. Peterson  Chapter 4 --- Recommendations for Improving our Understanding CLA: D. Easterling LAs: D. Anderson, W. Gutowski, Jr., K. Kunkel, T. Peterson  Glossary --- A. Waple  Graphics, Ass’t Scientific Ed., & Tech. Ed. S. Veasey, A. Waple, A. Markel.

9. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 9 CCSP 3.3 Milestones Remaining SAP milestones beginning in 2007  Draft Synthesis Product submitted to NRC for review – Feb 07  Receive NRC comments – Jun 07  FACA meeting (Aspen) – Jun 07  Revised SAP 3.3 posted for Public comments – Aug 07  Public comments received – Oct 07  Revised SAP 3.3 submitted to CCSP principals (interagency) – Dec 07  SAP 3.3 submitted to NSTC - Jan 08  SAP 3.3 posted to web site (with response to all comments) Mar 08  SAP 3.3 printed version available Jun 08

10. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 10 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Assessment COA Funded Authors  Chapter 1 --- Historical Overview of Climate Change Science LA: T. Peterson CAs: M. Allen*, G. Hegerl*, B. Santer*, K. Taylor*, K. Trenberth* Chapter 3 --- Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change LAs: D. Easterling, B. Soden* CAs: B. Gleason, J. Lawrimore, D. Levinson, R. Vose D. Wuertz, J. Christy*, A. Dai*, M. Free*, P. Groisman*, K. Kunkel*, J. Lanzante*, C. Mears*, E. Chang*, M. Free, K. Rosenlof, S. Sherwood* Review Ed.: T. Karl  Chapter 4 --- Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice, and Frozen Ground CA: D. Robinson*  Chapter 5 --- Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level LA: S. Levitus CA: R. Feely*  Chapter 6 ---- Paleoclimate CAs: E. Cook*, H. Pollack*, J. Overpeck*, J. Cole*, L. Stott*, L. Thompson** *non NOAA

11. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 11 Questions

12. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 12 CCSP Scientific Goals  Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change. (3 Synthesis & Assessment Products)  Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems. (4 Synthesis & Assessment Products)  Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future. (4 Synthesis & Assessment Products)  Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes. (7 Synthesis & Assessment Products)  Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change. (3 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

13. Climate Observations & Analysis Review April 11-13, 2007 13 Technical support for all CCSP reports NCDC to produce eight NOAA-led CCSP Reports  COA is providing graphics, editing, layout, and printing for all NOAA-led CCSP reports.  Contract team formed in November 2006