1. Aviation AFD Guidance An Airline Perspective Southwest Aviation Safety Workshop Phoenix, AZ Ken Widelski Meteorologist NWS: Lubbock, TX NWS: Lubbock, TX

2. Agenda Basis for the studyBasis for the study ContributorsContributors Purpose for the Aviation AFDPurpose for the Aviation AFD Items that should be included in the AFDItems that should be included in the AFD Items that should not be includedItems that should not be included AFD usageAFD usage SummarySummary

3. Basis for the study January 13 th 2006: WFO Lubbock held a Local BLAST leadership meeting.January 13 th 2006: WFO Lubbock held a Local BLAST leadership meeting. Guest Speaker: Rick CurtisGuest Speaker: Rick Curtis Southwest Airlines and the National Weather Service are a partnershipSouthwest Airlines and the National Weather Service are a partnership Our TAFS are used exclusively by flight dispatch for planning purposesOur TAFS are used exclusively by flight dispatch for planning purposes There is a need for a more effective communication method than the TAF aloneThere is a need for a more effective communication method than the TAF alone

4. Contributors Contributors A Collaborative effort developed between WFO Lubbock, San Angelo and eventually Austin/San Antonio.A Collaborative effort developed between WFO Lubbock, San Angelo and eventually Austin/San Antonio. The common thread was to gain external feedback on how to effectively communicate aviation concerns through the AFD.The common thread was to gain external feedback on how to effectively communicate aviation concerns through the AFD. Rick Curtis became the main contributor.Rick Curtis became the main contributor.

5. Purpose for the Aviation AFD Airline Perspective Provides NWS Forecasters the opportunity to briefly identify weather related items which may affect the operations of an airport terminal.Provides NWS Forecasters the opportunity to briefly identify weather related items which may affect the operations of an airport terminal. The product should provide aviation users with a better understanding of expected weather conditions during the short term (critical TAF period).The product should provide aviation users with a better understanding of expected weather conditions during the short term (critical TAF period). Communication method should be non technical.Communication method should be non technical.

6. Items to Include in the AFD The following items should be included only when situations warrant…The following items should be included only when situations warrant… 1) Precipitation 1) Precipitation -Type -Type -Start and Stop Times -Start and Stop Times -Special attention given to ice pellets, -Special attention given to ice pellets, freezing rain, snowfall amounts and freezing rain, snowfall amounts and intensity intensity

7. 2) Winds 2) Winds -Threat of strong winds -Threat of strong winds -Wind shifts -Wind shifts -Cross wind activity -Cross wind activity (familiarization with runways) (familiarization with runways) 3) Thunderstorms 3) Thunderstorms -Coverage -Coverage -Duration -Duration -Likelihood -Likelihood

8. 4) Frontal Passages 4) Frontal Passages -Timing -Timing -Cause -Cause 5) Low Ceiling and Fog Potential 5) Low Ceiling and Fog Potential -Timing -Timing -Cause -Cause 6) Visibility Obstructions 6) Visibility Obstructions -Smoke -Smoke -Blowing Dust -Blowing Dust -Volcanic Ash -Volcanic Ash -Other -Other

9. 7) Low Level Wind Shear Potential 7) Low Level Wind Shear Potential 8) Changes in Flight Condition 8) Changes in Flight Condition -Example…VFR to IFR -Example…VFR to IFR -Timing window to these -Timing window to these changes changes *9) TAF Confidence *9) TAF Confidence -Items that may have been left -Items that may have been left out of the TAF, but considered. out of the TAF, but considered.

10. TAF Confidence ExampleTAF Confidence Example KSAT 061720Z 061818 13015KT P6SM SCT035 BKN150 KSAT 061720Z 061818 13015KT P6SM SCT035 BKN150 FM0100 VRB05KTS P6SM SCT250 FM0100 VRB05KTS P6SM SCT250 Aviation Discussion Aviation Discussion One or Two isolated thunderstorms will form along the sea breeze and may approach the KSST/KSAT TAF sites. However, the chance of the thunderstorms affecting even the vicinity area is less than 5%, so mention of them has been left out of the TAFS. One or Two isolated thunderstorms will form along the sea breeze and may approach the KSST/KSAT TAF sites. However, the chance of the thunderstorms affecting even the vicinity area is less than 5%, so mention of them has been left out of the TAFS.

11. Items that Should not be Included A regurgitation of the TAFA regurgitation of the TAF TAF Example: TAF Example: KCRP 061720Z 061818 13007KT P6SM BKN008 KCRP 061720Z 061818 13007KT P6SM BKN008 FM0100 29020G30KTS P6SM SCT250 FM0100 29020G30KTS P6SM SCT250 Corresponding Aviation Discussion Corresponding Aviation Discussion IFR ceilings with light winds will persist at terminal KCRP Through 00z. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 20 to 30 KTS through the night. IFR ceilings with light winds will persist at terminal KCRP Through 00z. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 20 to 30 KTS through the night.

12. Technical Jargon or lengthy descriptionsTechnical Jargon or lengthy descriptions of physical phenomena. of physical phenomena. Model ComparisonsModel Comparisons Long Range issues greater than 12 hoursLong Range issues greater than 12 hours unless a “heads up” approach is taken for something very significant. unless a “heads up” approach is taken for something very significant. Example…Major winter storm, Hurricane, Example…Major winter storm, Hurricane, ECT. ECT.

13. Usage The Aviation section of the AFD will be used mostly by Dispatchers (occasionally Pilots) for the following reasons…The Aviation section of the AFD will be used mostly by Dispatchers (occasionally Pilots) for the following reasons… 1) Provides a high level understanding of current weather for that area. Most dispatchers cover multiple geographic regions. 1) Provides a high level understanding of current weather for that area. Most dispatchers cover multiple geographic regions.

14. Provides a “heads up” for additional contingency fuel for things that may not be worthy to be included within the TAF itself.Provides a “heads up” for additional contingency fuel for things that may not be worthy to be included within the TAF itself. Conveys a confidence level of the TAF itself. If there is a lot of “chance of this” and “chance of that” in the Aviation section of the AFD, it will communicate to the Dispatcher that there is a good chance for TAF amendments.Conveys a confidence level of the TAF itself. If there is a lot of “chance of this” and “chance of that” in the Aviation section of the AFD, it will communicate to the Dispatcher that there is a good chance for TAF amendments.

15. Summary Aviation section of the AFD is the opportunity for the NWS forecaster to provide a concise summary of expected and potential weather events during the next 12 hours.Aviation section of the AFD is the opportunity for the NWS forecaster to provide a concise summary of expected and potential weather events during the next 12 hours. It is a chance to build on the TAF and to communicate specifics or reasoning behind the TAF.It is a chance to build on the TAF and to communicate specifics or reasoning behind the TAF. A good Aviation AFD is one that is prepared with airport usages and minimums in mind.A good Aviation AFD is one that is prepared with airport usages and minimums in mind.

16. Airports that are mainly used for general aviation should be handled differently than those with major airline activity.Airports that are mainly used for general aviation should be handled differently than those with major airline activity. Airport hub locations (or large airports) may be handled even differently due to the complexity of operations.Airport hub locations (or large airports) may be handled even differently due to the complexity of operations. Forecasters should be familiar with airport minimums and operating criteria.Forecasters should be familiar with airport minimums and operating criteria. These specifics do not need to be included These specifics do not need to be included in the AFD but should serve as a background to assist a forecaster for what is important at that particular airport terminal. in the AFD but should serve as a background to assist a forecaster for what is important at that particular airport terminal.

17. TAFS are what is used for operational planning decisions.TAFS are what is used for operational planning decisions. The Aviation AFD is a communication mechanism that can benefit both the forecaster and the dispatcher if used correctly. (Liason)The Aviation AFD is a communication mechanism that can benefit both the forecaster and the dispatcher if used correctly. (Liason) Forecasters can describe the details of what went into the TAF and the associated confidence level.Forecasters can describe the details of what went into the TAF and the associated confidence level.

18. Dispatcher can benefit as it provides a background and various options that were looked at and either included or dismissed from the TAFDispatcher can benefit as it provides a background and various options that were looked at and either included or dismissed from the TAF Forecaster insight and additional information compliments the TAF, makes it more effective and helps better manage expectations of the user.Forecaster insight and additional information compliments the TAF, makes it more effective and helps better manage expectations of the user.

19. Experimental AFD Page http://aviationweather.gov/testbed/afd/

20. Thank you Thank you For Attending. Any Questions?