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ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RADAR SURFACE CURRENTS INTO A COASTAL OCEAN MODEL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT Alan F. Blumberg George Meade Bond Professor.

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Presentation on theme: "ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RADAR SURFACE CURRENTS INTO A COASTAL OCEAN MODEL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT Alan F. Blumberg George Meade Bond Professor."— Presentation transcript:

1 ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RADAR SURFACE CURRENTS INTO A COASTAL OCEAN MODEL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT Alan F. Blumberg George Meade Bond Professor Director Davidson Laboratory Stevens Institute of Technology Liang Kuang and Nickitas Georgas I EEE-MTS 12 Ocean Meeting October 17, 2012

2 New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents Water Level Salinity Temperature Waves

3 How? Observe Ground-Truth Serve Automatically Forecast

4 A fully automated system of systems New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System 0.5 hrs + 1.5 hrs + 2.0 hrs

5 C:\Documents and Settings\hroarty\My Documents\COOL\01 CODAR\MARCOOS\Renewal HF radar System

6 6 SLDMB Drifter

7 Methodology—Data Assimilation Data Assimilation- Nudging Scheme 7

8 Non-tidal mean surface currents: HF radar vs. NYHOPS BeforeAfter From Jun 9 th, 2011 to Jul 21 st, 2011. Scale is in 10cm/s. 8

9 Tidal currents(M2 ellipses) after DA Before After From Jun 9 th, 2011 to Jul 21 st, 2011. Scale is in 10cm/s. 9

10 10 RMSE between NYHOPS Hindcast, Drifter currents before and after data assimilation (cm/s) UU_DAU_diffVV_DAV_diff 112.111.80.38.68.50.1 311.110.11.013.712.90.8 4A15.514.70.814.313.70.6 4B17.515.61.916.916.00.9 4C17.216.60.616.814.91.9 average 14.713.61.114.113.01.1 Positive means improvement

11 11 43 (3X) Reseeding particle-tracking simulations

12 12 RMSE of NYHOPS Forecast, Drifter currents before and after data assimilation (cm/s) UU_DAU_diffVV_DAV_diff 117.517.30.211.211.00.2 317.316.11.213.512.41.1 4A19.819.10.716.315.40.9 4B22.420.61.822.320.32.0 4C27.625.91.722.421.41.0 Average 21.0 20.0 1.017.116.30.8

13 13 43 (3X) Reseeding particle-tracking simulations

14 Conclusions NYHOPS established as an urban ocean forecast system – large following with multiple constituencies Using currents derived from drifters for validation: Average RMS errors of hindcast and 1 day forecast shows 8% improvements Particle-tracking simulations showed improvements of 7% (hindcast) and 10% ( 1 day forecast) based on separation distances The future work - assimilation using more advanced schemes, such as Kalman Filter/LRTKF, 3D and 4D var 14

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