1. Evaluation of space-based observation capabilities in OSCAR in support of Gap Analysis 12th European Space Weather Week, Ostend, 23-27 November 2015 Jérôme Lafeuille (WMO) WMO; Name of Department (ND)

2. Acknowledgements  Biz. Bizzarri analysed 900 instruments and developed 1800 rules !  Nils Hettich, Edward Akerboom, Timo Proescholdt developed the OSCAR software  Alain Hilgers and several of his ESTEC colleagues provided guidance on rules and properties for space weather sensors ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 2

3. Outline 1.Motivation 2.OSCAR operational version 3.New features (Version currently in test) 4.Application of the expert system to space weather sensors 5.Perspectives ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 3

4. Motivation  WMO Congress agreed to support space weather operational activities (May 2015). This requires a comprehensive, global observing system, with global data sharing and cooperation  There are hundreds of space-based sensors but who knows which sensors are actually available or planned ? Which ones are relevant for “my” applications ?  A synoptic view of current and future capabilities is needed to perform a Gap Analysis and to support global planning and evolve to a true global observing “system”  WMO thus developed OSCAR “Observing System Capability Analysis and Review” database ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 4

5. OSCAR/Space operational version (www.wmo.int/oscar)www.wmo.int/oscar ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 5 >900 instrument models ~ 1000 visits/day Worldwide users : space agencies, main operational centres, application development centres, consultants, researchers, students… Used for reports, application planning, gap analysis, socio-economic benefit studies, frequency management, etc. in Earth Observation. The Space weather part is not validated.

6. Factual information content  Name, purpose  Mass, power  Orbit (type, alt, ECT, lon)  Launch date, end date, status  Data access, telecom frequencies ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 6 Satellite Programme Agency Instrument Name, purpose Mass, power Type, description, scan mode Resolution FOV, coverage Status Spectral & other characteristics Satellite payload Detailed status, dates Link to calibration Link to event log

7. ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 7

8. 8 Mapping instruments to variables Basis of the gap analysis  Which instruments can measure a given variable?  Which variables can be measured with a given instrument?  Two sides of the same question

9. ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 9

10. Measurement Timeline for Solar EUV flux 10

11. Outline 1.Motivation 2.OSCAR operational version 3.New features (Version currently in test) 4.Application of the expert system to space weather sensors 5.Perspectives ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 11

12. Instruments searchable by properties ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 12 New !

13. Instruments searchable by properties ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 13

14. Instruments searchable by properties ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 14

15. Instruments searchable by properties ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 15 New !

16. New instrument-variable mapping Two independent approaches will be available in OSCAR:  A simplified (trivial) approach : - for each sensor we record the «Mission objectives» stated by the instrument provider (measurements that the sensor has been specified to measure): primary, secondary, and opportunity objectives  An expert system based on physics-based objective rules - concept presented initially at ESWW-11 - implemented in the new version of OSCAR (currently in test) - validated for Earth Observation instruments only ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 16

17. New instrument-variable mapping principle Instrument design requirements e.g:  Energy bands  Spectral channels  Aperture  Resolution  Dynamics  No of channels  Polarization  Etc.. ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 XX X XX X XX X Variable 3 Variable x 17 Variable 2 Variable 4 Variable y Variable 1 XX X XX X XX X Science-based rules Objective assessment

18. Algorithm summary ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 18 Type 1 Type 2 Each instrument type has a set of properties which define a particular metrics Instrument has a profile P in this metrics __ __ __ __ __ Variable U Variable V Variable W For a given variable we look at all rules applying to this variable and test the applicable instruments against these rules For an instrument, the rule providing the best score defines the relevance of this instrument for the considered variable. Rule

19.  Enables objective comparison of potential performance of different classes of sensors  Performance drivers are defined objectively on the basis of physical measuring principles  Each instrument is characterized by fully objective features  «Rules» are purely declarative – can be updated independently of the software itself - facilitating scientific maintenance  Transparent: the rules can be submitted to external reviews  Proved very efficient for the 600+ Earth Observation instruments (~ 1800 Rules for 120 variables) ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 19 Benefit of this expert system approach

20. Outline 1.Motivation 2.OSCAR operational version 3.New features (Version currently in test) 4.Application of the expert system to space weather sensors 5.Perspectives ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 20

21. Applying this approach to space weather sensors Step 1: Define an instrument typology Step 2: For each type of sensor, identify the «properties», i.e. the key specifications driving the performance Step 3: For each variable, develop rules quantifying the potential relevance of a sensor to measure a variable, as a function of the properties Step 4: Enter the applicable properties of each actual sensor ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 21 Work in progress !

22. Step1: space weather sensor typology ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 22 Solar activity monitors Solar or space imager (incl. heliospheric imagers and coronograph) Solar magnetograph (imaging spectrometer) and velocity sensor Solar photometer or spectrometer Solar microwave radiometer or radio receiver Other solar monitors Solar wind and interplanetary monitors Solar wind radiometer/spectrometer Solar wind particle spectrometer Interplanetary magnetometer Electric field/radio/other sensors(Charge det., dosimeter, plasma density probe) Geospace monitors Geospace radiometer/spectrometer Magnetospheric particle spectrometer Magnetometer Geospace electric field/radio/other sensors (Charge det., dosimeter, plasma drift) Aurora or special imager (including plasmasphere UV)

23. Step 2: Properties for several sensor types (examples) ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 23 Solar imagersParticle spectrometersMagnetometers/ Electric field sensor Includes 17.3 nmEnergy min for electron flux (keV) 3-axis magnetometer Includes 19.3-19.5 nmEnergy max for electron flux (keV) Uncertainty (nT) Includes 28.4 nmEnergy min for proton flux (keV) Resolution (nT) Includes He-II Ly-α (30.4 nm)Energy max for proton flux (keV) Response frequency (Hz) Includes Far UV (117-170 nm)Angular range (solid angle) in sr Measures electric field Includes H Ly-α (121.65 nm) Angular resolution (% of 2π sr) Uncertainty (mV/m) Includes CaII K (393.4 nm)Time resolution (s) (sampling rate) Dynamic range Acquires White light Dynamics Is a charge detector Has polarimetric capability Sensitivity Is a dosimeter Has Doppler capabilityIs Pointing to the SunIs a plasma drift meter Is a SpectrometerEnergy spectral resolutionIs a plasma density probe Is a coronagraphDetects Electrons, protons FoV inner/outer limit (SolarRadii)Detects alfa, heavy ions Spatial resolution (km or arcsec)Detects neutrons

24. Step 3: Examples of rules For this Variable With this type of instrument If the following conditions are trueThen the relevance is Solar wind density Particle spectrometer Detects protons, 0-10 keV Sun pointing ; Solid angle >= 2π Energy spectral resol < 10% (resp. 20 %) Time resol < 10s Dynamics 1:100,000; Sensitivity (TBD) Excellent (resp. Very high) Solar wind density Particle spectrometer Detects electrons, 0-100 eV Solid angle >= 2π Energy spectral resol < 10% (resp. 20 %) Time resol < 10s Dynamics 1:100,000; Sensitivity (TBD) Excellent (resp. Very high) Solar X-ray flux Solar photometer/ spectrometer X-Ray detector; include [0.05-0.8 nm] range FoV includes whole Sun; Time resol < 1 min Excellent ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 24

25. Step 4: Populating the Instrument properties Information gathered for OSCAR -1 needs to be converted into the «Properties» framework Much of the required information is missing for space weather sensors Input from space agencies /instrument developers is dramatically needed ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 25

26. Example of Gap Analysis (on incomplete test data set) ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 26 Variable selected: Proton differential directional flux Method selected « Simplified » Gap Analysis

27. Outline 1.Motivation 2.OSCAR operational version 3.New features (Version currently in test) 4.Application of the expert system to space weather sensors 5.Perspectives ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 27

28. Discussion Experience with OSCAR for Earth Observation sensors suggests that OSCAR can be very useful for the SW community – Promote awareness /informed use of space-based sensors – Supports overall planning and gap analysis The expert system approach can become a collaborative tool – The «Rules» and properties can be reviewed by expert groups – Thus improving the evaluation, building confidence, shared ownership – Can contribute to capacity building Dependent on support from instrument providing agencies – Support dramatically needed to share detailed sensor characteristics Collaboration is welcome to the development of rules and for betatesting ESWW-12, Ostend, November 2015 28

29. Thank you for your attention! Please visit: www.wmo.int/oscar Your feedback is welcome www.wmo.int