1. RAW and FASTNET for the Collaborative Study of Natural Aerosol Events

2. Real-Time Aerosol Watch (RAW) RAW is an open communal facility to study non-industrial (e.g. dust and smoke) aerosol events, including detection, tracking and impact on PM and haze. RAW output will be directly applicable, to public health protection, Regional Haze rule, SIP and model development as well as toward stimulating the scientific community. The main asset of RAW is the community of data analysts, modelers, managers and others participating in the production of actionable knowledge from observations, models and human reasoning The RAW community will be supported by a networking infrastructure based on open Internet standards (web services) and a set of web-tools evolving under the umbrella of Fast Aerosol Sensing Tools for Natural Event Tracking (FASTNET). The initial components of FASTNET are the Community Website for free interaction, the Analysts Console for diverse data access and the Managers Console for AQ management decision support.

3. Regional Haze Rule: Natural Aerosols Goal is to attain natural conditions by 2064; Baseline is established during 2000-2004 First SIP & Natural Cond. estimate in 2008; SIP & Natural Cond. Revisions every 10 yrs Natural haze is due to natural windblown dust, biomass smoke and other natural processes Man-made haze is due industrial activities AND man-perturbed smoke and dust emissions A fraction of the man-perturbed smoke and dust is assigned to natural by policy decisions

4. Summary of EPA Haze Rule on Natural Conditions The goal of the EPA visibility program is reaching the natural visibility conditions. Estimating the overall visibility conditions and the natural conditions establishes how ‘‘close’’ a Class I area is to the goal, i.e. the magnitude of the human-induced ‘exceedance’ over the natural. The default annual natural visibility is 11-12 deciview for the East, 8 dv for the West. The regional natural visibility is to be derived from sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and crustal material estimates using IMPROVE methodology. EPA along with States, tribes, and FLMs to develop and refine the technical guidance on estimating natural conditions (e.g. natural fire and dust) States, in turn, will work with the FLMs, tribes and EPA in estimating their natural conditions using these guidelines at each Class I area. The Regional Haze Rule provides initial default values for the Natural Haze Conditions The default haze for the West is 8 deciviews while for the East is 11 deciviews Obtained by estimating the natural concentration of SO4, EC, OC, NO3, Fine, Coarse Soil Weighing each aerosol component by corresponding extinction efficiencies. (Trijonis, 1990)

5. Natural Aerosol Events: Distinguishing Features Intense – event concentration much higher than from manmade emission Large – frequently global-scale impact Episodic – main impact on the extreme, not on the average concentrations Seasonal – dust and smoke events are strongly seasonal at any location Uncontrollable – frequently natural and or extra-jurisdictional

6. Significant Natural Events by RPO Judged qualitatively based on current surface and satellite data Natural forest fires and windblown dust are judged to be the key contributors to regional haze The dominant natural sources include locally produced and long-range transported smoke and dust This project will quantify the absolute and relative contribution of natural sources for each RPO WRAP Local Smoke Local Dust Asian Dust VISTAS Local Smoke Sahara Dust MRPO Local Smoke Canada Smoke Local Dust CENRAP Local Smoke Mexico/Canada Smoke Local Dust Sahara Dust MANE-VU Canada Smoke

7. Background: Natural Event Examples Several past natural aerosol events have been tracked and extensively documented Asian Dust over the West CoastMexican Forest Smoke over the EUS

8. RAW-FASTNET: Long-term plan Near Real-time Natural Event Analysis Acquire and archive (the volatile) real-time data on PM/haze for current events (2004+). Determine real-time the space-time-composition-optics pattern of PM for events over North America Estimate the origin (natural/manmade), PM2.5 fraction and visibility impairment by source type and aerosol species for class I areas Provide fast notification and characterization (space-time pattern, projected impacts) to a broad “user community” and solicit non-routine data, feedback and expertise from the community Retrospective Natural Event Analysis For major natural events, synthesize rapidly available information with slower data streams, e.g. aerosol chemistry; estimate the impact on Class I areas Quantify the contribution of smaller (more frequent) natural aerosol events and and the “just discernable” natural/manmade distinction Statistically characterize the long-term natural aerosol composition and visibility impacts for Class I areas Extend these analyses to the baseline period (2000-2004) of the Regional Haze rule Provide natural aerosol emission estimates for selected aerosol/haze modeling periods

9. Data Analysis Matrix Data Sources, Tools for Analysis and Collaboration, Products and Decision Support sagfsdh Retrospective Anal. Months-years Now Analysis Days Predictive Analysis Days-years Data Sources & Types All the Real-Time data + NPS IMPROVE Aer. Chem. EPA Speciation EPA PM10/PM2.5 EPA CMAQ Full Chem. Model EPA PM2.5Mass NWS ASOS Visibility, WEBCAMs NASA MODIS, GOES, TOMS etc. NOAA WEATHER & Wind NAAPS MODEL Simulation NAAPS MODEL Forecast NOAA/EPA CMAQ? Data Analysis Tools & Methods Full chemical model simulation Diagnostic & inverse modeling Chemical source apportionment Multiple event statistics Spatio-temporal overlays Multi-sensory data integration Back & forward trajectories Pattern analysis Emission and met. forecasts Full chemical model Data assimilation Parcel tagging, tracking Communication Collaboration Coordination Methods Tech Reports for reg. support Peer reviewed scientific papers Science-AQ mgmt. interaction Reconciliation of perspectives Analyst and managers consoles Open, inclusive communication Data assimilation methods Community data & idea sharing Open, public forecasts Model-data comparison Modeler-data analyst comm. Analysis Products Quantitative natural aer. concr. Natural source attribution Comparison to manmade aer. Current Aerosol Pattern Evolving Event Summary Causality (dust, smoke, sulfate) Future natural emissions Simulated conc. pattern Future location of high conc. Decision Support Jurisdiction: nat./manmade State Implementation Plans, (SIP) PM/Haze Crit. Documents, Regs Jurisdiction: nat./manmade Triggers for management action Public information & decisions Statutory & policy changes Management action triggers Progress tracking

10. Bad News: The mere characterization requires many tools. Some tools sample a small subset of the xDim aerosol data space These need extrapolation, e.g. single particle analysis Other tools get integral measures of several dimensions These require de-convolution of the integral, e.g. satellite sensors Aerosols: Many Dimensions Compared to gases (X, Y, Z, T), the aerosol system has four extra dimensions(D, C, F, M). –Spatial dimensions X, YSatellites, dense networks –HeightZLidar, soundings –Time TContinuous monitoring –Particle size DSize-segregated sampling –Particle CompositionCSpeciated analysis –Particle Shape/Form FMicroscopy –Ext/Internal Mixture MMicroscopy Satellite-Integral

11. Aerosols: Opportunity and Challenge Good news: The aerosol system is self-describing. –Once the aerosol is characterized (size-composition, shape) and –Spatio-temporal pattern are established, –=> The aerosol system describes much of its history through the properties and pattern, e.g source type (dust, smoke, haze), formation mechanisms, atmospheric interactions. and transformations. –The ‘aerosol’ dimensions (D, C, F, M) are most useful for establishing the sources and effects, including some of the processes. –The Source of can be considered an additional, ‘derived’ aerosol dimension. Analysts challenge: Deciphering the handwriting contained in the data –Chemical fingerprinting/source apportionment –Meteorological transport analysis –Multidimensional data extrapolation, de-convolution and fusion

12. FASTNET: Year 1 activity Near Real-time Natural Event Analysis Acquire and archive (the volatile) real-time data on PM/haze for current events (2004+). (ASOS, GOES) Determine real-time the space-time-composition-optics pattern of PM for events over North America (one future event) Estimate the origin (natural/manmade), PM2.5 fraction and visibility impairment by source type and aerosol species for class I areas (one recent event) Provide fast notification and characterization (space-time pattern, projected impacts) to a broad “user community” and solicit non-routine data, feedback and expertise from the community (prototype ) Retrospective Natural Event Analysis For major natural events, synthesize rapidly available information with slower data streams, e.g. aerosol chemistry; estimate the impact on Class I areas (one recent event) Quantify the contribution of smaller (more frequent) natural aerosol events and and the “just discernable” natural/manmade distinction Statistically characterize the long-term natural aerosol composition and visibility impacts for Class I areas Extend these analyses to the baseline period (2000-2004) of the Regional Haze rule Provide natural aerosol emission estimates for selected aerosol/haze modeling periods

13. Web-based Catalog of Haze-relevant Real-time Data Develop a list of haze-relevant real-time data sources Describe the accessibility and other features of each dataset Prioritize the dataset list by suitability for FASTNET Expose the dataset list for community contributions and comments.

14. Identification of useful real-time data for archiving and processing Identify haze-relevant real-time datasets that require archiving (ASOS, GOES ?) Identify haze-relevant real-time data that require ‘expert processing’ (ASOS, GOES ?)

15. Real-Time Acquisition, Processing, Arching and Delivery of ASOS Visibility Data Acquire in real time ASOS weather data from the combined 1200 station NWS-FAA-DOD ASOS network made public through the NOAA Weather Service websites. Develop and implement ‘expert processing algorithms’ for the processing of truncated ASOS visibility monitoring data using filters and correction factors for: –Data quality –Weather influence Develop and implement ‘expert processing algorithms’ for the processing of original (not) truncated ASOS visibility Develop an archival and open data access system for 1200 station, hourly, truncated but ‘expert processed’ ASOS visibility data.

16. Right. SeaWiFS satellite and METAR surface haze shown near-real time in the Voyager distributed data browser Below. SeaWiFS, METAR and TOMS Absorbing Aerosol Index superimposed Satellite data are fetched from NASA GSFC; surface data from NWS/CAPITA servers Task 3: Illustration of RAW for Quebec Smoke, July 6, 2002 See http://capita.wustl.edu/aerosoleventshttp://capita.wustl.edu/aerosolevents

17. Historical natural event analysis Select a specific aerosol event (2002 Quebec smoke transport?) Acquisition of multiple haze-relevant information sources Processing and integration of multi-sensory data Analyze the historical natural aerosol event (smoke or dust) –Establish the origins of the aerosol emission –Spatial and temporal aerosol concentrations patterns, incl. speciated mass –Estimate visibility impairment (reconstructed extinction) during the event –Estimate the absolute and contribution of the natural source.

18. 2002 Quebec Smoke over the Northeast Smoke (Organics) and Sulfate concentration data from VIEWS integrated database DVoy overlay of sulfate and organics during the passage of the smoke plume

19. Real-time aerosol event tracking demonstration Monitor the daily aerosol pattern through the Analysts Console Based on group assessment, select an ongoing event for trawcking Acquisition of multiple haze-relevant information sources Processing and integration of multi-sensory data Demonstrate a real-time data distribution through open web interface Analyze the natural aerosol event real time –Establish the origins of the aerosol emission –Spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol concentrations –Estimate visibility impairment during the event –Estimate the contribution of the natural source.

20. FASTNET: The Web Tools system Data integration, delivery and decision support Analysts Dashboards (a la Westphal website, CAPITA, DVoy) An array of web-pages for one-stop access to current PM monitoring data including surface PM monitoring, satellite monitoring, weather and forecast models etc. Taps into the on-line data services of EPA and RPOs, NASA, and NOAA and provides the most comprehensive picture available of the current and recent multidimensional aerosol pattern. The emphasis is on timeliness and inclusiveness. The degree of integration for some data may be limited. Interactive Virtual Workgroup Website (a la CAPITA interactive event sites) This is an open facility to allow active participation of a diverse virtual community in the acquisition, interpretation and discussion of the on-line PM monitoring data. Participants can contribute information sources relevant to the current events (e.g. special data, web cam images, news reports), insights on data quality and interpretation and collectively prepare summaries. It is the ‘organizational memory’ of the community through via links to other analyses, external resources, etc Air Quality Managers Console (a la AirNOW but for manager types) The console helps PM managers make decisions during major aerosol events. Delivers a subset of the PM data relevant to the AQ managers, which includes the event summary reports prepared by the Virtual workgroups. The console manages the ‘watch’ assignments of human observers at the Analysts Dashboard and issues alerts to AQ managers and other interested parties.

21. July 2002 Quebec Smoke Interactive Virtual Workgroup Website at CAPITAInteractive Virtual Workgroup Website

22. Analysts Console: Ad-hoc integration of heterogeneous networked data streams Real-time EPA PM data will be accesses and combined with NASA, NOAA and other data to explore aerosol properties, spatial and temporal pattern, transport pathways and source regions. SeaWiFS Reflectance, PM2.5 and Fire Locations, Idaho, 2000/08/19 SeaWiFS-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth, Fire Locations in Idaho 2000/08/19

23. Real-time Aerosol Watch: Analyst Console Managers Console Event Com. Website Comments Misc. Data Weblinks Data Providers Value-adders Value-adding clients Event Summary Event Data Data Providers Actionable Info. AIRNOW

24. Air Quality Managers Console (STI) FASTNET Air Quality Manager Console Fast Aerosol Sensing Tools for Natural Event Tracking Date Time 08/16/2000 12:00 Map Navigation Tools Zoom In Zoom Out Pan Full Extent Print Map Select RPO Region NESCAUM Fires DataOptions View Map Legend View Data Catalog Data Tools Visible Data Layer PM 2. 5 ASOS Optical Depth Fire X Download Data EVENTS ANALYST SUMMARY