1. Incorporating Time of Day Modeling into FSUTMS – Phase II Time of Day (Peak Spreading) Model Presentation to FDOT SPO 23 March 2011 Heinrich McBean

2. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Background ► Identified as a top priority by Model Task Force in 2008 ► Research project divided into two phases  Phase I: Fixed TOD Factoring and Procedure Development  Phase II: Development and implementation of TOD peak spreading model. 2

3. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Why Consider Time of Day Modeling ► Time at which travel occurs vary by time of day and location ► Variation results in peaking of demand during weekday AM and PM work commute ► Knowledge of period travel demand provides useful insights for planning and operations Source: FHWA, Our Nation’s Highway, 2010 3

4. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Why Incorporate TOD in FSUTMS? ► Required by FTA for New Starts/Small Starts Alternatives Analysis. ► Required by FHWA and EPA for Air Quality Conformity Analysis. ► Required for transportation policies that have temporal sensitivity, e.g.:  Variable Tolling,  Managed Lanes,  Congestion Pricing,  Travel Demand Management ► It is good modeling practice. Source: FTA Workshop on Travel Forecasting for New Starts, March 2009 4

5. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS How To Incorporate TOD Modeling ► Fixed TOD factors (The common practice).  Derived from local observed travel patterns.  Relatively easy to implement.  Assumes that travel patterns will remain the same in the future.  Not sensitive to transportation LOS changes. 5

6. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS How To Incorporate TOD Modeling ► Econometric TOD model  Sensitive to changes in transportation LOS  Can be used to model “peak spreading”  Limited only by model structure and data in the model  Requires somewhat more work to estimate and calibrate than fixed TOD factors 6

7. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Approach: Proof of COncept ► Acquire test model and review model structure ► Acquire and prepare base year travel data ► Develop fixed TOD factors for model region based on observed local travel ► Restructure the test model ► Implement fixed TOD factors in the base year model ► Implement and test TOD peak spreading model ► Model calibration and validation 7

8. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS The Test Model ► Model Region: Capital Region (CRTPA) ► Base Year: 2007 ► Model Base Year Inputs: SE data, and all base year inputs provided by CRTPA. 8

9. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Base Year Travel Data  Not essential for proof of concept  Hourly traffic counts (Florida DOT and City of Tallahassee, Other local jurisdictions)  Transit on-board survey (City of Tallahassee)  Household travel survey data (Florida DOT)  Census/ACS Journey to Work data 9

10. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Review of TEST Model ► FSUTMS four-step model ► Daily highway assignment, Peak and Off-peak transit assignment ► Five internal trip purposes generated and distributed (HBW, HBSH, HBSR, HBO, NHB) ► Three trip purposes modeled in mode choice (HBW, HBO, NHB) ► No feedback of congested impedance ► No car-sufficiency data ► Autocon(?) 10

11. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Develop Local TOD Factors ► Not essential for proof of concept ► Develop fixed TOD factors for model area ► Use 2009 NHTS data ► Provide methodology for other planning jurisdictions to develop their TOD factors. 11

12. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Existing Structure of the Test Model Trip Generation (Daily) Trip Distribution (Daily) Mode Choice (Daily) Trip Assignment: (Highway – Daily; Transit – PK/OP) Any Model Scenario Year 12

13. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Restructure The Test Model Note: For each global iteration the Future Year model is run for All TOD periods before the TOD peak spreading sub- model is applied. 13 Apply TOD Peak Spreading) Sub- Model by Trip Purpose Trip Generation Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors (9 TOD P/A Tables) Trip Distribution by TOD Mode Choice by TOD Highway Assignment by TOD Skim Base Year LOS by TOD Trip Generation Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors (9 TOD P/A Tables) Trip Distribution by TOD Mode Choice by TOD Assignment by TOD Skim Future Year LOS by TOD Base YearFuture Year Convergence? No Yes END Transit Assignment (PK/OP) Transit Assignment

14. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Restructure The Test Model ► Nine TOD periods:  Very Early AM (3:00 to 5:59)  Early AM (6:00 to 6:59)  AM Peak (7:00 - 8.59)  Late AM (9:00 to 9:59)  Midday (10:00 AM -1:59 PM)  Early PM (2:00 to 2:59)  PM Peak (3:00 PM – 5:59)  Late PM (6:00 – 6:59)  Night (7:00 PM to 2:59AM) 14

15. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Restructure The Test Model ► Internal Trip Purpose by Direction:  Home-based Work  HBW to Work  HBW to Home  Home-based Shopping  HBSH to Shop  HBSH to Home  Home-based Social/Recreation  HBSR to SocRec  HBSR to Home  Home-based Other  HBO to Other  HBO to Home 15

16. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS TOD Peak Spreading Sub-Model Where, =origin and destination TAZs; u=trip purpose from 1 through 9 g=TOD period from 1 through 9 n=global iteration with TOD choice feedback, =trip tables by TOD slices produced before the first global iteration =total daily trip tables produced before the first global iteration =trip tables by TOD slices for the next global iteration = difference in LOS between the current iteration and the base-year scenario =estimated/calibrated dispersion coefficient (peak-spreading elasticity). 16

17. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS TOD Peak Spreading Sub-Model ► Incremental logit model ► Driven by difference in travel impedance for modeled year versus base year ► Apply in future year where significant congestion growth is expected ► Requires all TOD periods to be modeled explicitly. ► Model applied for each trip purpose independently ► Creates adjusted trip tables after highway assignment for iterative feedback through trip distribution, mode choice and assignment 17

18. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Feedback to Trip Distribution Test Convergence All Converge? No Yes END 18 Calculate absolute difference (cell by cell) in each trip table (current compared to previous) for all TOD and all Purposes and compare result to convergence criterion, δ. Calculate Trip Tables for next feedback iteration: Calculate Difference in LOS for TOD Period (Future Year compared to Base Year:

19. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Additional Thoughts… ► Run time, in general ► Feedback of impedance in Base Year ► Averaging of adjusted trip tables ► TOD factors for Truck & Taxi, IE and EE trip purposes 19

20. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Questions? Thank You! 20