1. Emerging Issue Analysis, Age-Cohort Analysis, Kondratiev Long-Wave Jim Dator Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science University of Hawaii

2. Another theory and method is “Emerging Issue Analysis” Everything that exists now at one time did not exist. Every problem/opportunity (P/O) of the present once did not exit

3. Everything that exists now went through an “S” curve of growth From “nothing of” to barely “something” through a period of rapid growth into a huge “problem/opportunity”

4. And then either to death, or downward to swing up again in an (endless?) cycle or spiral.

6. Most futurists focus on “rapid growth” using “trend analysis” (extrapolate data forward). We prefer also “emerging issue analysis”

7. Finding things at their very first, immature “emergence” before they are well-formed trends, and certainly before they are fully-formed P/Os.

8. As emerging issues, they may be shaped to our preference. As problem/opportunities, we must deal with them on their terms, not as we might prefer.

9. “Trends” are fully-emerged. They can be tracked empirically, though their true forward trajectory is uncertain.

10. True emerging issues are very difficult to “see”. They are in hidden literature, in deviant, dangerous, marginal groups.

11. They require special techniques called “environmental scanning”. And they illustrate Dator’s Second Law because they often appear to be “ridiculous”

12. Identifying emerging issue, developing plausible scenarios of their development, valuable for decision- makers now.

13. Another theory that many futurists also use is age-cohort analysis to explain and anticipate social change

14. Pre-natal and early childhood experiences influence adult behavior: food, drugs, child-rearing, “galvanizing experiences”

15. Each age-cohort (or generation) has its own defining experiences and lives in its own “world”

16. When one age-cohort leaves power and a new one enters, society changes

17. William Strauss & Neil Howe Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 - 2069

18. COHORT TYPES Strauss & Howe IDEALISTS REACTIVES CIVICS ADAPTIVES

20. Another theory futures use: Kondratiev Long Waves (Also Kondratieff or Kondratief) N. Kondratiev, Russian economist early 20 th Century Discovered technologically-driven long-waves 50-60 years duration, beginning 1789

21. Upswing: opportunities, optimism, war Downswing: stagnation, pessimism Also beginning of new technologies that drive new upswing Now in upswing of 5 th Wave.