1. Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

2. How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

3. Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment Health-Welfare Energy- Environment Socio-Economic

4. Causality: Linear System Model

5. Trend of Indicators SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu 1960s 1980s 1990s

6. Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil GasElectric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) iFuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop., P Metals Mercury a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- jjiiij Consumption of Goods and Energy:GE =  a i P Fuels and Materials Flow:FM =   a i b ij P Emission of Pollutants:EM =    a i b ij c jk P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM)

7. Coal Production and S Content

8. Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998 In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

9. Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Spatial Transfer Matrices

10. Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation Env 449 - 2007

11. Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing

12. Close-Loop Frameworks Three Frameworks: –Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science) –Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance) –Causality Loop (Social-Material Science) Main Challenges: - Balancing Loops - Network Effects in Causality - Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare