Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel.

Published byClement Crawford Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel."— Presentation transcript:

1 El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill A cknowledgement: Jordan McLeod, the new regional climatologist at SERCC

2 El Nino 101 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/can-we-blame-el-niño

3 1998 1983 El Nino La Nina El Nino 101 Occurs every 2-7 years http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014- february-quick-look/

4 El Nino 101 http://gfdl.noaa.gov/~atw/vgrp/enso/

5 Typical El Niño Winter Pattern Image credit: Illinois State Water Survey (with data from NOAA) El Nino 101

6 El Niño and the Caribbean Average temperature (°F) and precipitation (inches) during the dry season (December through April) for 16 observing stations across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Results are stratified by ENSO phase. Graphics provided by NOAA NWS San Juan. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=enso2010 El Nino 101

7 Event RankYearPeak ONI (°C) 12015/2016+2.5 (projected) 21997/1998+2.3 31982/1983+2.1 41972/1973+2.0 51965/1966+1.8 61957/1958+1.7 71987/1988+1.6 81991/1992+1.6 92009/2010+1.3 102002/2003+1.3 111963/1964+1.2 121968/1969+1.0 131994/1995+1.0 142006/2007+1.0 Ranking of top El Niño events (Peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) > +1.0°C) Data obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Center 1950s-1960s 1970s-1980s 1990s-2000s Color coded by decades 2010s El Nino 101

8 1997-98 Strong El Nino Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool. Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

9 2009-2010 Moderate El Nino Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool. Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

10 Record-breaking winter (DJF) rainfall across Florida and the coastal Carolinas during the 1997/1998 and 2009/2010 El Niño events Data obtained from xmACIS2 (NOAA Regional Climate Centers) Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

11 Winter (DJF) tornado activity by ENSO phase across Florida and remainder of the Southeast region (1954–2014) Florida Rest of Southeast (AL, GA, SC, NC, VA) Data obtained from NOAA Storm Prediction Center Impacts of Recent El Nino Events ENSO phase# of seasonsTornado countAverageMaximum La Niña183592047 (2007/2008) Neutral223221548 (2005/2006) El Niño20186929 (2002/2003) ENSO phase# of seasonsTornado countAverageMaximum La Niña18136821 (1974/1975) Neutral22124620 (1978/1979) El Niño202121146 (1997/1998)

12 Ranking of top 10 negative AO winters (DJF) since 1950 RankYearMean AO (std. dev.) 12009/2010-3.27 21976/1977-2.54 31968/1969-2.18 41962/1963-1.85 51969/1970-1.82 61985/1986-1.71 71959/1960-1.51 81965/1966-1.45 92000/2001-1.29 101978/1979-1.28 Data from NOAA Climate Prediction Center Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Winter Weather Events Winter weather patterns also shaped by other circulation patterns Example: Arctic Oscillation (AO). Negative AO = cold conditions across SE Winters with both a Negative AO & El Nino

13 Courtesy of NOAA NCDC http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/2009-2010-Cold-Season.pdf Snow depth on January 20 th 2010 Impacts of Recent El Nino Events El Nino and negative AO = More snow, which can extended far to the south

Download ppt "El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel."

Similar presentations

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.

Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.
Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist.

Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist.
The 2010-2011 Missouri River Flood: An experimental rapid assessment of weather and climate conditions leading to high flows Robert WebbDoug Kluck David.

The Missouri River Flood: An experimental rapid assessment of weather and climate conditions leading to high flows Robert WebbDoug Kluck David.
Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete.

Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete.
Seasonal Climate Forecast (Forecast Method) (Revised: May 26, 2012) This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation.

Seasonal Climate Forecast (Forecast Method) (Revised: May 26, 2012) This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation.
El Nino, La Nina, and their Affects in Oklahoma. El Nino Conditions Warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters Trade wind differences –

El Nino, La Nina, and their Affects in Oklahoma. El Nino Conditions Warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters Trade wind differences –
Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University.

Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University.
Matt Masek NWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte, NE May 25, 2011.

Matt Masek NWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte, NE May 25, 2011.
Hazardous Weather Ahead and Outlook for Winter 2009-2010 Dave Reynolds -MTR Dan Keeton - STO Meteorologists in Charge weather.gov/SanFrancisco or /Sacramento.

Hazardous Weather Ahead and Outlook for Winter Dave Reynolds -MTR Dan Keeton - STO Meteorologists in Charge weather.gov/SanFrancisco or /Sacramento.
Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11
2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10 Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,
Tahiti, Darwin, and pressure oscillations. SOI = Tahiti - Darwin (normalized)

Tahiti, Darwin, and pressure oscillations. SOI = Tahiti - Darwin (normalized)
El Nino and La Nina An important atmospheric variation that has an average period of three to seven years. Goes between El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina (ENSO.

El Nino and La Nina An important atmospheric variation that has an average period of three to seven years. Goes between El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina (ENSO.
Winter Outlook (2011-2012) Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI / Oregon Chapter of the AMS 29 October 2011 Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI.

Winter Outlook ( ) Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI / Oregon Chapter of the AMS 29 October 2011 Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI.
Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.

Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.
Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University.

Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University.
SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.

SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.
An Overview of California Climate Michael Anderson, State Climatologist.

An Overview of California Climate Michael Anderson, State Climatologist.
Welcome to the South Florida 2010 Summer/Rainy Season Outlook Robert Molleda Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Miami/South Florida Forecast Office.

Welcome to the South Florida 2010 Summer/Rainy Season Outlook Robert Molleda Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Miami/South Florida Forecast Office.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google