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CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009

2 PRODUCTION STATES SINALOA (60%) (RAINFALL AND IRRIGATION) SONORA (40%)(IRRIGATION) BAJA (10%) (IRRIGATION) MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

3 INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL SIZE OF 2009 CROP IN SINALOA MAINLY DUE TO: 1. GOOD EARLY RAIN IN OCTOBER, VERY SCARCE LATER RAINS 2. RELATIVELY WARM WINTER 3. HARVEST PROGRESS AT 95% MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

4 SONORA AND BAJA, EXPECT LOWER YIELDS THAN LAST YEAR DUE TO: 1. RELATIVELY WARM WINTER 2. HARVEST PROGRESS AT 3% 3. COMPLETION OF HARVEST EXPECTED BY THE END OF MAY MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

5 CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 IN HECTARES STATEHECTARES 2009HECTARES 2008HA CHANGE% CHANGE SINALOA IRRIGATION28,96725,8213,14612.18% SINALOA RAINFALL12,32011,4348867.74% SONORA19,01521,260-2,245-10.56% BAJA4,8505,230-380-7.26% TOTAL65,15263,7451,407-2.20%

6 MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009 CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 AVERAGE ESTIMATED YIELDS IN MT STATE2009 MT PER HA2008 MT PER HAMT CHANGE% CHANGE SINALOA RAINFALL0.60.9-0.3-33.3% SINALOA IRRIGATION1.652.1-0.45-21.4% SONORA2.12.330-9.87% BAJA2.12.1000%

7 MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009 CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 IN METRIC TONS STATE 2009 IN MT2008 IN MTDIF IN MT% CHANGE SINALOA IRRIGATION47,79554,224-6,429-11.9% SINALOA RAINFALL7,39210,290-2,898-28.2% SONORA39,93149,961-10,030-20.07% BAJA10,18510,983-798-7.26% TOTAL105,303125,458-20,155-16.06%

8 ESTIMATED TONNAGE HARVEST IS LOWER BY 16% PRODUCTION OF 105,000 MT TRANSLATE INTO 90,000 MT EXPORT QUALITY CARRYOVER ESTIMATED AT 16,000 MT TIGHT SUPPLY BASED ON 2008 EXPORTS MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

9 CHICK PEA 2008 EXPORT PER MONTH IN KG JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNE 3,752,2284,732,81413,261,6169,692,7538,966,39010,667,465 JULYAUGSEPOCTNOVDIC 10,776,75211,455,07812,119,62410,476,5617,092,2995,808,913 TOTAL108,802,493

10 2009 IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES VS 2008 CURRENT PRICES 20% TO 25% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR AVERAGE, WHAT WILL DEMAND DO? DIFFERENCE IN PRICE TO INDIAN CHICK PEAS IS NOT AS WIDE, WHAT WILL DEMAND DO? MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

11 AT TODAY´S PRICES LEVELS FARMERS HAVE VERY LIMITED INCENTIVES FOR PLANTING CHICK PEAS FOR 2009 WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF SHORTFALL WILL HAVE A MARKET INFLUENCE AND WHEN? MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 CHICK PEAS 2009

12 PRODUCTION STATES BY IMPORTANCE AND PERIODS OF HARVEST 1. ZACATECAS (OCT-DIC) 2. DURANGO (OCT-DIC) 3. SAN LUIS (OCT-DIC) 4. CHIHUAHUA (SEP-NOV) 5. SINALOA (JAN-MAR) ´09 6. NAYARIT (JAN-MAR) ´09 MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009

13 SIX STATES ACCOUNT FOR 70% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION SEEDING EXTENSION INCREASE BY 4.3% OVERALL VS LAST CROP YIELDS DECREASE FOR MOST REGIONS, AND FINAL PRODUCTION TONNAGE DECREASE BY 1.36% VS LAST CROP MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009

14 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2008 VS 2007 IN HECTARES STATE2008 IN HA2007 IN HAHA CHANGE% CHANGE CHIHUAHUA99,76980,50819,26123.92% DURANGO205,215202,0293,1861.58% NAYARIT ´0949,83857,181-7,343-12.84 SAN LUIS108,797108,5912060.19% SINALOA ´0992,85182,70410,14712.27% ZACATECAS441,396425,68615,7103.69% TOTAL997,866956,69941,1674.30%

15 MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2008 VS 2007 IN MT STATE2008 IN MT2007 IN MTHA CHANGE% CHANGE CHIHUAHUA75,36061,82913,53121.88% DURANGO103,819109,621-5,802-5.29% NAYARIT 200951,30070,345-19,045-27.07% SAN LUIS60,61739,58621,03153.12% SINALOA 2009128,561139,448-10,887-7.80% ZACATECAS221,930229,620-7,690-3.34% TOTAL641,587650,449-8,862-1.36%

16 EVEN WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN PRODUCTION, DOMESTIC PRICES HIGHER THAT LAST YEAR FOR MOST VARIETIES HIGHER PRICES DUE TO VERY LIMITED CARRYOVER INTO 2008 HARD TO ESTIMATE CARRYOVER DUE TO LACK OF INFORMATION AND HIGH NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009

17 TOTAL EDIBLE BEAN CARRYOVER 2005 TO 2008 YEARCARRYOVER IN ´000 OF METRIC TONS 2005200 TO 240 2006180 TO 210 2007130 TO 160 200820 TO 40

18 LAST TIME CARRY OVER WAS AT THIS LEVEL WAS IN 2001 SUPPLY FOR MOST BEANS IS AT SHORTAGE TOTAL SHORTAGE ESTIMATED AT 150,000 MT FOR ALL VARIETIES SHORTAGE REFLECTS ON INCREASES ON IMPORTS MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009

19 FARMERS HIGHLY INCENTIVIZED TO SEEDING EDIBLE BEANS FOR 2009 MOST REGIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PLATING OF ALL VARIETIES OF BEANS FINAL PLANTING INTENTION DEPENDS ON GRAIN PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS 2009

20 IMPORTS ONLY ALLOWED FROM USA AND CANADA INCREASE IN IMPORTS VS LAST YEAR MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS 2009

21 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS JULY TO DIC OF 2008 VS JULY TO DIC OF 2007 IN MT LAST HALF 2008LAST HALF 2007MT DIF% CHANGE WHITE BEANS CANADA222211115.21% USA1,26591535038.25% BLACK BEANS CANADA446466-20-4.29% USA22,60116,5086,09336.90% OTHER BEANS CANADA3,5428232,719330% USA36,54822,63713,91161.45% TOTAL64,62441,56023,06455.50%

22 IMPORTS DURING 2009 WILL DEPEND ON TWO MAIN POINTS 1. EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR 2. PRICES OF USA AND CANADA BEANS FOR CURRENT CROP MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS 2009

23 SECRETARIA DE ECONOMÍA MÉXICO SAGARPA MÉXICO PORTAL AGRÍCOLA MEXICANO ADUAMEX MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 “REFERENCES”


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