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The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes.

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Presentation on theme: "The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes."— Presentation transcript:

1 The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%

2 The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Aim to quantify and map changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses Population change Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change Area characteristics change Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Health change Relationship to population & deprivation change

3 The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Introduction UK geography & area typologies Technical challenges Results Demographic change Deprivation change Health change

4 UK geography Nation Region Local government district Ward Output Area Census & administrative hierarchy & equivalents Northern Ireland Wales Scotland England

5 Area typologies ONS classification: districts Geodemographic Urban / rural: wards 5 level categorisation of population density Deprivation: wards Categorised into quintiles

6 Technical challenges 1991 and 2001 small area populations not comparable: Boundary changes Differences in 1991 & 2001 Census population definition (location of student enumeration) To estimate a 1991 base population, need to: Adjust populations to mid-year & to a consistent geography Allow for changed view of level of 1991 Census undercount To calculate area deprivation, need to: Create consistent variables by geography & definition Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable

7 1991-2001 population change Population change Natural change Net migration

8 1991-2001 change Urban / Rural areas

9 1991-2001 change Deprivation of areas

10 Webb index

11 Deprivation change Townsend Index

12 Deprivation change & mortality SMRs 2001

13 Population change & mortality SMRs 2001

14 Population change 1991-2001 London Growth through natural change concentrated in most urban & deprived areas Prospering UK Generally, natural change gain; not in rural & deprived areas Net migration gain in all but more urban/more deprived areas Large net migration gain in least deprived areas Coastal & Countryside Small net migration gains in less urban/less deprived areas Mining & Manufacturing Small natural change gains in all areas but offset by net migration loss, particularly from more urban/deprived areas

15 Population change 1991-2001: summary Populations in most urban & more deprived areas maintained by natural change gain Population moving away from more urban & more deprived areas to less deprived, semi-urban locations Mortality change 1991-2001 Mortality relates more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade Generally, areas becoming less deprived have better health than those remaining the same or becoming more deprived Generally, areas growing & areas of net migration gain have better mortality than areas contracting or experiencing net migration loss


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