1. Global Applications Program Presented By: Haley McIntyre Alaska Center for Energy & Power October 9, 2013 Arctic Energy Summit 2013 International Market Analysis

2. Presentation Objectives 1.Present a tool for broad market analysis 2.Demonstrate the global relevance of Arctic experience 3.Open up a dialogue about building on common experiences

3. Energy in Rural Alaska Remote Long Supply Lines Lack of Infrastructure Challenging geographic conditions Islanded grids reliant on diesel generation Nome 2011

4. Project Motivation Project Motivation Growth of hybrid micro-grid systems in Alaska Integration challenges Share best practices Unique in the U.S.

5. International Potential Circumstances exist elsewhere Identify those facing similar energy issues Build on common experience Relevant products and services San Lorenzo, Ecuador Ramea, Canada

6. Market Analysis Multi-dimensional evaluation tool Methodology Define “Ideal Market” Identify the criteria that serve as indicators Apply scoring system Select countries Series of filters to reveal countries for further investigation “GAP Matrix”

7. Defining Criteria Envisioned “Ideal Market” 4 requirements 1.Correlation with “Ideal Market” 2.Differences between countries 3.Easily quantifiable 4.Single credible source Qualitative Example: Business Environment (supportive, not supportive): Classifies the country’s overall business climate, using data that indicates the complexity and cost of their regulatory environment as well as the strength of their legal institutions. For this qualitative assessment, the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings were used.

8. Scoring System CriteriaMeaningValue Emerging EconomyVery high importance5 Population DensityHigh importance4 Gross Domestic ProductMedium importance3 CriteriaOutcomeScore Emerging EconomyYes5 No0 Population Density0 < 2004 201 < 20002 Gross Domestic Product$10,000 – $30,0003 0 – $10,0002 $30,000 and above1 Scores Values

9. Country Selection 100 countries and territories Literature review Regional selections Reviewer input

10. GAP Matrix

11. Results Five highest scoring counties

12. Results Map http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/henryjarend.GAP.html

13. Strengths & Weaknesses Strengths 1.Surprises 2.Filtering out of unrelated nations 3.Broad range of possibilities Weaknesses 1.Regional challenges 2.Cohesion of data 3.Unavailable data

14. Senegal solar-wind-diesel Sine Moussa Abdou Synergies with Ideal Market Rapid electrification Comparable village sizes National and international programs Reliance on imported oil Rapid expansion hybrid micro-grids

15. Vanuatu Bulk fuel delivery and storage throughout the country Data collection regarding energy use and the performance of the energy sector A national renewable energy atlas and wind resource assessments Identification of a number of national energy priorities that provide unexpected opportunities for collaboration AVEC: Fuel tank farm in Gambell, AK

16. Thank You