1. Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications. 31 December 2005

2. 2 CTB RoleCTB Role Programmatic and Science PrioritiesProgrammatic and Science Priorities 1 st CTB Annual Meeting1 st CTB Annual Meeting –SAB Recommendations / CTB Actions THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

3. 3 CTB ROLE What does the CTB bring that’s new? – –A Focus on Transition Develop guidelines for smooth transitions – –A Means of Engagement Research, Operations and Applications communities – –A Mechanism for Distribution of Climate Information

4. 4 A FOCUS ON TRANSITION In order to accelerate improvements in NOAA climate forecasts and applications, the CTB must define a process to: – –Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities. – –Identify and delineate different types of transition: R2O: define where O picks up responsibility, and when a "hand-off" from R occurs. O2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and when a “hand-off” from O occurs. R2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and when a “hand-off” from R occurs. – –Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.

5. 5 NCEPNCEP R2O 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecasts, founded on CTB-based innovation, on- going Re-analysis, CFS, multi-model ensembles and user-feedback. 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse USER community Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra- structure for the transition process User Community R&D Community OPERATIONS 1 3 EMC CFS 5 4 O2A CTBCPCCTBCPC

6. 6 RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES – –The path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps: – –Model development and refinement – –Preliminary assessment – –Calibration (e.g. hindcasts) – –Interface with operations – –Final skill assessment – –Parallel tests – –Approval The roles of the host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.

7. 7 CPC OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES – –The path to implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps: – –Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts) – –Assigning weights to each tool; – –Systematic error correction – –Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global) – –Available in real-time The roles of the operational center and applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A – –Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server – –Regional applications (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx)

8. 8 A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT Collaboration with the climate community is key: – –Meeting customer demands for climate information. Participate in national & regional meetings that bring producers and users together. Recognize limitations. Work with intermediaries (e.g. RISA’s, RCC’s, NWS/CSD). Ask users what they need? Develop regionally specific forecasts and applications. Determine economic value of climate forecasts and products. – –Enhance resources consistent with CTB Programmatic and Science Priorities Collaborative transition projects (AO’s). Links to cooperative institutes (e.g. CICS, JCSDA), international programs (e.g. CLIVAR, GEWEX), and other agencies (e.g. NASA, USDA, DOE). – –Invite broad participation on CTB boards and teams.

9. 9 Some Common Customer Demands: 1.Improve the skill of sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks. 2.Make them more usable and more easily understood. 3.Expand products beyond averages to extremes. 4.Give more temporal and spatial detail. 5.Provide access to models and data. MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS CTB Action: Develop enhanced partnerships with intermediaries that bridge research/operations and regional applications: 1.How should we package our products? 2.What kind of verification information should we provide? 3.What new products should we provide? 4.How often do customers want products updated?

10. 10 PROGRAMMATIC MOTIVATION FOR CTB – –In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. – –The CTB will traction and visibilityprovide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; operational testing environmentprovide an operational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; infrastructure and resourcesprovide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

11. 11 PROGRAMMATIC PRIORITIES AND SCIENCE PRIORITIES The CTB management has been working with NCEP management to establish a prioritized short list of high level institutional priorities for accelerated transition of science into operations (Programmatic Priorities). The CTB Management is working with its CST and Transition Project Team leaders) to identify and articulate specific scientific priority areas (Science Priorities) needed to accomplish the Programmatic Priorities. These form the basis of a Science and Implementation Plan (distinct from the CTB Management Operating Plan). The SIP will be vetted with the SAB and the broader scientific community over the next several months.

12. 12 PROGRAMMATIC AND SCIENCE PRIORITIES NOAA Climate Forecast System Improvements (CFS n+1, n+2,…) – –Land & ocean analyses & models; resolution; physics; diagnostics Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System – –Consolidation & verification of statistical & 1-tier dynamical models – –CFS, GFDL, NASA-GEOS, NCAR-CCSM, other, ensembles and (25-yr) hindcasts Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System – –Preparation for new reanalysis (data mining; analysis system for climate) – –Verification, diagnostics, global monitoring & “nowcasting” – –Development of operational statistical models Regional Applications – –Drought/NIDIS, energy, agriculture, water resources, fire weather – –Extreme events – –Attribution – climate change

13. 13 PRGRAMMATIC MOTIVATION FOR A FOCUS ON CFS – –NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. – –The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. –Faster –Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications. – accelerate –Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by the climate community is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements.

14. ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth

15. 15 NOAA CFS IMPROVEMENTS Science Priorities The possible components of CFS (n+1) are coming into focus: – –Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS – –Ocean: MOM4 – –Resolution: T126 – –Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble CTB Role: – –Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of potential future changes to CFS/GFS prior to implementation. – –Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community. – –Caveat: Reduce emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS

16. CTB FY06 RANKED EXPERIMENTS 55RCM experiment4.2c 35Test of the GFS model biases over the3b 1052-Tier GFS experiments3a 15Sensitivity to the subgrid-scale orographic2b 14Identify areas sensitive to soil moisture6b 14Soil moisture impact6a 14Test of the new land scheme2a 23Simulation with the GFDL coupled model5a 43CFS/Noah experiment4.2b 13Sensitivity to PBL formation1b 22Alternative wind forcing in GODAS4.1c 12GLDAS/Noah experiment4.2a 42Sensitivity to convection1a 61Hindcasts with the GFDL coupled model5b 11Balanced data assimilation in GODAS4.1b 1 1 Deep data assimilation in GODAS 4.1a CUnits GroupTPT Experiment

17. 17 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy. CTB Role: – –Coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in ISI climate prediction and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC. “National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models: NCEP/CFS GFDL/CM2 NASA/GEOS 5 NSF/CCSM – –Coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC). – –The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.

18. 18 STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES (1) COLA – CTB Collaboration on CFS and NCAR / CCSM Background: COLA installed CFS (n) on the NCAR computer Proposal: NCEP - COLA intercomparison of CFS and NCAR/CCSM simulations to accelerate CFS (n+1) and MM ensemble prediction system. - 80-90 years of NCAR computer time for CFS @ T126 (Climate Simulation Lab) (2) NASA-CTB Collaboration on CFS (n+1) and GEOS Background: AO for Columbia Supercomputer resources Proposal: NCEP - NASA intercomparison of CFS and NASA/GEOS simulations to accelerate CFS (n+1). Focus on extreme events.

19. 19 ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM GEOSS will deliver unprecedented oceanic, atmospheric and land surface obs. – –Data assimilation systems have been developed for Wx modeling and analysis. – –Question: How should the enhanced observations from GEOSS be analyzed? Answer: Develop an analysis system for “climate”. CTB Role – –Promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally. – –Benefits: leverage CTB infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB, computer) – –Management: Project Manager for Interagency Coordination; Program Manager

20. 20 REGIONAL APPLICATIONS (EXAMPLE: HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS) Proposal: Meld key initiatives of the GAPP Core Project into the CTB and designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as a CPT for Land on the CTB Science Priorities: Examine Noah LSM and GLDAS impacts on coupled CFS seasonal forecasts (which also addresses issues of land memory impacts in CFS in general); Provide objective input for operational Drought Monitor and Outlooks; Develop a Drought Early Warning System in support of NIDIS; Provide Regional Climate Model (RCM) seasonal forecasts Provide Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts; Benefits: Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

21. 21 CTB FRAMEWORK InfrastructureInfrastructure – –Computing Support (1/3 rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) – –System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators – –Management and Administrative Staff Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant Transition ProjectsTransition Projects –Base (internally) Funded Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices –Announcements of Opportunity Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues NOAA or external lead PIs Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

22. 22 CURRENT CTB RESOURCES NCEP ContributionsNCEP Contributions – –Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) – –23 Redirected FTEs Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC) System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC) NOAA Climate Program OfficeNOAA Climate Program Office – –Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects. – –CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

23. 23 SAB Recommendations (Written Report from 1 st CTB Annual Meeting) (1) Science Priorities: Focus the science strategy as a function of resources ($$$, computing). Prepare separate Science & Implementation, and Management Operations plans. (2) Community Involvement Increase participation in large annual meetings & topical workshops. Use intermediaries (e.g. NWS CSD) to bridge research/operations & applications. Clarify CTB proposal solicitations (3) Model Output Access and Distribution Develop hardware/software tools and data policy for disseminating climate information. Work with established data distribution centers. (4) SAB Structure and Meetings Hold a dedicated annual review meeting. Expand SAB membership (international and private sector).

24. 24 The CTB “Message” The NOAA CTB will: Enhance cooperative partnerships between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions. Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications. Increase the range and scope of regional applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

25. CTB ORGANIZATION Director Higgins (CPC) Deputies Pan (EMC) & Gelman (CPC) Program Manager Ji (OGP) Test Bed Users Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science Advisory Board

26. 26 TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB Oversight Board (OB):Oversight Board (OB): –Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities. Climate Science Team (CST):Climate Science Team (CST): –Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access Science Advisory Board (SAB):Science Advisory Board (SAB): –Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX) Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctbComplete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb

27. 27 CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s) Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004) Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams: Model parameterization, Model sensitivity Assessments Climate data assimilation (ocean and land) Multi-model ensembles Climate products and applications Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams) Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB Q2 – Implemented CTB website Q2 – CTB ToR, “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

28. 28 CTB MILESTONES (FY06) CTB draft Science & Implementation, and Management Operating Plans Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system

29. 29 CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11) Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL) Transition NASA model to CTB Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA) Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS Work with RISA’s, RCC’s and CSD to develop plans for regional application products