1. ISSI International Team Meeting
Bern, Switzerland
April 20, 2006
Dynamical Response to the 11-Year Solar Cycle (and the QBO) in the Middle Atmosphere
Katja Matthes 1,2
1 Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Marie Curie Outgoing
International Fellowship

2. Courtesy of Kuni Kodera (2005)
Possible Ways for Solar Influence on Climate
Sun
Sun
Visible UV
Ozone
T, U
Strat.
Strat.
trop.
trop.
Dynamical impact
Radiative impact ?
Earth
Earth
Direct Influence
Indirect Influence
Courtesy of Kuni Kodera (2005)

3. Mechanism – Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle
Thermosphere
UV radiation
Mesosphere
Direct influence
on temperature
Influence on
ozone
Change of meridional
temperature gradient
Stratopause
QBO
SAO
Gray et al. (2001a,b)
Gray et al. (2003, 2004)
Labitzke (1987), Labitzke and van Loon (1988)
Circulation changes
(wind, waves, meridional
BD circulation)
Kodera and Kuroda (2002)
Stratosphere
Modeling
Matthes et al. (2004) ?
Change
of Hadley cell
of Walker circulation
Tropical response
Labitzke and van Loon (1988), Kodera (2004),
Gleisner and Thejll (2003), Haigh (2003), Haigh et al. (2005), van Loon et al. (2004, 2006), Matthes et al. (2006a)
NH polar response
Kodera (2002, 2003), Ogi et al. (2004), Kuroda and Kodera (2004, 2006) SH
Matthes et al. (2006a)
Tropopause
Überleitung zur nächsten Folie: hervorheben des Einflusses äquatorialer Winde auf NH Winterentwicklung.
Indirect influence,
difficult to measure
Troposphere
Ocean ?

4. Some Observational Facts

5. Positive Correlations Sun - Stratospheric Parameters
Reference checken
Labitzke
(1999)

6. Observed Solar Signal in Temperature Annual Mean
NCEP/CPC ( )
48 km
16 km
60N
60S
SSU/MSU4 ( )
+2.5 K
60N
60S
Hood (2004)
Scaife et al. (2002)
+0.8 K
-1 K
+1 K
+0.25 K
SSU/MSU4 ( )
+ 0.9 K
Courtesy of W. Randel (2005)
ERA40 ( )
60S
60N
48 km
16 km
+ 1.75K
+ 0.5K
Crooks & Gray (2005)
Umstrittenes beobachtetes Temperatursonnensignal! Schwierigkeit der Vergleichbarkeit mit Modell, da nur kleiner Teil komplett abgedeckt wird (Adams Bild!!)

7. Observed Solar Signal in Ozone Annual Mean
Lee and Smith (2003)
SBUV ( )
SAGE ( )
16km
50km
21km
60N
60S
Models vs. Observations - Tropics
Calisesi and Matthes (2006)
updated from Shindell et al. (1999)

8. Observed Modulation of Polar Night Jet and Brewer-Dobson Circulation
Anomalies
Early Winter
Confirmation of modulation
during NH winter and
tropospheric influence with
FUB-CMAM
(Matthes et al., 2004, 2006a)
1000 Eq
‒ f v*∼ ∇•F ?
Kodera and Kuroda (2002)

9. Development of Modeling Solar Influence on MA
2-D chemical transport
model studies
(Garcia et al., 1984; Brasseur, 1993; Huang
and Brasseur, 1993; Haigh, 1994; Fleming
et al., 1995)
GCM studies without realistic radiation and ozone changes
(e.g., Wetherald and Manabe, 1975; Balachandran and Rind, 1995; Balachandran et al., 1999; Kodera et al., 1991)
GCM studies with realistic radiation and ozone changes
without QBO
(Haigh, 1999; Larkin et al., 2000, Shindell et al., 1999, 2001; Rind et al., 2002; Matthes et al., 2003)
GCM studies with realistic radiation and ozone changes
and with QBO
(Matthes et al., 2004, 2006a; Palmer and Gray, 2005)
Studies with Chemistry Climate Models
Intercomparison within SOLARIS
(Solar Influence for SPARC)
(Tourpalie et al., 2003, 2005; Rozanov et al., 2004; Egorova et al., 2005; Langematz et al., 2005; Schmidt and Brasseur, 2006; Marsh et al., 2006; Matthes et al., 2006b)

10. Perpetual Solar Maximum
Experimental Design
Perpetual Solar Maximum
Perpetual Solar Minimum
15 years
Ozone changes (%) Annual Mean
Irradiance changes max-min (%)
+3 %
+2.5 %
Data from
Haigh (1994)
5-8 %
Hervorheben, dass Modelle keine interne QBO haben
Dazu wird Schwerewellenparametrisierung, ausreichende räumliche Auflösung, sowie eine realistische Simulation tropischer Konvektion benötigt (z. B. Giorgetta et al., 2002; Scaife et al., 2000a)
Data from
Shindell et al.
(1999)
Data from Lean et al. (1997)

11. GRIPS (GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC) Solar Intercomparison
Annual Mean
T (max-min) (K)
Low latitudes: good agreement in stratospheric temperature signal
High latitudes: dynamical signal very different
Main result: improvement of model climatology = pre-requisite for realistic solar signal
Matthes et al. (2003), Kodera et al. (2003)

12. Model Description FUB-CMAM
Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM) (Langematz and Pawson, 1997; Pawson et al., 1998, Langematz et al., 2003, Matthes et al., 2004)
T21L34 (5,6 x 5,6 ), top: 80km (mesosphere)
Ozone climatology
Based on ECHAM model family
No self-consistent QBO
=> Relaxation of the zonal mean wind in the model toward rocketsonde data from Gray et al. (2001)
FUB-CMAM: Hochaufgeloestes Strahlungsschema (43 Baender))

13. FUB-CMAM vs. Observations (Max-Min) – NH Winter
NCEP/CPC ( )
ERA40 ( )
Matthes et al. (2004)
FUB-CMAM 80 km
stratospheric
response
tropospheric
Nov
„poleward-downward“ movement
modulation of the PNJ at high lats
Dec
comparable with observations (e.g., Kodera, 1995)
Jan
Feb
0.1
0.4
hPa
850
1000
update of Kodera (1995)
Gray et al. (2004)

14. Modulation of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation Correlations: - Vertical Component of EPF (60N/10 hPa) in December and January Temperature
Absolut (Min)
less wave forcing at high lats
lower temperatures at high lats & higher temperatures at low lats => weaker BDC
Warming in tropical lower stratosphere dynamically induced! Überleitung zur nächsten Folie
Matthes et al. (2006a)

15. Impact on Tropospheric Circulation Pattern
Ev. Nur diese Abb. Zeigen, um Zeit zu sparen! Koennte aber auch kritisch sein, da in WACCM nicht so ganz klar ist, woher Erwaermung der unteren Stratosphaere kommt…. VORSICHT!
Kodera, in preparation (2006)
 Jo Haigh will talk about stratosphere-troposphere coupling

16. Observations: QBO-Solar Signal
QBO East
warm, disturbed
polar vortex
QBO West
cold, undisturbed
Solar Minimum
Solar Maximum
warm, disturbed
polar vortex
cold, undisturbed
Labitzke (1987), Labitzke
and van Loon (1988)
Holton and Tan (1980, 1982)
Importance of upper stratospheric winds on NH winter evolution:
Gray et al. (2001a,b), Gray et al. (2003), observations and
mechanistic model study, Gray et al. (2004), Palmer and Gray (2005),
Pascoe et al. (2006) GCM study
Observed 11-year solar cycle in QBO itself: Salby and Callaghan (2000, 2006),
Soukharev and Hood (2001), QBOw longer during solar max
QBO modulation confirmed with 2D model (McCormack, 2003) and GCM
(Palmer and Gray, 2005)
Salby und Callaghan eventuell erst spaeter am Ende erwaehnen, da hier sonst verwirrend, da das mit den jetzigen Modellstudien, die ich vorstelle nicht gezeigt werden kann…. Hmm, Palmer and Gray (2005) ev. Doch!!!!

17. QBO-Sun Interaction in the FUB-CMAM 10hPa north pole temperature +/-2σ
Solar Minimum
QBO west warmer
Solar Maximum °C E W
Sowohl LvL welche sich nur auf Winde in der unteren Stratosphaere beziehen als auch Gray, da Wind im Modell ueber die gesamte Stratosphaere erst dieses Ergebnis brachte!!!
QBO east warmer
confirms observations from Labitzke und van Loon as well as
Gray et al.!
also confirmed with Unified Model with self-consistent QBO
(Palmer and Gray, 2005)
Matthes et al. (2004)

18. Model Description UKMO Stratosphere-Mesosphere Model (SMM)
UKMO Mechanistic primitive-equation model of the middle atmosphere (SMM); Midrad radiation scheme, Rayleigh friction
hPa (16-80 km)
5° x 5° x 2 km
constant amplitude wavenumber 1 forcing at lower boundary
initial conditions = August
perpetual January conditions
experiments = 300 day long
20-ensembles in each experiment
Courtesy of Lesley Gray (2005)

19. Polar Temperature at 24 km
Experiment A: Varying the Bottom Boundary
Experiment B: Varying the Equatorial Winds
100 m
150 m
+40 ms-1
+20 ms-1
Polar Temperature
Time
200 m
250 m
0 ms-1
-20 ms-1
Identical
300 m
350 m
-40 ms-1
Changing the tropospheric
forcing or the equatorial winds alters the timing of the warmings
Courtesy of Lesley Gray (2005)

20. Stratosphere Mesosphere Model expt Time-series of polar temperature
20-member ensemble
Easterly anomaly imposed in subtropics at 40-50km to mimic a solar minimum anomaly
Timing of sudden warmings is very variable in control run
Courtesy of Lesley Gray (2005)

21. Variance of NP temperature at 24 km in UKMO GCM exp.
SAO + deep QBO
control
SAO-only
Pascoe, Gray and Scaife, 2006 (GRL)
Courtesy of Lesley Gray (2005)

22. Model Description NCAR-WACCM
NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (NCAR-WACCM) (Collins et al., 2004; Sassi et al., 2005)
4 x 5 L66, top: 140km (thermosphere)
Interactive chemistry
Based on NCAR Community Climate Model family
No self-consistent QBO
Relaxation of the zonal mean wind in the model toward rocketsonde data from Gray et al. (2001)
Very similar experiments as with the FUB-CMAM, perpetual solar and QBO simulations
FUB-CMAM: Hochaufgeloestes Strahlungsschema (43 Baender))

23. WACCM Annual Mean Results - Differences Ozone and Temperature (Max-Min): QBO East experiments
Temperature (K)
 Maxima in temperature and ozone comparable to observations
+0.75K
+3%
+2.5%
 relative minimum in the middle stratosphere
+0.2K
+1%
 secondary maximum in the lower stratosphere
+0.5K
+3%
99%
95% significant
Matthes et al. (2006b), to be submitted

24. Comparison NH Winter Response WACCM versus FUB-CMAM
Difference
WACCM: ozone calculated interactively
FUB-CMAM: ozone prescribed

25. Zonal Mean Wind Differences - Models vs. Observations
NCEP-CPC ( )
WACCM 4x5
Matthes et al. (2006b)
WACCM 1.9x2.5
FUB-CMAM
Nov
Dec
Jan
Matthes et al. (2004)

26. WACCM NH Winter Signal - Lower Stratosphere and Troposphere
Dec T max-min (K)
Jan omega min (hPa/s)
Jan omega max-min (hPa/s) Eq
30N
60N
30S
60S
+1K
Jan T max-min (K)
60S
30S Eq
30N
60N
confirms recent observational study about influence on
Hadley and Walker circulation from van Loon et al. (2006)!

27. WACCM NH Summer Signal - Lower Stratosphere and Troposphere
May T max-min (K)
Jun omega min (hPa/s)
Jun omega max-min (hPa/s) Eq
30N
60N
30S
60S
Jun T max-min (K)
+0.5K
60S
30S Eq
30N
60N
first model results that confirm observational study about influence on
Hadley and Walker circulation from e.g., van Loon et al. (2004), Kodera(2004)

28. WACCM - Impact of Different Horizontal Resolution
10hPa
10hPa
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
more SSWs!
4˚x 5˚
SMIN
1.9˚x 2.5˚
SMIN
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May

29. Summary
Direct 11-year solar signal in the upper stratosphere leads to modulation of PNJ and BDC that induce indirect circulation changes in the lower stratosphere (Matthes et al., 2004) and down to the troposphere at polar and equatorial latitudes (Matthes et al., 2006a)
Solar cycle and QBO both have anomalies in the subtropical upper stratosphere that can reinforce each other and determine the timing of stratospheric sudden warmings - a frequency modulation (Gray et al., 2003, 2004; Matthes et al., 2004; Salby and Callaghan, 2006)
Results obtained with the FUB-CMAM are confirmed with more complex interactive WACCM model (Matthes et al., 2006b)
WACCM shows for the first time lower stratospheric temperature signal in Dec/Jan and during summer (modulation of the BDC)!
Prescribed QBO in FUB-CMAM and WACCM is necessary for a more realistic solar signal
vertical structure of temperature and ozone signal captured for the first time in CCM (WACCM)
finer horizontal resolution represents interannual variability better and is needed for better wave-mean flow interactions

30. Outlook 110-years time varying solar cycle with and without
time varying QBO
intercomparison of recent solar experiments with
CCMs within SOLARIS (SPARC initiative)
intercomparison of prescribed versus self-
consistent QBO
Test locking of QBO with annual cycle in mechanistic model

31. Thank you to Karin Labitzke Ulrich Cubasch
Ulrike Langematz (FU Berlin)
Kunihiko Kodera
Yuhji Kuroda (MRI, Japan)
Lesley Gray (Reading University, UK)
WACCM group (Byron Boville, Rolando Garcia,
Fabrizio Sassi, Dan Marsh, Doug Kinnison, Stacy Walters)
(NCAR, USA)
Anne Smith (NCAR, USA)