1. Large-scale transient variations of tropical deep convection forced with zonally symmetric SSTs Zhiming Kuang Dept. Earth and Planetary Sciences and School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University

2. Zonally symmetric SST cases can be interesting SPCAM experiment modeled after earlier experiments by Marat Khairoutdinov Log(Power)

4. Zonally symmetric double-ITCZ A simple model of convectively coupled waves Kuang, 2008; Andersen and Kuang, 2008

5. A moisture-stratiform instability

6. Question Is the intraseasonal signal a moisture mode that differs fundamentally from convectively coupled waves? Moisture mode: Growth comes from negative effective gross moist stability. The disturbance will propagate through column MSE sources and sinks (e.g. Yu and Neelin, 1994; Sobel et al. 2001; Fuchs and Raymond, 2002, 2005, 2007; Sugiyama, 2009ab)

7. Decay time of T, q anomalies of an isolated moist convecting atmosphere column Kuang, JAS, In press

8. Column MSE excess is expressed in terms of a shift in the reference profile of the Betts-Miller scheme The most slowly decaying eigenmode Decay time is ~15days, the time for surface flux to remove the column MSE anomaly (radiation is fixed in this case)

9. This slowly decaying mode could provide the memory that reddens the spectrum in frequency. The decay time will be modified by diabatic sources, export of column MSE, which could lead to growth. The disturbance will propagate through column MSE sources and sinks (e.g. Yu and Neelin, 1994; Sobel et al. 2001; Fuchs and Raymond, 2002, 2005, 2007; Sugiyama, 2009ab) The above moisture modes are either stationary or propagate by horizontal moisture advection

10. Is horizontal moisture advection key to the propagation of the intraseasonal signal seen in the simulation? Use zonally rotated u,v fields to compute horizontal moisture advection u1,v1,q1u2,v2,q2u3,v3,q3u4,v4,q4 longitude normal u 1+i,v 1+i,q1 Rotate wind for q advection u 4+i,v 4+i,q4u 3+i,v 3+i,q3u 2+i,v 2+i,q2 i is chosen randomly each day

11. This disrupts the coherence between u,v and q thus removes phase dependent horizontal moisture advection on time scales longer than a day But preserves the mean horizontal q advection and allows some coherent sub- daily horizontal q advection

12. Check climatology is not greatly changed

14. Phase dependent horizontal moisture advection is removed Normalized spectra Control 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2

15. Horizontal moisture advection is key to the propagation of the intraseasonal signal but not that of convectively coupled waves

16. Zonally homogenize surface heat fluxes Control latitude Control Homogenized sfc hflx

17. Zonally homogenize radiative heating Control

18. Column MSE budgets Work by Joe Andersen

19. Why does radiative feedback weaken convectively coupled Kelvin waves? Radiative heating anomaly Temperature anomaly Work by Joe Andersen

20. An illustration with column CRM experiments Anomalous radiative heating applied more in the lower troposphere No anomalous radiative heating

21. Vertical distribution of the anomalous radiative heating can affect the gross moist stability

22. Conclusions The intraseasonal signals appear to be moisture modes as they depend on diabatic sources and their propagation depends on horizontal moisture advection Effects of radiative feedback on both convectively coupled waves and the intraseasonal variabilities can depend on the vertical structure of the anomalous radiative heating

23. Width of the ITCZ

24. Medium Wider Narrower

25. 80km global raveWRF rainfall climatology Kuang, Walker, Andersen, Boos, Nie, in preparation Observations

27. Rainfall Spectra ( γ=1 )

28. Rainfall Spectra ( γ=20 )

29. Normalized rainfall Spectra ( γ=20 )

30. OLR Spectra ( γ=20 )

31. Normalized OLR Spectra ( γ=20 )

32. Realistic WRF run without sub-seasonal surface flux variations Kuang, Walker, Andersen, Boos, Nie, in preparation

33. Realistic WRF run without sub-seasonal surface flux variations: OLR spectra Kuang, Walker, Andersen, Boos, Nie, in preparation

34. Aquaplanet warm pool

35. Aquaplanet warm pool rainfall spectra

36. Normalized

38. A zonally symmetric case