1. Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species Nathan Piekielek Whitebark pine project planning session

2. Objective Create future spatially-explicit species distribution models for GYE: – Douglas fir – Lodgepole pine – Others? Incorporate competition into future models Compare to simulation modeling results

3. Douglas Fir Results 778 Presence Models: BRT, MARS, RF Predictors: tmin4, pptannave, permave AUC: 0.83 – 0.87 Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3% Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%

4. Lodgepole Pine Results 1071 Presence Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfract permave, phave AUC: 0.75 – 0.89 Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6% Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%

5. Probability of Presence 0.82 0.16 PRESENT RCP 8.5 2070 - 2100 Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5) Prob. Presence > 50%Current204020702100 Area41,191 km 2 5,237 km 2 (87% reduction) Mean elevation2,073 m (6,801 ft) 2,337 m (7,667 ft) Elevation Range965 – 3,301 m (3,166 – 10,830 ft) 1,317-3,922 m (4,320 – 12,867 ft)

6. Examining present day competition N=454 FIA sites 23 sites WBP only

7. Examining present day competition with Douglas fir N=60 FIA sites

8. Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pine N=189 FIA sites

9. Examining present day competition with Engelmann spruce N=289 FIA sites

10. Examining present day competition with Subalpine fir N=331 FIA sites

11. One way future competition options Binary: – WBP in presence of some other species always loses (i.e. model future WBP absence) Continuous: – Use probability of presence of competitors to “adjust down” probability of presence of WBP Other?