1. by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA October 18th, 2006 Mexico City October 18th, 2006 Mexico City HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO Hydrologist Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A. Hydrologist Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A. * *

2. Agriculture is a very risky economic activity

3. Climate Anomalies High inter-annual climate variability Induce high uncertainty in food production El Niño Southern Oscillation

4. Crop losses in rain-fed agriculture of Mexico 4 5 23 50 0 0 20 40 60 Wind Pests Floods Droughts % Losses

5. The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly modify the climate of Central America and Mexico La Niña El Niño

6. Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax. 1995 734 mm Neutral 1997 661 El Niño 1998 675 La Niña 1995 734 mm Neutral 1997 661 El Niño 1998 675 La Niña CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS

7. TREND OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN MEXICO AND ENSO EVENTS El NiñoLa Niña

8. Number of Tropical Storms REGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITY

9. ENSO & HURRICANES El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific ENSO & HURRICANES El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific Formed October 15, 2005October 152005 Dissipated October 25, 2005October 252005 Highest winds 185 mph (295 km/h) Lowest pressure 882 mbar (hPa) Lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane Damages $16-20 billion USD Fatalities 22 direct, 40 indirect WILMA HURRICANE

10. 1995Neutro 1996 Neutro 1997 Strong El Niño 1998 La Niña 1999 La Niña ENSO, HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS

11. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1996 % Dev. Avg Precip. NEUTRAL YEAR

12. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1997 % Dev. Avg Precip. STRONG EL NIÑO YEAR

13. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1998 % Dev. Avg Precip. LA NIÑA YEAR

14. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1999 % Dev. Avg Precip. LA NIÑA YEAR

15. SST, 6°-18°N, 20°- 60°W PDI North Atlantic SST = Sea Surface Temperature Total Annual Dissipated Energy by Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Emanuel (2005)

16. NORTH HEMISPHERE North Atlantic Northeast Pacífic (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) Klotzbach (2006)

17. I II III IV V VIII VII VI EVENT CLASIFICATION Landfall region Category of the event Month of occurrence Length of records: 1960-2005 Only landfall accounted Total event: 460 Events cat. 3,4,5: 191 HURRICANE ANALYSIS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA Sources of Info: NOAA, SMN, UNISYS

18. Japanese Meteorological Agency, SSTA YEARS CLASSIFICACTION BASED ON THE ENSO INDEX LA NIÑANEUTRALEL NIÑO 1963-19641960-19611962-1963 1966-19671961-19621964-1965 1969-19701965-19661968-1969 1970-19711967-1968 1971-1972 1972-19731976-19771975-1976 1973-19741977-1978 1981-1982 1974-19751978-19791985-1986 1987-19881979-19801986-1987 1997-19981980-19811990-1991 1998-19991982-1983 1996-1997 1983-19842001-2002 1984-19852004-2005 1988-1989 1989-1990 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994 1994-1995 1995-1996 1999-2000 2000-2001 2002-2003 2003-2004 2005- 1960 - 2005

19. AVERAGE ANNUAL HURRICANES BY REGION

20. ATLANTIC Hurricanes per year

21. PACIFIC Hurricanes per year

22. MODELING HURRICANE LANDFALL Assuming that … The occurrence of one hurricane can be treated as an independent event from the occurrence of another hurricane, thus … The occurrence of hurricanes can be modeled with a Poisson distribution: Pr (X = x) = e - μ μ x x! x = 0, 1, 2, … μ = avg annual hits Probability of at least one hurricane 1 - Pr (X=0) =

23. PACIFICATLANTIC IIIIIIIVVVIVIIVIII ALL0.4790.8650.8200.8170.5430.7570.5330.590 NEUTRAL0.5130.8850.8140.8280.5850.7430.6320.585 NIÑAS0.5030.8500.8170.8650.6670.8890.5930.798 NIÑOS0.3650.8760.8380.7200.2390.5590.0870.239 PACIFICATLANTIC IIIIIIIVVVIVIIVIII ALL0.1600.7290.4790.4440.3090.3530.1780.353 NEUTRAL0.1480.6740.5130.4930.3560.3810.2130.274 LA NIÑA0.0950.6320.4510.3300.3930.3300.2590.727 EL NIÑO0.2390.5970.4200.3650.0870.2390.0000.087 PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL ALL EVENTS CATEGORY 3, 4 y 5

24. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL, ALL CAT.

25. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL CAT. 3, 4, 5 By ENSO Phase PROBABILITY I II III IV V VI VII VIII REGION

26. 14.8% 67.4% 51.3% 49.3% 35.6% 27.4% 21.3% 38.1% PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL Category 3, 4 y 5 Neutral Years Like, year 2006 March, 2006

27. MONTHLY PROBABILITY HURRICANE LANFALL AND RETURN PERIOD NEUTRAL

28. PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL ATLANTIC Neutral El Niño La Niña PROBABILITY NUMBER OF HURRICANES

29. PACIFICO Neutral El Niño La Niña PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITY NUMBER OF HURRICANES

30. HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN YEAR 2006

31. HURRICANE LANDFALL IN YEAR 2006

32. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SEPTEMBER DE 2006 % Desv.

33. ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN YEAR 2006 % Desv.

34. ABANDON SOYBEANS FIELD DUE TO DROUGHT IN SOURTHERN TAMAULIPAS OCT, 2006

35. CONCLUSIONS A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from hurricane impacts Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that would be subjected to summer drought. Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur drought conditions. CONCLUSIONS A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from hurricane impacts Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that would be subjected to summer drought. Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur drought conditions.