Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of.

Published byMary Palmer Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of."— Presentation transcript:

1 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Outlook Forum Arlington, Virginia February 25, 2011

2 Cash Prices in Illinois Are Near Record Levels of 2007/08 16.18 12.69 6.53

3 U.S. Factors Shaping 2011 Tight supplies of corn and soybeans, relatively abundant wheat Tight supplies of corn and soybeans, relatively abundant wheat Little supply cushion for corn and soybeans in the event of adverse weather Little supply cushion for corn and soybeans in the event of adverse weather Strong corn, wheat, and soybean exports Strong corn, wheat, and soybean exports

4 Projected 10 Million More Acres: 75 Percent Going to Corn and Wheat 295 287277

5 New Crop Soy/Corn Price Relationship Favors Corn Soybean/Corn

6 Net Returns for Corn and Soybeans Historically High

7 U.S. Corn: A Record Crop, Tight Carry-In Stocks, Strong Use Bil. Bu Supply Use Bil. Bu

8 Gradual Recovery in Gasoline Consumption Supports Growth in Ethanol Source: Energy Information Administration

9 But Ethanol Usage Constrained By Market For E10

10 U.S. Maintains Corn Exports While DDG Exports Grow MMT

11 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks Would Be The Second Lowest Since 95/96 MMT

12 U.S. Wheat: Lower Production and Carry-In Stocks, Exports Still Strong Bil. Bu SupplyUse Bil. Bu

13 U.S. Soybeans: Bumper Crop and Tight Carry-In Stocks, Strong Exports and Crush Bil. Bu SupplyUse Bil. Bu

14 Global Factors Shaping 2011 Degree of Russian crop recovery Degree of Russian crop recovery Production responses: Canada, EU, South America, and Australia Production responses: Canada, EU, South America, and Australia Continued surging demand for feed ingredients, particularly in China Continued surging demand for feed ingredients, particularly in China

15 Wheat: Need More Production to Meet Rising Global Consumption ?

16 Wheat Stocks Held by Exporters Still Ample *Most stocks unavailable to World **Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine ***Argentina. Australia, Canada, EU, U.S.

17 Global Corn Production Expands to Meet Rising Demand

18 U.S. Corn Production Responds to Ethanol, Foreign Production Responds to Growing Feed Demand United StatesForeign MMT

19 Soybeans: Higher Global Production Balances Rising Consumption

20 United States, Argentina, and Brazil Dominate Growth In Global Soybean Production MMT

21 Soybean Production Growth: Area in South America, Yield in the U.S. MMT Period is over the last 10 years

22 China: All of the Growth In Soybean Import Demand

23 Soybean Stocks Available to The World: Record Low in 10/11 MMT

24 China: The Wild Card!

25 China: Feed Ingredient Imports Double MMT

26 China: Hog Operations Turn Profitable On Soaring Hog Prices Relative to Corn Hog/Corn Ratio Breakeven Ratio

27 China’s Corn Imports: Economics Or Policy Over 1 MMT of U.S. purchases $/MT U.S. Exports TMT

28 Thank you!

Download ppt "Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of."

Similar presentations

Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013 1.

Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21,
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.
2014-15 Market Perspective or.

Market Perspective or.
IFIF/FAO Business Meeting - Rome 2006 Agriculture and the Animal Feed Industry.

IFIF/FAO Business Meeting - Rome 2006 Agriculture and the Animal Feed Industry.
1 Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity Market Update By Jim Sullivan Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity.

1 Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity Market Update By Jim Sullivan Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity.
Corn Outlook.

Corn Outlook.
1 Food commodity prices: History & prospects Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ? USDA Outlook Forum February 20, 2014.

1 Food commodity prices: History & prospects Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ? USDA Outlook Forum February 20, 2014.
Commodity Market Outlook WBFI Annual Meeting T. Randall Fortenbery Professor School of Economic Sciences Washington State University.

Commodity Market Outlook WBFI Annual Meeting T. Randall Fortenbery Professor School of Economic Sciences Washington State University.
Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.

Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.
FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $141.5 billion Imports $3.0 billion to $119.0 billion Surplus.

FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $141.5 billion Imports $3.0 billion to $119.0 billion Surplus.
World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.

World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.
FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $1.0 billion to $140.5 billion Imports $2.0 billion to $117.0 billion Surplus.

FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $1.0 billion to $140.5 billion Imports $2.0 billion to $117.0 billion Surplus.
FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $1.0 billion to $143.5 billion Imports $1.0 billion to $116.0 billion Surplus.

FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $1.0 billion to $143.5 billion Imports $1.0 billion to $116.0 billion Surplus.
Grain & Biofuel Markets in 2015 Matthew C. Roberts

Grain & Biofuel Markets in 2015 Matthew C. Roberts
Outlook and Market Update for 2012 Corn Short Course and Georgia Corn Growers Annual Meeting January 17, 2012 Dr. Nathan B. Smith Extension Economist.

Outlook and Market Update for 2012 Corn Short Course and Georgia Corn Growers Annual Meeting January 17, 2012 Dr. Nathan B. Smith Extension Economist.
Wheat Market Outlook in

Wheat Market Outlook in
Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research.

Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research.
FY 2015 & 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Initial FY 2016 Forecasts Exports = $138.5 billion Imports = $122.5 billion Surplus = $16.0 billion Changes.

FY 2015 & 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Initial FY 2016 Forecasts Exports = $138.5 billion Imports = $122.5 billion Surplus = $16.0 billion Changes.
Corn and Soybean Prices and Outlook Ag Prices Conference August 27, 2008 Wisconsin Dells Rami Reddy UW-Platteville.

Corn and Soybean Prices and Outlook Ag Prices Conference August 27, 2008 Wisconsin Dells Rami Reddy UW-Platteville.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus.

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google