1. Research Methods It is actually way more exciting than it sounds!!!! Move op definitions to hypothesis

2. Why do we have to learn this stuff? Psychology is first and foremost a science. Thus it is based in research. Be aware however of two hurdles that tend to skew our logic when we research

3. Hindsight Bias The tendency to exaggerate that you knew it all along after learning the outcome, Consider findings to be common sense Monday Morning Quarterbacking!!! Example: After Solon loses to Twinsburg, you say “I knew they were going to lose”

4. Overconfidence Overconfidence – tendency to think we know more than we do. 82% of U.S. drivers consider themselves to be in the top 30% of their group in terms of safety. 81% of new business owners felt they had an excellent chance of their businesses succeeding. When asked about the success of their peers, the answer was only 39%. (Now that's overconfidence!!!)

5. Overconfidence “ There is no reason for anyone to have a computerin their home.” (Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977) “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”(Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, 1895) “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.”(United Artists executive when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964) “A severe depression like that of 1920–1921 is outside the range of probability.” (Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, November 16, 1929) “Man will never reach the Moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.” (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957)

6. The Scientific Attitude Three main components – Curious – Skeptical – Open-minded

7. Critical Thinking Critical Thinking - thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions – “Smart thinking” – Four elements Examines assumptions Detects hidden values Evaluates evidence Assesses conclusions – Empirical Approach

8. Thinking that she had outperformed most of her classmates, Glenda was surprised to receive just an average grade on her psychology test. Glenda's experience best illustrates 1.The hindsight bias 2.The placebo effect 3.Negative correlation 4.Illusory correlation 5.Overconfidence Table

9. According to Emily's grandfather, Adolf Hitler's obvious emotional instability made it clear from the beginning days of his international conflicts that Germany would inevitably lose World War II. The grandfather's claim best illustrates 1.the hindsight bias. 2.illusory correlation. 3.overconfidence. 4.an illusion of control 5.random sampling. Table

10. Scientific Method Theory – an explanation of behaviors or events that have been observed Often starts as an hypothesis Developed through repeated observation and testing Example: Sleep improves memory Hypothesis – a testable prediction Usually written in an If/Then statement Explains what you expect will happen Example: If sleep deprived, then people will remember less from the day before

11. Hypothesis Practice A researcher is evaluating the effectiveness of a new physical education program for elementary school children. The program is designed to reduce competition. There is some evidence to suggest that participation in class can have an effect on human memory. A researcher plans to use a standardized AP Psych exam to evaluate the effects of class participation.

12. Operational Definitions Operational Definition - A statement that tells a person clearly Meaning of hypothesis measure of a variable Must be clear and precise Must be measurable Allow experiment to be replicated Example: Higher Score - Participation The number of times a person raises Their hand in class to answer or ask a Q question about AP Psych content A 4 or 5 on the AP Exam

13. 3Types of Research Descriptive To describe behavior Correlational To predict behavior Experimental To explain behavior

14. 3 Types of Descriptive Research The Case Study The Survey Naturalistic Observation

15. Case Studies A detailed picture of one or a few subjects (with similar conditions). Provides oppty to study unusual cases in depth Offers suggestions for further study Results often can’t be generalized Can’t establish cause and effect Example: The ideal case study was John and Kate. Really interesting, but are they typical of all families

16. Case Study Methodology – Methodology Gather data from one person (or small group) through: – One on one interviews – Observations – Testing – Primary Resources » Health Records » School Records

17. Naturalistic Observation Gather data by watch subjects in a natural environment/public setting Do not manipulate the environment. May be done when it is not ethical to manipulate variables Does not show cause and effect. Example: Jane Goodall’s research on chimpanzees

18. Survey Gather Data – self reported beliefs from a large sample representing the population – Personal facts – Behaviors – Attitudes – Opinions

19. Survey Method Method: Questionnaire Interview Can be Descriptive or Correlational Advantages: Cheap and fast most used research method in psychology Example: 1.On ave. how many hours do you study per night? 2.What is your grade point ave?

20. Conducting a Survey Population - all the possible subjects in a group you want to study Example: men and women 18-80 Random Sampling – a portion of the population that fairly represents the population because each person has an equal chance of getting chosen Ensures that the participants are representative of the larger population Helps avoid false generalizations Survey must have random sample to be scientific Example: Use of a random computer generator to select 1000 people in the phone book for a survey to be sent to.

21. Survey Method: The Bad Low Response Rate Response Bias/social desirability bias - respondents answer questions in a way that will be viewed favorably by others (See example left) Wording Effects – subtle changes in the order or wording of questions can have a major effect How accurate would a survey be about the frequency of diarrhea?

22. Wording Effects Do you think it is important for America to provide aid to the needy? Should the government not allow televised cigarette ads? Do you think it is important for America to provide welfare? Should the government censor cigarette ads?

23. 1.A researcher wants to investigate people's attitudes toward violence on television. Explain which of the following research methods the researcher should use and why: case study, survey, or naturalistic observation. 2.A researcher wants to investigate sharing behaviors of young children. Explain which research method the researcher would use and why. Provide a brief explanation on how the research would be conducted. Think Pair Share

24. Correlational Method Correlation - expresses a relationship between two variables. – Measures how well one variable predicts the other – Used when ethics prohibit experimentation Can be efficient Can make predictions Can use pre-existing or archival data Make it difficult to assess the impact of a third variable Does not show causation As more ice cream is eaten, more people are murdered. Does ice cream cause murder, or murder cause people to eat ice cream?

25. Eating organic food causes autism.

26. A pirate shortage caused global warming.

27. Results of Correlational Studies Positive Correlation The variables go in the SAME direction. Negative Correlation The variables go in OPPOSITE directions. Example: Studying and grades hopefully has a positive correlation. Example: Heroin use and grades probably has a negative correlation.

28. Correlation Coefficient Correlation Coefficient - A statistical measure for Correlational Studies that measures the relationship between 2 variables. Range is from -1 to +1 – The relationship gets weaker the closer you get to zero. – (+) tells you the variables are going in the same direction – (-)tells you the variables are going in the opposite direction Which is a stronger correlation? -.13 or +.38 -.72 or +.59 -.91 or +.04

29. Which of the following would be a negative correlation, and which would be a positive correlation? Education and years in jail Weight and hours of TV watched Education and income Holding babies and crying Food and calories ingested Think Pair Share

30. Scatterplot – a visual representation of the relationship between the variables – shown as a graphed cluster of dots Which of the following would be a negative correlation, and which would be a positive correlation? Education and years in jail Weight and hours of TV watched Education and income Holding babies and crying Food and calories ingested

31. Correlation

34. The table below lists the scores of eight research participants on a test to measure anxiety, as well as the typical number of cigarettes each person smokes daily. Scores on the anxiety test can range anywhere from a low of 0 (indicating very low anxiety) to a high of 30 (indicating very high anxiety). Research Anxiety Cigarettes Participant Test Score____________ 1 8 11 2 9 3 3 15 11 4 14 16 5 21 26 6 12 10 7 22 24 8 17 18 Construct a scatterplot to represent the correlation between smoking and anxiety. Describe the direction of the correlation and give two possible explanations for it.

35. Correlation Illusory Correlations Illusory Correlation – Perceived non-existent correlation – A random coincidence

36. Speaking at a college graduation ceremony, Professor Robson compared college graduates with adults who are less educated. She correctly noted that college graduates pay more taxes, vote more frequently, engage in more volunteer activities in their communities, and are less likely to go to jail than less-educated adults. The professor concluded that colleges obviously do great things for society. How might you reasonably challenge the way the professor reached her conclusion? Think Pair Share

37. Psychologists who carefully watch the behavior of chimpanzee societies in the jungle are using a research method known as 1.The survey 2.Experimentation 3.Naturalistic observation 4.The case study 5.Random sampling

38. If psychologists discovered that wealthy people are less satisfied with their marriages than poor people are, this would indicate that wealth and marital satisfaction are 1.Causally related 2.Negatively correlated 3.Independent variables 4.Dependent variables 5.Positively correlated

39. The belief that weather conditions signal the onset of arthritis pain best illustrates 1.Random sampling 2.The hindsight bias 3.The placebo effect 4.An illusory correlation 5.overconfidence

40. Which of the following correlation coefficients expresses the strongest degree of relationship between two variables? 1.+0.10 2.-.67 3.0.00 4.-0.10 5.+0.59

41. Experimental Method Experiment - Manipulation of one or more variables Advantages: Shows cause and effect Can verify results Can eliminate bias Disadvantage: Time and $ Smoking causes health issues.

42. Theory Theory - An explanation that organizes observation and predicts behaviors or events A hunch Example: – Participating in class leads to better test scores

43. Hypothesis Hypothesis - A testable prediction. Example: Students who participate in AP Psych class will score higher on the AP exam

44. Operational Definitions Operational Definition - A statement that tells a person clearly Meaning of hypothesis measure of a variable Must be clear and precise Must be measurable Allow experiment to be replicated Example: Higher Score - Participation The number of times a person raises Their hand in class to answer or ask a Q question about AP Psych content A 4 or 5 on the AP Exam

45. Operational Definition Practice If Student’s are given skittles, then they will be excited.

46. Population and Sampling Population – all potential participants in the experiment – the group that you want to apply your findings to. Sample – a subset of the population that you will test – N = sample size – Usually not random, but can be

47. Independent Variable Independent Variable - Whatever is being manipulated in the experiment. What changes in the experiment Levels of IV – the two conditions you are comparing (ie. drug and placebo) If there is a drug in an experiment, the drug is almost always the independent variable. Example: Participation

48. Dependent Variable The dependent variable would be the effect of the drug. Dependent Variable - Whatever is being measured in the experiment. It is dependent on the independent variable. Example: Score on the AP Exam

49. Hypothesis and Operational Definitions Study: A scientist wants to study whether people who make more money are happier Identify: – Hypothesis – Operational Definitions IV DV Study: A scientist wants to study whether or not people who drink become more aggressive. Identify the following: – Hypothesis – Operational Definitions IV DV If people make more money then they will be happier Money is defined as > than $70,000/year Happier is defined as greater than 6 on a happiness scale If people drink alcohol, then they will become aggressive Alcohol is defined as 2 or more 4oz alcoholic drinks Aggression is any aggressive act on a checklist ie. Kicking, biting, punching, yelling

50. Assignment Random Assignment – Assigning participants in an experiment to experimental and control groups by chance – Minimizes differences between two groups – Reduces the impact of confounding variables – Different than Random Sample Experimental Group – the group that’s exposed to the treatment Control Group – the group not exposed to the treatment Examples: Experimental - The group that gets to participate Control group – The group that does not get to participate

51. Beware of Confounding Variables Examples: Confounding Variable - A factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect on the experiment Confounds often arise due to differences between the groups that exist before the independent variable is imposed! motivation, eagerness to please, lifestyle, age, intelligence, experimenter bias, placebo effect (

52. 2 important confounding variables Experimenter Bias - expectations by the experimenter that are subtly communicated to the participants – Example: - Experimenter knowing groups & wants his drug to do well Placebo effect – an experimental effect caused by expectations of participants or caused by a substance which the recipient assumes is the independent variable but is not – Example: A drug that has no effect is assumed to be the drug that has an effect

53. Double-blind Procedure Double Blind - Both the researcher and the participants are ignorant about who is receiving the treatment and who is receiving a placebo ( a dummy medication) Minimizes placebo effect and experimenter bias

54. Replication Replication - Repeating the research study to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances. What helps the researcher to insure the study can be replicated?

55. Drawing Conclusions Only in Experiment – variables have been manipulated Must have Random Assignment Results must be Statistically Significant – Statistical measure that indicates the results occurred due to the IV and NOT by CHANCE

56. What was the hypothesis Operationally Define the Variables Was random assignment done, if so, explain how What was the independent variable and dependent variable

57. Quasi-experimental Quasi-experimental No random assignment Used to study differences between: – men and women – Boys and girls – Young and old Confounding variables so no cause and effect

58. Controlled Observation Controlled Observation - Type of Observational Research – Conditions are contrived by researcher – Measuring something, but no IV – Does not show cause and effect Early Psych Research

59. APA Ethical Guidelines for Research IRB- Internal Review Board Both for humans and animals.

60. Animal Research Clear Purpose Acquired legally Least Suffering Treated Humanely

61. Human Research Confidentiality No Harm Informed consent Debrief

62. Researchers use experiments rather than other research methods in order to distinguish between 1.Facts and theories 2.Cause and effects 3.Case studies and surveys 4.Random samples and representative samples 5.Hypotheses and operational definitions Table

63. Abdul has volunteered to participate in an experiment evaluating the effectiveness of aspirin. Neither he nor the experimenters know whether the pills he takes during the experiment contain aspirin or are merely placebos. The investigators are apparently making use of 1.Naturalistic observation 2.Illusory correlation 3.The double-blind procedure 4.Random sampling 5.The overconfidence effect Table

64. In the hypothesis “Students who study a list of terms in the morning, just after waking up, will recall more terms than students who study the list just before falling asleep,” what is the dependent variable? 1.List of terms 2.Memorization 3.Time of day 4.Number of terms remembered 5.students Table

65. In a study conducted on depression, some patients were given an anti-depressant and others were given a placebo to test whether the drug reduced suicidal thoughts. What is the independent variable in this study? 1.Anti-depressant 2.Placebo 3.Number of suicidal thoughts 4.Depression 5.Patients Table

66. Statistics Recording the results from our studies. Must use a common language so we all know what we are talking about. 2 Types: – Descriptive – Inferential

67. Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics - numbers that summarize a set of data obtained from a sample – describes sets of data. Examples: Frequency Distribution (orderly arrangement of scores) –see ex. left Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Varience Frequency Polygon Frequency Histogram

68. Measures of Central Tendency Mode - occurs the most Mean - arithmetic average Median - middle score

69. Central Tendency Mean, Median and Mode. $25,000-Pam $25,000- Kevin $25,000- Angela $100,000- Andy $100,000- Dwight $200,000- Jim $300,000- Michael Let’s look at the salaries of the employees at Dunder Mifflen Paper in Scranton: The median salary looks good at $_______________________ The mean salary also looks good at about $________________ But the mode salary is only $___________________________ 100,000 110,000 25,000 Watch out for extreme scores or outliers. ________________ is a better measure than the mean when there are extremes/outliers Median

70. Normal Distribution In a normal distribution, the mean, median and mode are all the same. Examples: Height, Weight, IQ Scores

71. Distributions Outliers skew distributions. Positive Skew – most scores on the low end Mean is higher than median, so median better measure of central tendency Negative Skew – most scores on the high end Mean is lower than median, so median better measure of central tendency If most students scored well on a test, what would the distribution look like? If most students scored poorly? What does the data tell us?

72. Measures of variability Range: distance from highest to lowest scores. Standard Deviation: the variance of scores around the mean. The higher the variance or SD, the more spread out the distribution is. Do scientists want a big or small SD? Variance - The average of the squared differences from the mean – The less variable the data is, the more reliable it is! Shaq and Kobe may both score 30 ppg (same mean). But their SDs are very different…mea ning?

73. Calculating Standard Deviation Step 1 – calculate the mean – add all of the raw scores and divide by the # of scores Step 2 – calculate the deviation from the mean by subtracting each of the raw scores from the mean Step 3 – square the deviation from the mean for each score Step 4 – Sum the squared deviations Step 5 – divide the sum of the squared deviation by the number of scores and find the square root

74. Calculating the Standard Deviation

75. Calculating the Standard Deviation your turn Scores – 10, 3, 7, 8, 7 Step 1 – calculate the mean – add the all of the raw scores and divide by the # of scores Step 2 – calculate the deviation from the mean by subtracting each of the raw scores from the mean Step 3 – square the deviation from the mean for each score Step 4 – Sum the squared deviations Step 5 – divide the sum of the squared deviation by the number of scores and find the square root 35/5 = 7 10-7 = +3, 3-7 = -4, 7-7 =0, 8-7= +1, 7-7=0 3x3=9, 4x4=16, 0x0=0, 1x1=1, 0x0=0 9+16+0+1+0 = 26 26/5 = 2.28

76. Variance Variance - The average of the squared differences from the Mean. = Standard Deviation 2 Tells you the same thing as Standard Deviation—how consistent/reliable the data is Example: Standard Deviation = 5 Variance = 25 *if you know the variance, how can you calculate the standard deviation?

77. Scores Z Scores - A unit that measures the distance of a score from the mean in units of standard deviations Observation – Mean Standard Deviation 10-15 = -1 5 Equals 0 at the mean A positive z score = number above the mean, negative z score = number below the mean. Example: If John scored a 72 on a test with a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 8, John’s z score would be

78. Z Scores Jack had an ACT score of 30 and Jill had an SAT score of 690. Which student had the better score? Jack's ACT score was 1.71 standard deviations above the mean ACT score. Jill's SAT score was 1.75 standard deviations above the mean SAT score. Comparing the standard scores, Jill's score of 1.75 is slightly better than Jack's score of 1.71.

79. Normal Distribution What is the probability an observation is less than the z score or more than the z score?

80. Normal Distribution Calculating the probability that scores are above or below the mean Step 1 – calculate the mean Step 2 - calculate/find the standard deviation or variance. If you only have the variance you must calculate the standard deviation Step 3 draw a normal distribution curve and find the scores for each standard deviation from the mean and place them on the graph Step 4: calculating the % of students who scored within a range of scores by finding the corresponding scores on the curve, then add the percentages from each standard deviation.

81. Inferential Statistics Inferential Statistics – using the properties of the sample data to deduce the properties of the population – The purpose is to discover whether the finding can be applied to the population Statistical Significance – determines whether the difference in the means of your control group and experimental group occurred because of some fluke/ chance rather than the dependent variable Measured by P-value=.05 – 5% likely the results are due to chance or – 95% confidence level the results are due to the independent variable – You can apply the findings to the population What does a p-value=.80 mean? that you are only 20% confident the difference in means is due to the independent variable

82. Statistical Significance Key Ideas The bigger the difference between groups the less likely it’s due to chance (regardless of sample size) Sample size matters. This is known as the "law of large numbers." – The larger the sample size, the smaller an observed difference has to be in order to be statistically significant. – The smaller the sample size, the larger an observed difference would have to be in order to be statistically significant. – Small sample, small difference not likely to be statistically significant

83. Descriptive vs. Inferential Statistics Descriptive – used to describe summarize a data set – Make use of averages Mean Median Mode – Address dispersion – how widely the individual data points are likely to be from the mean Standard Deviation Variance Inferential – Help researches draw conclusions from data – Statistical Significance P <.05 – Answers: Did the results occur by chance? Did the independent variable cause changes in the dependent variable? Should the Hypothesis be supported or rejected? Can I apply my findings to the general population?

84. Culture Culture – shared ideas, behaviors and attitudes and traditions that are passed from one generation to the next – Example: Feelings of loneliness differ across cultures, but in all cultures loneliness is demonstrated by shyness and low self-esteem

85. Milgram’s Study Hypothesis: – If individuals are in the presence of an authority figure, then they will obey the authority Population – All Males from New Haven/Yale Area Sample – 40 males, ages 20-50 from New Haven Area IV – Proximity of experimenter to teacher – Op Def: Experimenter will stand 10’ from teacher in the same room to or speak commands over the phone from a second room DV – Level of Shock – Op Def: record the maximum level of shock (up to 400 volts) Random Assignment: Not conducted so confounding variables

86. Milgram’s Experiment Criticized for deceiving “teachers” and subjecting them to stress Violating “No Harm” 65% of participants followed the orders to the maximum shock level

87. Milgram’s Experiment Obedience High – Experimenter in close proximity to “teacher” – Learner placed in a different room – Experiment associated with prestigious location (Yale) Obedience Lower – Experimenter out of the room giving orders over a phone – Other “teachers” observed other participants refuse orders – Experiment not associated with prestigious location

88. Think Pair Share Design an experiment to test whether alcohol consumption influences people's tendency to become socially aggressive. In your experimental design, identify the following experimental elements and procedures: hypothesis, random sampling, random assignment, experimental group, control group, independent variable, and dependent variable.