1. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division TRB Innovations in Travel Modeling Conference The Path to a Staged Implementation of Integrated Models May 22, 2006

2. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Key Areas of Implementation Performance Outreach Support for Program: internal and external Strong Implementation Program Models

3. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Outreach Gain clear understanding of needs of decision makers Develop tool with needs in mind Seek opportunities to use models to address decision makers’ questions Making connections with decision makers will generate seeds of support later

4. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Support Internal support is crucial External support is useful Data collection

5. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Strong Implementation Program Choose projects wisely Develop skilled staff Use models efficiently, automate Develop effective communication skills –Use common language and terminology –Educate audience Relate findings in real world terms –Tell a logical story, intuitively make sense –Identify trade-offs and economic impacts

6. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Statewide Integrated Model Key criteria Flexible geographic scale Truly integrated components Hybrid formulation –Dynamic activities –Static economy Activity-based models –Agent-based micro- simulation –“Tight consistency” Affordable and tractable Goals Full integration Explicit representation of economy, land use, and transport Linkages to environ- mental analyses and performance indicators Build on lessons learned from first generation Connect with metropolitan modeling framework

7. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Transitional Model Structure Economic and demographic (ED) Production allocation and activity interaction (PI) Household allocation (HA) Land development (LD) Person travel (PT) Commercial travel (CT) Transportation supply (TS) Utilities Aggregate Microsimulation ED HA PI LD PT TS CT Spatial activity Transport

8. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Metroscope Connection of economic, real estate, and transport models for the Portland metropolitan area –Regional econometric model –Residential real estate model –Nonresidential real estate model –Transportation model –GIS accounting and visualization Used for long-range land use and transportation studies

9. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) Stochastic microsimulation of household and business location Connects to standard Oregon metropolitan models (JEMnR) and Oregon small urban models (OSUM) Develops land use scenarios for risk analysis and land use and transportation policy testing Is being used in small metropolitan area long-range planning study

10. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division So, you want to develop an integrated model?

11. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Oregon Advice on Integrated Modeling Institutional Build internal support Build external support Identify issues and questions of interest Statewide collaboration, build bridges to other agencies Invest in staff

12. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division Oregon Advice on Integrated Modeling Technical Think big, start small –Prototypes –Building blocks –Simplest thing that can possibly work Short development cycles Design integration with other models & data systems at outset Design user interface first, models second Early applications Build good communications skills for technical staff

13. Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division For more information: http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/TMR.shtml Bill Upton Manager, Oregon Transportation Modeling Program (503) 986-4106 Email: William.J.Upton@odot.state.or.usWilliam.J.Upton@odot.state.or.us Becky Knudson Senior Transportation Analyst Rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us (503) 986-4113