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The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010-11.

Published byDennis Hodge Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010-11."— Presentation transcript:

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6 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010-11.

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16 Temperature42.731.326.933.043.835.530.4 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo AvgDJF Winter Avg Best Strong1973-7445.530.023.835.346.936.329.7 Best Strong1988-8944.835.237.722.843.836.931.9 Best Moderate1998-9948.034.727.741.242.538.834.5 Best Moderate1970-7144.438.927.631.543.637.232.7 Strong1949-5049.837.130.335.440.038.534.3 Strong1955-5640.031.827.934.445.235.931.4 Strong1975-7645.934.027.542.744.939.034.7 Strong1999-200051.935.831.740.847.141.436.1 Moderate1954-5548.936.932.431.443.738.733.6 Moderate1964-6549.832.331.432.333.935.932.0 Moderate2007-0843.929.927.527.741.634.128.4 La Nina Composite All Years46.634.229.634.143.037.532.7 Precipitation2.301.641.151.312.448.844.10 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total Best Strong1973-742.362.591.051.121.188.304.76 Best Strong1988-891.960.850.980.592.136.512.42 Best Moderate1998-994.301.192.301.711.4910.995.20 Best Moderate1970-710.941.741.480.890.875.924.11 Strong1949-500.211.950.691.220.714.783.86 Strong1955-560.050.300.671.350.542.912.32 Strong1975-762.752.030.530.662.538.503.22 Strong1999-20001.632.180.462.212.939.414.85 Moderate1954-550.040.672.193.270.716.886.13 Moderate1964-654.731.732.351.813.5114.135.89 Moderate2007-080.202.910.973.102.729.906.98 La Nina Composite All Years1.741.651.241.631.768.024.52

17 Snowfall1.34.35.85.02.619.015.1 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalWinter Total Best Strong1973-740.08.04.80.30.513.613.1 Best Strong1988-890.1 0.26.50.06.96.8 Best Moderate1998-990.01.44.34.72.512.910.4 Best Moderate1970-710.03.61.38.27.420.513.1 Strong1949-500.03.41.40.50.25.55.3 Strong1955-560.83.88.28.44.425.620.4 Strong1975-767.12.85.2 1.521.813.2 Strong1999-20000.03.94.92.12.012.910.9 Moderate1954-550.0 5.77.57.020.213.2 Moderate1964-652.16.24.27.79.629.818.1 Moderate2007-080.49.44.88.90.624.123.1 La Nina CompositeAll Years1.03.94.15.53.217.613.4 # Days > T(> 2.0)1 (0)4 (1)5 (1)4 (1)2 (0)16 (3)13 (3) YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalWinter Total Best Strong1973-7407 (1)5 (1)1114 (2)13 (2) Best Strong1988-8911110 (1)013 (1)12 (1) Best Moderate1998-99035 (1)4214 (1)12 (1) Best Moderate1970-7102 (1)34 (2)3 (2)12 (5)9 (3) Strong1949-5003 (1)3219 (1)8 (1) Strong1955-5632 (1)6 (2) 4 (1)21 (6)14 (5) Strong1975-762 (2)36 (1)4 (1)116 (4)13 (2) Strong1999-20000441 (1)110 (1)9 (1) Moderate1954-55005 (1)6 (1)3 (1)14 (3)11 (2) Moderate1964-6523 (1)44 (1)9 (1)22 (3)11 (2) Moderate2007-0826 (2)6 (1)4 (1)119 (5)16 (5) La Nina CompositeAll Years1344215 (3)12 (2)

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19 YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 1889-25.9-1.7-27.5-0.5-1.922.01.62.111.14.223.022.0 189020.811.014.36.93.65.8-2.3-3.19.33.62.60.6 1906-3.5-7.4-5.2-8.81.3-3.96.815.518.39.121.74.7 19075.11.6-0.34.510.08.3-4.3-8.20.20.6-2.08.8 19105.615.212.75.30.522.020.59.815.310.319.715.9 19113.21.63.52.0-8.2-12.0-12.8-12.1-8.8-11.7-7.3-1.4 19175.110.018.121.8 21.228.334.829.715.221.022.5 191814.616.6-2.016.810.0-4.7-14.1-4.4-8.2-5.01.3-8.0 19387.53.4-3.63.613.118.018.513.07.512.81.913.8 193917.07.711.69.4-1.1-1.58.1-0.5-9.4-14.7-8.0-8.6

20 Temperature42.731.326.933.043.835.530.4 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo AvgDJF Winter Avg 1938-3945.136.138.529.445.939.034.7 1917-1847.723.417.333.950.834.624.9 1910-1143.831.932.836.046.838.333.6 1906-0741.835.731.133.452.138.833.4 1889-9040.046.829.834.038.337.836.9 La Nina Composite43.734.829.933.346.837.732.7 Precipitation2.301.641.151.312.448.844.10 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total 1938-392.700.551.280.981.146.652.81 1917-180.060.450.941.530.483.462.92 1910-110.281.250.616.761.069.968.62 1906-073.081.624.540.912.5012.657.07 1889-902.380.141.490.531.155.692.16 La Nina Composite1.700.801.772.141.277.684.72 Snowfall1.34.35.85.02.619.015.1 YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total 1938-392.00.06.15.80.314.211.9 1917-180.15.310.30.10.015.815.7 1910-110.21.30.112.30.214.113.7 1906-076.00.12.57.10.015.79.7 1889-900.0M7.34.02.0MM La Nina Composite1.7 5.35.90.515.112.9

21 The atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, as well as SST anomalies indicate moderate to strong La Nina conditions already present across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean SST anomalies are around-1.4 o C in the 4 Niño regions, indicative of the beginning of a strong La Nina episode Based on recent trends and a majority of the statistical and dynamic coupled model forecasts, La Nina conditions should maintain their intensity during the next several months and will likely continue into at least the spring months of 2011 – possibly challenging some of the stronger La Nina episodes on record.

22 Based on past 10 year temperature trends and composites of past moderate to strong La Nina winter seasons, there exists a slightly better than normal chance that winter temperatures in eastern Kansas and Missouri will be above average Choosing a best analog set of the top 4 matching winter seasons based on SST anomalies and MEI time series, the highest probabilities point towards warmer than average temperatures early in the winter season, with less predictability and larger variability later in the winter There is no reliable predictability concerning precipitation or snowfall based on La Nina composites or analogs with a wide range of historical outcomes

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