1. Flowing to the Future: Climate Change and Elk River, British Columbia Stewart Rood H2oh! Workshop, Sparwood, May 2011

2. Climate Change is Certain

3. Climate Change has probably accelerated Athabasca Glacier Columbia Icefield

4. Castle River Are water supplies from the Rocky Mountains changing? - Mountains as water towers – water for humans and ecosystems - Rivers integrate precipitation over watersheds - Environmental sentinels

5. * Hydrographic Apex of North America The Crown of the Continent: A unique study system

6. 8% correspondence -0.13%/year

7. Red DeerBowHighwoodCastleWatertonBellyoverall Jan n/a Feb n/a Mar4/6 + Apr May6/6 - Jun6/6 - Jul6/6 - Aug6/6 - Sep6/6 - Oct6/6 - Nov n/a Dec n/a decreaseincrease P < 0.1 P < 0.05 P < 0.01 no change

8. Declining Mountain Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent (maximum, cm) 1991

9. What about the Elk Valley? Fernie Alpine Resort

10. 2011 Morrissey Ridge

12. 2 3 1 Elk River 50 km Kootenay River Koocanusa Reservoir Montana, U.S.A. Alberta B.C. * Wigwam River Fernie Sparwood * Elkford Elko

13. 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Fernie Phillips

14. Winter Spring Summer Autumn

15. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Discharge ( Q month ; m 3 /s) Annual

16. Environmental Variation Weather – Day-to-Day Climate – longer-term, usually 30 years+ - ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation - Tropical Pacific Ocean – about 5 year intervals - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - Northern Pacific Ocean – about 30 year intervals Climate Change – Directional warm phasecool phase

17. Warm & Dry Cool & Wet ?

18. Libby Dam, MT Hydroelectric power generation Environmental flows – white sturgeon & salmon Reservoir regulation - recreation Kootenai River

19. University of Lethbridge students: Ryan Caine - Cranbrook Krista Coombs - Fernie Ann Delyea - Fernie Colleen Phelan – Cranbrook Mary Louise Polzin – Baynes Lake Thanks (Fernie): Blair Craig Steve Kuijt Robin Siggers Summary: Elk River flows have slightly declined over the past century. The pattern is less prominent than for adjacent rivers in Alberta. Greater variation has been associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. With an apparent cool phase of the PDO, we might expect relatively cool & wet conditions for the next decade+.

20. Flowing to the Future: Climate Change and Elk River, British Columbia Stewart Rood H2oh! Workshop, Sparwood, May 2011