1. Drivers of China’s Arctic Interests and China and the Arctic as a topic in IR Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen & LI Xing Aalborg Universitet Rasmus@cantab.net

2. Chinese Core Interests—and the Arctic The Core Interests of the Communist Party of China: – Continued party rule/political stability – Territorial integrity (Taiwan, Tibet) – Economic growth Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 2

3. Chinese Core Interests—and the Arctic Climate change, weather patterns, agriculture, food security, political stability Energy security, raw materials, shipping lanes, economic growth—and political stability --------------------------------------------------------- Political stability requires economic growth, requires energy security, raw materials and marine transportation security, including in the Arctic China is a rising power, sees itself as a a legitimate stakeholder, also in the Arctic Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 3

4. Challenges to Chinese energy security China increasingly importer of especially oil Persian Gulf militarily dominated by USA The Oceans dominated by the US Navy (Piracy) Malacca problem for China China as a continental power, naval power of the future? Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 4

5. China, the Arctic and International Relations theory China and the Arctic, a story of a rising power How to integrate China and the Arctic in theoretically informed International Relations research and teaching? Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 5

6. China, the Arctic and IR theory Power transition (realism) – the rise of China as a global power Liberalism – the importance of sub-state actors and their interests Institutionalism – the importance of the Law of the Sea Constructivism – the importance of discourse on the Arctic Transnationalism – the importance of science, environment and indigenous people Foreign policy analysis – Foreign policy making in China Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 6

7. Power Transition, China and the Arctic China is the rising power—what to do? Three perspectives: – John Mearsheimer: contain China, Sino-US war is inevitable – Joseph Nye: work with China, ”integrate, but hedge” – Deborah Larson: status competition is dangerous and unstable Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 7

8. Power transition, energy and shipping Hegemony, energy and shipping: the USA controls global energy and shipping Will a rising China tolerate US energy and shipping hegemony? Will the USA integrate China in global energy and shipping or contain it? China and energy and shipping in the Arctic: containment or integration? Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 8

9. Power transition and the Arctic Council Who was right in Kiruna, Mearsheimer, Nye or Larson? Power in the Arctic Council: zero sum game (Mearsheimer), positive sum game (Nye) and/or status-competition (Larson)? It seems like Nye and perhaps Larson were right Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 9

10. Liberalism and Chinese sub-state actors and the Arctic The power of special interests in international politics (as opposed to systemic interests) The most powerful actor in Chinese society, the Chinese Communist Party? The core interests of the CCP—and the Arctic: – Continued party rule: growth and social stability—food security—climate (change)—and the Arctic – Territorial integrity: Tibet—indigenous/minority rights— South China Sea—Law of the Sea – Economic growth: energy security and shipping—the Arctic Other sub-state actors in China and their interests Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 10

11. Institutionalism/legal theory, China and the Arctic Do institutions, rules matter? Can institutions facilitate cooperation, create common expectations, raise levels of information? The central institution in Arctic affairs: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea China and the law of the sea in the Arctic— and in the South China Sea Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 11

12. Constructivism Does how we speak about international politics affect international politics? How do we speak about the Arctic? How does China speak about the Arctic? Which Chinese voices say what about China and the Arctic? ”Near Arctic State”, Arctic as common heritage Creating norms with effects Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 12

13. Transnationalism (science and environment) Nye and Keohane (1971): Non-state actors moving information, goods, people and money across borders Arctic is ”science-dense”, lots of science in the discussion, activities. Science close to politics. Arctic science is transnational—is there an Arctic epistemic community? China is also moving into the Arctic through science Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 13

14. The Third Pole Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 14

15. Arctic, Antarctic, the Third Pole and China The importance of the cryosphere, the world of ice How many climatologists, geophysicists, glaciologists, hydrologists in the room? North Pole, South Pole and the THIRD POLE – the Himalaya China is very much a country of the Third Pole

16. The Third Pole links China to the North and South Pole and to other countries in new ways: Science, science diplomacy Connection with Arctic states, all states with minorities and indigenous peoples Crucial minority question on the Third Pole: Tibet What does China learn from the Arctic, not only in Science but also concerning governance?

17. Transnationalism (indigenous people) Arctic Council stands out for the role of indigenous people as permanent participants Self-government for indigenous people is among most interesting characteristics of the Arctic Indigenous people are often organized transnationally and operate transnationally How does China deal with self-governing indigenous people taking its own record on Tibet, etc into account? Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 17

18. Foreign Policy Analysis How does China make (Arctic) foreign policy? How does a closed system work? How does China test policies with the outside world? Testing the ground through surrogates, talking heads, academics, etc. Closed policy making process Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Rasmus@cantab.net, Aalborg Universitet 18

19. Conclusion Be THEORETICAL Think about SCIENCE Think about the THIRD POLE