1. ‘White Flight’ or Positive Contact?: Local Diversity and Attitudes to Immigration in Britain, 2009-11 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; @epkaufm

2. Theoretical Framework Threat theory (Key 1949; Blalock 1967; Putnam 2007) Contact theory (Allport 1954; Pettigrew & Tropp 2006)

3. Race, immigrants, immigration, far right parties 24 studies at tract level (pop. 7,000) or below: 75% favour contact theory 44 studies at county level (100,000) or above: 84% support threat theory

4. Contact Theory Explanation Contact Theory: Feeling of threat at metro or Local Authority/County level as minorities grow, but positive contact at local level creates accommodation Threat Theory: Whites feel threat, self-select from local diversity into wider region through ‘white flight’ or white avoidance (i.e. Crowder and South 2000; 2008). Leaves tolerant behind. Selection bias problem in many contextual studies.

5. Sources: Harris 2012; Census 2012; @election-data 2014

6. Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for all white respondents Source: Citizenship Surveys, 2009-10; 2010-11

7. Multi-level regression on desire to reduce immigration Table entries are logged odds with robust standard errors, clustered by ward (N=1709) and Local Authority (N=364). *p<.05,**p<.01,***p<.001. Comports with literature on British far right (Bowyer 2008; Ford and Goodwin 2010; Harris 2012; Biggs and Knauss 2012) as well as literature review Source: Citizenship Surveys 2009-10; 2010-11. White UK-born only.

9. Selection Bias/Endogeneity 'Most studies of contextual effects have been plagued by concerns about selection…Existing studies often try to control for various aspects of this selection but in the end few have been able to solve this fundamental problem. ' - Abrajano and Hajnal (2009) 'What are the mechanisms through which racial context operates on thoughts of mobility? Although the optimal approach for answering questions about motivations would be to use longitudinal data that measure both attitudes and behavior at the individual level, these data do not exist.‘- Krysan (2002)

10. Selection Bias/Endogeneity Test with BHPS-UKHLS and Understanding Society Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded Compare white British who enter and leave diverse wards Compare white British movers (enter/leave) with those who stay Proxy questions for attitude to immigration

13. Local Council Wards in the UK have a population of about 10,000 to 30,000 people. Have you moved Local Council Ward to live somewhere new at any time in the past ten years? – No 66.24% (1085) – Yes 28.39% (465) – Don’t know 5.37% (88) As far as you know, did the last Local Council Ward in which you lived have…? – More people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 37.4% (174) – Fewer people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 22.8% (106) – About the same number of people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 23.2% (108) – Don’t know 16.6% (77)

14. Racism How comfortable or uncomfortable do you think you would feel if the following people you may come into contact with were from an ethnic minority? [The Prime Minister]: – 32.3% of white British ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ uncomfortable (N = 1,638)

15. Immigration Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased, reduced or should it remain the same? – Increased a lot 2.26% – Increased a little 2.69% – Remain the same 15.32% – Reduced a little 18.50% – Reduced a lot 56.72% – Don’t know 4.52%

16. White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrsSample Not White British53%47%47 White British62%38%239 Total60%40%286

17. Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To WhiterTo Diverse Sample very comfortable61%39%83 fairly comfortable67%33%33 neither comfortable n57%43%46 fairly uncomfortable64%36%11 very uncomfortable76%24%25 don't know58%42%24 Total63%37%222

21. ‘White Flight’ or Positive Contact?: Local Diversity and Attitudes to Immigration in Britain, 2009-11 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; @epkaufm