1. Teaching the Physics of Climate Change Part 2 Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee PHYSCON Feb 2008 This ppt available on www.vicphysics.org - Teachers - Teaching the Science of Climate Change

2. Human induced changes  How can we understand it? –It’s all a matter of physics!

4. IPCC SynRep

5. Human induced changes  How can we understand it? –Computer models are the only way of taking all this into account. –Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, air, water, between small blocks of the atmosphere. –Here’s the basic physics:

7. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –These are just F = ma applied to moving fluids –This is conservation of mass –This governs the way heat flows between systems

8. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The climate system is modelled as cells of air (or water) and the equations are applied to see how much air/heat flows between each pair of cells –This is repeated all around the Earth –The models have improved by making the cells smaller –They are now about 110 km square by 1 km high

9. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The initial conditions have to be fed into the model and then it generates weather and climate patterns over hours, days, years or centuries! –Here is the result of one:

11. Courtesy of Graeme Pearman

12. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –Models are tested to see if they generate past known climate patterns. –They are becoming more and more accurate. over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or centuries! –Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed

14.  The science of climate change

15. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.

16. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.

17. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The following diagrams are taken from the AR4 Synthesis Report

25. Human induced changes  There is one problem.  The IPCC report is based on thoroughly reviewed work which is now several years old.  Because of the processes it goes through it is very conservative.  A number of developments have occurred since it was put together.

26. Human induced changes  The understanding of the various feedback effects has improved considerably  This is a report given to the UK parliament June 2007.  It outlines recent research showing that feedback effects are more worrying than previously thought.

27. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in

28. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –We have to reduce them but we are extremely dependant on them

29. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –Cutting car use has to be a priority ABS

30. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!

31. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport

32. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport – maybe these?

33. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport – certainly these

34. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport – definitely these

35. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –These are a problem!

36. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –This could be fun. Maybe we need to be a bit more relaxed about getting places!

37. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Maybe video conferencing could reduce our need for ‘business’ travel?

38. What can we do?  Lower CO 2 options –Sequestration of CO 2 from power stations - ? –More efficient coal stations –Combined cycle gas generators

39. What can we do?  Lower CO 2 options –Nuclear ?

40. What can we do?  Sustainable options 60 kilowatt (10 year ago) 1300 kilowatt now

41. What can we do?  Sustainable options We make per day about: 5 – 10 kWh Feed in to grid about 3 – 6 kWh Draw from grid about 2 – 4 kWh

42. What can we do?  Sustainable options Gas used for hot water since installation last October ago: NONE at all

43. What can we do?  Sustainable options

44. What can we do?  Sustainable options –Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’ –Potentially a very large resources – (get pic!)

45. What can we do?  Sustainable options –The ‘base load problem’? –We are no where near having that problem yet! Spot the renewables!

46. What can we do?  Sustainable options – base load? –Wide distribution of sources evens out the load –Linking them is not as difficult as we are told –Solar feeds power in at peak use time –Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas) –Other storage options possible in future –HVDC

47. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –Energy carried in transmission line is area under the V² graph –V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV (hence 500 kV AC lines) –So energy carried by DC is twice that of same value peak voltage AC power DC power

48. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –High Voltage DC transmission –Basslink provides peak and stores excess

49. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –Making big difference to long distance transmission –Carries twice the power –Can go 1000’s of km (AC < 1000 km)

50. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –High power high voltage semiconductors have made the difference

51. What can we do?  Sustainable options –Area needed to collect ALL of Australia’s energy use.

52. What can we do?

53.  Sustainable options Where are the solar collectors?

54. What can we do?  Sustainable options This is in sunny Germany!

55. What can we do?  Sustainable options We have to get away from this...

56. What can we do?  Sustainable options...to this

57. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in

58. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders Bolt talks of “Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery” flying around the world, then has a go at the UN Climate Change conference in Bali next month where 12000 people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is too small a word for so monstrous a circus. If it wasn't for the fact the planet actually hasn't warmed for nine years now, I'd cry.”

59. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders

60. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders –“We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…

61. The human response  Change the light bulbs –Yes, and turn down the thermostat, –but that is a very tiny start

62. The human response –Is there something a bit odd here?

63. The human response

64.  The need for real change –It will cost –But many jobs could be created –It will cost much more if we don’t start now

67.  But remember them?

68. Education  That’s where we come in –The science leads to understanding –The need for optimism

69.  This ppt can be downloaded from www.vicphysics.orgwww.vicphysics.org – Teachers www.vicphysics.org -Feedback: -keith.b@physics.org keith.b@physics.org -Resources (more at end): $1 realclimate.org

70. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in

71.   6.2.2 Role of scientists in the climate debate   These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by essential governing bodies, as evidenced by ongoing plans to build coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and sequestration. In our view, there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming, because of a fundamental difference between the threat posed by climate change and most prior global threats.   In the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and United States, a crisis could be precipitated only by action of one of the parties. In contrast, the present threat to the planet and civilization, with the United States and China now the principal players (though, as Fig. 10 shows, Europe also has a large responsibility), requires only inaction in the face of clear scientific evidence of the danger.   Thus scientists are faced with difficult choices between communication of scientific information to the public and focus on basic research, as there are inherent compromises in any specific balance. Former American Vice President Al Gore, at a plenary session of the December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, challenged earth scientists to become involved in informing the public about global climate change. The overwhelmingly positive audience reaction to his remarks provides hope that the large gap between scientific understanding and public knowledge about climate change may yet be closed.

72.   J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4,   G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6,   A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1,   D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4,   A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2,   M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2   1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA   2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA   3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA   4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA   5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA   6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA   7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA   8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France   9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA   10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA   11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA   12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA   Received: 23 October 2006 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 December 2006   Revised: 29 March 2007 – Accepted: 15 April 2007 – Published: 7 May 2007

73.  Resources for teachers - text:  The Weather Makers – Tim Flannery –Good, popular  Climate Change: Turning up the heat –Barry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientist  Rough Guides: Climate Change –Sound, quite good description of the science  Heat – George Monbiot –A sound journalistic approach to action  Scientific American August 2007 –Good description of the scientific position  Physics World Feb 2007 –Good description of the models (Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen)  Physics World July 2007 –‘Bright ideas’ about physics and the energy problem  Also see Scientific American Jan 2008 for more on Solar Energy

74.  Resources for teachers - web:  RealClimate.org –Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with answers to questions and sceptics.  United Nations Environment Programme: –www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/ www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/ –Download the Global Environment Outlook report  Climate Code Red –David Spratt and Philip Sutton –Download (free) from –www.climatecodered.net www.climatecodered.net