1. Robert M. Aune Advanced Satellite Products Branch NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/CoRP Madison, WI FY04 Research Activities at CIMSS

2. Projects Continuing Projects Cloud initialization using GOES sounders (Benjamin/Schreiner) Obs-based objective analysis for nowcasting (Petersen) MODIS cloud/moisture assimilation over Antarctica (Lazarra) Highway visibility prediction for Wisconsin DOT (Lindstrom) GOES retrieval monitoring Realtime CRAS production New Projects MODIS cloud phase/multi-layer assimilation (Baum) CRAS moisture/clouds for NWS (Central/Western Regions) Cloud physics validation using GOES (Wade, Harrington) Agricultural applications with UW Soils Dept Benchmark NCEP WRF (NMM) on new CIMSS computer (JCSDA) Analysis of Record (Coleman, Morel) Advisor, Wisconsin Space Grant Consortium, Undergraduate Grants Program

3. CIMSS Regional Assimilation System To assess the impact of space- based observations on numerical weather prediction First real time prediction system to use cloud and moisture products from the GOES sounders (1995) Purpose CRAS

4. CRAS Configuration Model:Pseudo non-hydrostatic, explicit moist physics Grid:Limited area, re-locatable Arakawa C Projection:Lambert conformal/polar stereo Resolution:Horizontal: 61km to 10km Vertical: Sigma, ~40 levels, floating top Platforms:AIX, IRIX, Linux Performance:65 minutes on a single 2.2 GHz Intel Xeon (Linux) (60hr fcst, 151x97x38 grid, dx=61 km, tstep=300 sec) Input Observations In situ:RAOBs, surface data, ACARS, profilers Geostationary:3-layer precipitable water - GOES-9/10/12 sounders Cloud-top pressure and effective cloud amount - GOES-9/10/12 sounders, GOES-12 imager 4-layer thickness - GOES-9/10/12 sounders Cloud-track and water vapor winds - GOES-9/10/12 Polar:Cloud-top pressure and effective cloud amount - MODIS (Aqua and Terra) Other:Gridded hourly precip, Stage II, from NCEP SST and sea ice coverage from NESDIS IMS

5. 48 hour forecast of 24 hour accumulated precipitation ( > 6mm ) from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) valid 12UTC, September 26, 2002. Validating rain gauges are shown in green. Threat score:.2035; Threat bias: 1.45. 48 hour forecast of 24 hour accumulated precipitation ( > 6mm ) from the NCEP Eta forecast model valid 12UTC, September 26, 2002. Validating rain gauges are shown in green. Threat score:.1654; Threat bias:.90. The figures below show 48-hour forecast of 24-hour precipitation accumulation ( > 6mm ) valid 12 UTC September 26, 2002, from the CRAS real-time forecast and the operational NCEP Eta forecast. The CRAS uses 3-layer precipitable water and cloud top pressure retrievals from the GOES sounders to initialize water vapor and clouds. The precipitation for this case was generated by Tropical Storm Isidore as it came ashore. CRASNCEP Eta 61km CRAS Outperforms 22km Eta

6. 48 hour accumulated precipitation from the 61 km CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) forecast valid 12 UTC, September 14, 2003. 48 hour accumulated precipitation from the National Weather Service 12km operational Eta model forecast valid 12 UTC, September 14, 2003.

7. Real-time CRAS at CIMSS All forecast initialized at 00/12 UTC LocationResBCsHoursInput_____________________ CONUS61 kmGFS60GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc, precip Central (nest) 20 kmCRAS36GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc, precip Antarctica48 kmGFS48MODIS clds, TPW, winds NE Pacific40 kmGFS60GOES PW3, winds, clds, sfc Production Machines Dual 2.0 GHz Intel Xeon, 1Gbyte RAM, Linux, Intel FORTRAN Dual 2.4 GHz Intel Xeon, 2Gbyte RAM, Linux, Intel FORTRAN Website Production sgi Octane (Dual 300 MHz R12K) running xsau graphics package (xlib)

8. Products available from the four CRAS real-time production runs. 61 km CONUS 40 km NE PAC 20 km Cent USObserved radar 48 km Antarctica CRAS forecast imagery CRAS precipitation forecast CRAS 12-hr forecast radar

9. 36 hour loop (hourly) of forecast 11um images from the realtime 20km CRAS commencing 12UTC, August 10, 2004

10. 24-hr forecast products from the Antarctic CRAS valid July 22, 2003. Shown are IR brightness temperature (upper left), total precipitable water (center), and 850 hPa heights and winds (right). Antarctic CRAS

11. Recent CRAS Validation Products http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/daily/satellite/satellite.html CRAS 24hr and 12hr forecast 11um images validated against GOES Imager CRAS 36hr forecast 11um satellite image at 40km resolution CRAS 36hr forecast 6.7um satellite image at 40km resolution SATELLITE VALIDATION CRAS forecasts 11um and 6.5um satellite imagery. This imagery is being validated with actual GOES imagery. SURFACE/UPPER AIR VALIDATION CRAS surface and upper air forecasts are validated against observation. CRAS 12-hr forecast surface Td validated against observation CRAS 12Z surface wind initialization validated against observation http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/daily/surface/surface_validation.html CRAS 36hr forecast 11um satellite image at 40km resolution

12. GOES-12 CLOUD/PW DATA IN THE 20-km CRAS GOES-12 imagery is mapped onto the CRAS map projection and used to validate the CRAS forecast imagery. A comparison of a 24-hr, 18-hr, 12-hr and 6-hr forecast 11um image with actual GOES imagery is shown above. A quantitative validation approach is under development.

13. Can Numerical Prediction Models Forecast Highway Visibility? Requirements for Visibility Prediction Powerful computers to allow higher resolution (horizontal and vertical) while maintaining timely delivery New observing systems with higher spatial and temporal coverage that observe low-level moisture, aerosols, winds, and pollutants Sophisticated model physics to predict cloud formation and dissipation Mass conserving model dynamics to accurately predict the transport of cloud and moisture Improved data assimilation methods The CRAS is used at CIMSS to exploit the spatial and temporal advantages of the GOES-10 sounder to initialize moisture and clouds in the Eastern Pacific. A 24-hr CRAS forecast of low level RH is shown here with areas of low visibility depicted in red. Limitations Accurate and timely observations of clouds and water vapor are required to predict the onset and dissipation of precipitation and fog Forecast models generally don’t conserve mass and gradient structures Need high-resolution climatologies of surface parameters to specify the lower boundary

14. The CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) forecast model incorporates a third-order time filter, semi- implicit time stepping and a sixth-order spatial filter to reduce the dissipation of gradient information in the forecast. The moisture transport experiment shown here illustrates the advantage of using a sixth-order filter in place of fourth-order horizontal diffusion. The moisture advecting around the eddy is smoothed using diffusion. 4 th Order Diffusion 6 th Order Filter

15. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) tower locations maintained by WisDOT Surface stations reporting fog at 15UTC, Dec 6, 2003 30 hour surface relative humidity forecast from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) valid 18UTC, Dec 6, 2003 36 hour forecast time series of temperature, dew point, wind, precipitation and cloud cover from the CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS) initialized at 12UTC Dec 5, 2003. Hourly water vapor and cloud observations from the GOES-12 sounder are used to initialize 36-hr CRAS forecasts for central U.S. Time series plots are generated for instrumented sites used by the Road Weather Information System (RWIS) maintained by WisDOT.

16. An Objective Nowcasting Tool that Incorporates Geostationary Satellite Measurements Robert M. Aune Advanced Satellite Products Branch NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/CoRP and Ralph Petersen Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies University of Wisconsin, Madison Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone January 12, 2004 Project Goals Develop an objective analysis system for nowcasting that is observation based, i. e. minimal dependence on forecast models. Give priority to preserving vertical and horizontal gradients in the observed fields with the goal of detecting extreme variations in atmospheric parameters and identifying the onset of significant weather events. Must be computationally efficient to allow fast dissemination. Be capable of updating forecast guidance in the near term.

17. Analysis of GOES-12 level 2 (.9σ-.7σ) PW valid 15UTC 04Nov03 after seven analysis updates Upper left is corresponding GOES sounder image. Observation fit is shown at right

18. 3-hour nowcast of GOES-12 level 2 (.9σ-.7σ) PW valid 18UTC 04Nov03 Upper left is corresponding GOES sounder image. Observation fit is shown at right

19. Analysis of Record Summit (USWRP) Develop a realtime 5km analysis of surface parameters to validate the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Issues: 1) Funding to support 30 minute latency 2) Can we use proprietary datasets? 3) Do we have to use model-generated pseudo- observations? 4) Do we impose dynamical and physical constraints? 5) How do we validate the AOR? 6) How can satellite data contribute? 7) How can satellite data benefit from the AOR?

20. Collaborations Obs-based objective analysis for nowcasting (Petersen) Optimal utilization of the GOES sounders in for the Rapid Update Cycle (Benjamin) Cloud initialization using MODIS multi-layer/cloud phase retrievals (Baum) Wisconsin fog prediction (WI DOT, SSEC) Agricultural forecast products (UW Soils) USWRP Workshops Mesoscale Observing Systems Workshop Regional Realtime NWP Workshop Analysis of Record (AoR) Summit (Advisory Committee) Working Groups WRF 3-D Variational Analysis Working Group

21. Reviews Weather and Forecasting: 2 Monthly Weather Review: 2 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: 1 Publications The CIMSS Regional Assimilation System: Adding value to Realtime Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Predicting Hazardous Highway Conditions with a Mesoscale Prediction Model. A Nowcasting Analysis System that Leverages Information from Geostationary Satellites Outreach Natural Hazardous Workshop, Girl Scouts USA Concerns To many requests – not enough people!