1. David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program www.usclivar.org legler @ usclivar.org CLIVAR Welcome Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop/CLIVAR Drought Workshop October 2008 Thanks to these additional sponsors

2. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an multidisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR coordinates activities in support of its mission to observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. http://www.clivar.org

3. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas weeks - seasons - interannual seasons - interannual - decadal decadal - centennial

4. CLIVAR Drought Workshop, Wed-Fri Observing and monitoring drought Drought impacts, products, and addressing user needs Simulating drought Mechanisms that contribute to drought Predictability of drought/prediction capabilities Understanding and attribution of drought and its impacts incorporating climate predictions /projections in the development and delivery of drought products to meet societal needs

5. DRICOMP (DRought In COupled Models) Project Follow-on to CMEP (Coupled Model Evaluation Project) which was the kernel that lead to a large international workshop (Hawaii) and many papers that contributed to the IPCC FAR. DRICOMP: Evaluation of existing relevant model simulations CMIP3, Paleo Models, NARCCAP, SMIP, C20C Aims: Identify and characterize physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes. Diagnose simulation of drought in current models. 17 projects - supported by NOAA, NASA, NSF, and DOE

6. Defining drought (observations and related model predictands) Coordinating key aspects of the (US) long-term drought research agenda outlined in the 2005 drought workshop recommendations Drought Working Group (16 members: CLIVAR, GEWEX, Service Providers, International Scientists) http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html Coordinated Global Model Experiments Addressing the Role of SSTs and Soil Moisture in Regional Drought Multiple modelling groups performed identical idealized experiments to address issues of model dependence on the response to SSTs (and the role of soil moisture), and to look in more detail at the physical mechanisms linking the SST changes to drought All runs 50+ years, fixed SST patterns added to seasonally varying SST climatology Participating groups/models: NASA (NSIPP1), Lamont(CCM3), NCEP(GFS), GFDL (AM2.1), NCAR (CAM3.5), and COLA/Univ. of Miami/ (CCM3.0)

7. WCRP Extremes Goals To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users. To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users. To design an intercomparison framework through which both observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated. To design an intercomparison framework through which both observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated. To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world. To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world. To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc). To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc). GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to catalyze & coordinate an international focus on drought

8. Have a great workshop!

10. U.S. CLIVAR Outlook Two Major Opportunities Identified: I Drought II Decadal Variability & Prediction Two Major Opportunities Identified: I Drought II Decadal Variability & Prediction US CLIVAR will continue to focus special effort in the interagency and intra-agency context on these topics US CLIVAR panels will continue their coordination, and other activities addressing major research needs, including many that intersect CPPA US CLIVAR welcomes ideas for new Working Groups (contact Panel co-chairs) CPPA community should continue working with US and Int’l CLIVAR

11. International CLIVAR US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee Panels Predictability, Predictions & Applications Interface (PPAI) Working Groups (short- term) Inter-Agency Group (IAG) Federal Program Managers Process Studies & Model improvement (PSMI) Phenomenology, Observations, & Synthesis (POS) Committee Working Groups U.S. CLIVAR Office As of September 2008: Ocean Salinity (completed) MJO (completed…Int’l development) Drought Western Boundary Current High-latitude fluxes Decadal Prediction (to be considered) IESA (to be considered) U.S. CLIVAR Organization “Best Practices” Research Priorities Coordination