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A data-driven model of the state of the African biosphere Martin Jung, Eric Thomas.

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Presentation on theme: "A data-driven model of the state of the African biosphere Martin Jung, Eric Thomas."— Presentation transcript:

1 A data-driven model of the state of the African biosphere Martin Jung, Eric Thomas

2 Meteorology Land use Biosphere- atmosphere exchange (FLUXNET) Biosphere- atmosphere exchange (FLUXNET) Vegetation state from satellites Empirical ‘upscaling’ of FLUXNET Pinty et al 2011 Explanatory (X) variablesTarget (Y) variable

3 Meteorology (7 x 4) Land use (8) Soil (10) Remotely sensed fAPAR Remotely sensed fAPAR Mean annual Mean seasonal cycle Anomalies Raw Random forests Empirical modelling of phenology Explanatory (X) variablesTarget (Y) variable

4 Approach Training with all 48 variables Time period: 1998-2005 Prediction of fAPAR for 2006-2010 Evaluation of predicted fAPAR Case Study Africa

5 Results

6 Forecasting of anomalies Results

7 Improving modelling of anomalies Meteorology (7 x 4 + 7 x 24 ) Land use (8) Soil (10) Remotely sensed fAPAR Remotely sensed fAPAR Mean annual Mean seasonal cycle Anomalies Raw Random forests Lag Cumulativ e Lag Lag Cumulativ e Lag Fire fAPAR Mean season al cycle Variance of anomalies Variable selection based on Genetic Algorithm Back to methods …

8 Forecasting of anomalies improved oldnew New Results

9 Potential applications -In ‘early warning systems’ by using seasonal weather forecasts -In empirical ‘upscaling’ of FLUXNET data beyond satellite era -In Land Surface Models Development of a fully data-driven phenology model

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