1. A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO NATIONAL CENTER FOR HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND METHODS OF ACTIVE PREPARATIO, PREVENTION AND REMEDIAL ACTIONS TO REDUCE THE DAMAGE BECAUSE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (NCHMF) (NCHMF) November, 2015 NCHMF

2. Contents This presentation covers the following sections 1.NCHMF Working Structure 2.NCHMF Products and Services 3.NCHMF Typhoon Forecast System 4.The methods of active preparation, prevention and remedial actions to reduce the damage because of Tropical cyclones and Depressions NCHMF

3. 1.NCHMF Working Structure Management (4) Operations (6) Short Range Meteorological Forecast Division Medium and Long Range Meteorological Forecast Division Marine Forecast Division Numerical Weather Prediction and Remote Sensing Division Northern Region Hydrological Forecast Division Administrative Division Southern Region Hydrological Forecast Division Forecast Assessment and Management Division Planning and Finance Division Communication and Technology Division NHMS NCHMF

4. What does NCHMF do? Issues the weather forecast daily Issues the Warnings of Nation-Wide High impact Weather (Cold surge, Extreme Heat, Gale, tropical cyclones, etc. Services Central Government for Decision-making Services to Regional Hy_met Centers Services to Public and external User Community NCHMF

5. Global NWP products (raw data) GSM from JMA (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) GSM from JMA (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) GFS from NCEP (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 96hrs) GFS from NCEP (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 96hrs) NOGAPS from US Navy (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) NOGAPS from US Navy (0.5 x 0.5, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) GME from DWD (0.3 x 0.3, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) GME from DWD (0.3 x 0.3, 4 times/day, up to 72hrs) GEM from CMC (0.6 x 0.6, 2 times/day, up to 72hrs) GEM from CMC (0.6 x 0.6, 2 times/day, up to 72hrs) UM from KMA (0.5 x 0.5, 2 times/day, up to 72hrs) UM from KMA (0.5 x 0.5, 2 times/day, up to 72hrs) Note: NCHMF purchased full liciense of ECMWF data since 1 st Dec 2011 (0.125 x 0.125, 2 times/day, up to 240hrs) Global model products NCHMF

6. Dự báo mưa Global model products (cont) NCHMF

7. Dự báo Nhiệt Global model products (cont) NCHMF

8. Dự báo Gió Global model products (cont) NCHMF

9. Dự báo khí áp City forecast 3 days Global model products (cont) NCHMF

10. Dự báo khí áp City forecast 10 days Global model products (cont) NCHMF

11. Anually: 10 - 12 Tropical cyclones activate over the East Sea (40% from ES, 60% from WNP) 5-6 Tropical cyclones make landfall or indirectly affect to Vietnam Storm Season: 5-12 (6-11) Tropical cyclones Frequency from1985 – 2010: 123456789101112 0.050.000.100.150.351.101.601.251.601.901.150.45 HaiYan 2013 3. Typhoon Forecast System

12. Monitoring NCHMF

13. 3. Typhoon Forecast System Typhoon analysis:Access directly to Server of JMA – Nhật Bản

14. Kalmaegi (11 – 18/9/2014) – track Mô hình toàn cầu 3. Typhoon Forecast System (Cont) NCHMF

15. Kalmaegi (11 – 18/9/2014) – Intensity Mô hình toàn cầu 3. Typhoon Forecast System (cont) NCHMF

16. Pass Probobility Prediction Xác suất đổ bộ 3. Typhoon Forecast System (Cont) NCHMF

17. 3. Typhoon Forecast System (cont) NCHMF

18. 4. The methods of active preparation, prevention and remedial actions to reduce the damage because of Tropical cyclones and Depressions. 4.1 Raising public awareness of Tropical cyclones and depressions 4.2 Being active to promote the process of preparation 4.3.Implementing the process of prevention, preparation 4.4 Some ways to tackle to storms, depressions.

19. The basic knowledge about Tropical cyclones and depressions The understanding of tropical cyclones, depressions, their impacts and the rules of movement. The abnormality of their features. The understanding about the content of the forecasts of tropical storms, depressions. Terms used in the storming forecast, the areas where they are active, the matter of urgency, the level of danger for each region, the time that tropical storms affect. The way to collect information and the latest content of the prediction of storms and depressions. Real knowledge collected from individual’s experiences Experienced skills about the observation of wind, clouds, seawater, the activity of small animal and the accumulated knowledge that relates to the estimation of storm and depression activity. 4.1 Raising public awareness of Tropical cyclones and Depressions 4.1 Raising public awareness of Tropical cyclones and Depressions

20. The preparation before rainny and flooding season (anually). Building the plans, the methods of prevetion when tropical storms and floods may occur. Making detailed plans for each regions, local areas. Checking, adding, completing the task of preparation before rainny- flooding season. For fishmen, having to prepare essential facilities, boats safely before going to sea. The process of preparation when receiving the storming information. Analysing, estimating the level of danger based on the content of bulletin. Depending on this level to make the methods to tackle and face to situation. Especially, the boats being on the sea have to be active to move far away from storms, depressions or find the suitable places to moor safely. Responsibility of local and governmental organizations, public groups in the process of active preparation for storms, depressions. 4.2. Being active to promote the process of preparation

21. Organizing the prevention, preparation Reinforcing houses, facilities that are important. Preparing for local people to move away and take facilities to safe places. (If there is dangerous situation) Tackling the storms, depressions Organizing to face to storms Preparing to protect buildings, facilities, infrastructure, equipments Preparing for rescue and salvage) Rescue injuried people from dangerous situation Save infrastructure, work and facilities. 4.3.Implementing the process of prevention, preparation

22. Depending on type of the vehicles moving on the sea, their sustainability in front of wave, wind and the level of impacts from storms and depressions that makes the different solving methods to each situation. When hearing the storming forecast, based on the position of each vehicle with position, scopes, direction, speed of movement of storms… that need the method to deal with: Moving the boats far away the area which may be affected by storms, depressions, finding the most safe places for mooring, hiding. If there is an effect from storms, keeping the boat at the suitable location compared to wind direction and trying to escape from storming areas immediately. 4.4 Some ways to tackle to storms, depressions.

23. In the storming situation, the boats have to keep contact with people on the land as well as people on the other boats to find the way to help each other, support or rescue if necessary. People on the land have to keep contact with vehicles acting on the sea everytime, calling boats to move on the land when recognizing the signal of storms, depressions. The vehicles for rescueing are always already to help as necessary. 4.4 Some ways to tackle to storms, depressions. (cont)

24. Responsibilities of local and governmental authorities, associations, communities in urgent recovery after the destruction of storms and flood. for People: Immediately provide rescue and relief to help victims to be stable their lives. Repair or rebuild infrastructure (road systems, dams…), buildings, boats, facilities, rice fields, fishing grounds… - Sớm ổn định sản xuất đời sống. Early stabilizing production and life. 4.5 Remedial action

25. (good preparation) Public awareness and cognition + (Reduce damage) Accurate forecast Well making plan of preparation)

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