1. Task B7. Monitoring and Forecasting for Water Management and Drought/Flood Hazards Goals National scale characterization of snow water resources (Afghanistan’s principal source of supply) on a daily time step. A modeling tool for monitoring and forecasting to support water management and drought/flood hazard decision making in Afghanistan Steps 1.Develop snow pack forecast capability for 3-7 day time frame based on operational NOAA weather forecast model (GFS at 35-km) 2.Graphically summarize time and amount of observed and forecast snow water by sub-basin, province & district, or other spatial unit using GIS techniques, as required or requested (e.g., to support the Kabul Basin Conceptual Model) 3.Assess surface area of Kajakai reservoir for 2004 - 2006 runoff seasons using a combination of high and low resolution imagery, for seasonal runoff volume estimation using reservoir storage-area curve and stream flow from ND WSC.

2. Methodology and Model A spatially distributed version of the Utah Energy Balance model (Tarboton et al., 1994 and 1995) The model was forced solely with remotely sensed data, weather model assimilation fields, and globally available near-real time meteorological data at 6-hour time step (rainfall was daily) The RFE is calculated on a 0.1-degree latitude/longitude grid. The remaining input variables required by the model are downscaled to the same resolution We incorporated a 6 day forecast capability into the model based on NOAA weather forecast model (GFS at 35-km)

3. 6 Day Forecast Implementation

4. SWE Forecast Accuracy

5. Temperature Forecast Accuracy

6. Forecast Effectiveness Able to predict seasonal flooding quite early Able to send out warnings about specific reservoirs March 15 – Jim Verdin sent e-mail to Fahim Zaheer and others warning of the large inflow of water forecast for the Sardeh reservoir. March 16 – Fahim contacted the deputy director of water management to relay the warning and check on the status of the dam March 16 – Fahim relayed positive report on the size of the reservoir and the condition of the dam

7. Positive Result Reservoir did receive a large inflow of water Dam held as predicted. No downstream flooding. There would have been time to make emergency preparations if necessary

8. Kajakai Reservoir Surface Areas March 6, 2003May 11, 2004 February 10, 2006 June 25, 2004 September 9, 2004October 21, 2005 41,653,574.964329,377,243.5317 30,736,252.0417 53,534,607.7918 55,216,663.893633,814,208.5379 ASTER derived surface area extents delivered to ND

9. Kajakai Reservoir Historical Surface Area from Corona Imagery 61,644,482.0790 6/13/1963 Surface Area Derived from Corona imagery Significant sediment deposition in the upper part of the reservoir Circled area no longer fills during high water

10. Reconstruction of Historical Bathymetry 01040 301035 601033.6 9001009.61012.3 9301008.31010.7 9601007.71010 9901006.71009.2 10201006.71009.8 10501006.61010.9 10801006.11010.3 11101005.31004 1140998.91006 1170997.81007.6 1200997.51007.4 12309971003.5 1260994.7998 1290993.1995.6 1320991.4994.3 1350990992.8 Distance 1953 1968

11. Elevation Discrepancy Vertical datum used for the historical elevation values 1051.79 m at the FX2 triangulation station shown in the picture. Position can be located in the Quickbird image on the right Difference at that point should be used to adjust the DEMs or historical data 5 m SPOT DEM30 m SRTM DEM30 m ASTER DEM 21.46 m23.79 m42.79 m

12. Task B7. Monitoring and Forecasting for Water Management and Drought/Flood Hazards Problems Encountered 1.SSMI data format problems 2.SWE runoff grids are not currently programmed to output the data in a useable format 3.Didn’t have storage-area curves, concern that curves based on historical data would no longer be valid 4.Differences in DEMs 5.Historical data accuracy

13. Task B7. Monitoring and Forecasting for Water Management and Drought/Flood Hazards Additional Work To Be Done 1.Update the sub-basins used to calculate SWE volume based on the corrected 90 m SRTM DEM 2.Modify code to create usable daily runoff grids 3.Interface snow model with stream flow model for national monitoring of water availability

15. Example: Kharva Old Area: 9,470,457,081.99 SWE: 7.085 New Area:12,949,485,901.9000 SWE: 9.808