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Modelling the distribution of sub- Antarctic demersal fish communities: An application of new community –modelling method 1 Nicole Hill, Scott Foster,

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Presentation on theme: "Modelling the distribution of sub- Antarctic demersal fish communities: An application of new community –modelling method 1 Nicole Hill, Scott Foster,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Modelling the distribution of sub- Antarctic demersal fish communities: An application of new community –modelling method 1 Nicole Hill, Scott Foster, Guy Duhammel, Philippe Koubbi, Dirk Welsford, Craig Johnson

2 Background- community modelling 2 Understanding the spatial distribution of species and their relationship with environmental factors forms a central tenant in ecology Numerous conservation applications Delineating spatial units Prioritising effort Developing baselines Predicting change Increasing focus on biodiversity and multispecies assemblages rather than individual species Often want to identify regions in space that contain similar assemblage

3 Background- community modelling 3 Ecologists often use distance matrix to summarise multispecies data and then perform ordination, clustering etc Diagnostics, Interpretation, prediction not straightforward

4 Background- community modelling 4 Ecologists often use distance matrix to summarise multispecies data and then perform ordination, clustering etc Diagnostics, Interpretation, prediction not straightforward Model-based alternatives: Model and predict single species & group Group first then predict Do both at once

5 Background- community modelling 5 Ecologists often use distance matrix to summarise multispecies data and then perform ordination, clustering etc Diagnostics, Interpretation, prediction not straightforward Model-based alternatives: Model and predict single species & group Group first then predict Do both at once

6 Regions of Common Profile Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 6 An RCP is a region of environmental space within which the vector of species’ probabilities of being sampled is (relatively) constant and distinct from other regions

7 Regions of Common Profile Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 7 An RCP is a region of environmental space within which the vector of species’ probabilities of being sampled is (relatively) constant and distinct from other regions Depth Prob of Occurrence RCP 1 RCP 2 RCP 3 Species A Species B

8 Regions of Common Profile Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 8 An RCP is a region of environmental space within which the vector of species’ probabilities of being sampled is (relatively) constant and distinct from other regions Across many species and environmental variables Depth Prob of Occurrence RCP 1 RCP 2 RCP 3 Species A Species B RCPSpecies ASpecies B RCP 10.100.75 RCP 20.400.90 RCP 30.700.72 = profile for RCP 1 = profile for RCP 2 = profile for RCP 3

9 Regions of Common Profile Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 9 An RCP is a region of environmental space within which the vector of species’ probabilities of being sampled is (relatively) constant and distinct from other regions Across many species and environmental variables Depth Prob of Occurrence RCP 1 RCP 2 RCP 3 Species A Species B But we don’t know the number of groups or their boundaries to begin with so we have to let the data inform this process (latent variable) RCPSpecies ASpecies B RCP 10.100.75 RCP 20.400.90 RCP 30.700.72 = profile for RCP 1 = profile for RCP 2 = profile for RCP 3

10 Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 ; Foster, Hill, Lyon in prep 10 Regions of Common Profile

11 Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 ; Foster, Hill, Lyon in prep 11 Regions of Common Profile Expected count/ biomass/ occurrence of a particular species at a particular site given that site belongs to a particular RCP

12 Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 ; Foster, Hill, Lyon in prep 12 Regions of Common Profile Expected count/ biomass/ occurrence of a particular species at a particular site given that site belongs to a particular RCP Describes how each species is related to each RCP via environmental variable Site x Species matrix Environmental matrix

13 Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 ; Foster, Hill, Lyon in prep 13 Regions of Common Profile Expected count/ biomass/ occurrence of a particular species at a particular site given that site belongs to a particular RCP Factors that affect catchability of species. Describes how each species is related to each RCP via environmental variable Site x Species matrix Environmental matrix Sampling effects matrix

14 Foster et al 2013. Environmetrics 24: 489-499 ; Foster, Hill, Lyon in prep 14 Regions of Common Profile Expected count/ biomass/ occurrence of a particular species at a particular site given that site belongs to a particular RCP An offset Factors that affect catchability of species. Describes how each species is related to each RCP via environmental variable Site x Species matrix Environmental matrix Sampling effects matrix

15 15 An Application: Sub-Antarctic demersal fish Physical Setting: Largest submarine plateau Geology shaped by volcanism and glaciers Confluence of oceanographic fronts Complex oceanography Nutrient rich waters

16 16 An Application: Sub-Antarctic demersal fish Physical Setting: Largest submarine plateau Geology shaped by volcanism and glaciers Confluence of oceanographic fronts Complex oceanography Nutrient rich waters Biological Setting: Highly productive Foraging areas for birds, mammals Diverse seabed invertebrates Significant fishery for Toothfish and Icefish

17 17 An Application: Sub-Antarctic demersal fish Management Setting: Australian Territory and French Territory Fisheries managed by CCAMLR HIMI World Heritage Listed 1997 HIMI Marine Reserve declared 2002

18 INSERT FACULTY NAME IN FOOTER 18 An Application: Sub-Antarctic demersal fish Existing knowledge on distribution of key fisheries species, but not demersal fish assemblages as a whole Aims: Quantitatively characterise demersal fish assemblages on Kerguelen Plateau Delineate spatial distribution of assemblages Understand relationships with and relative importance of environmental variables

19 INSERT FACULTY NAME IN FOOTER 19 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: The Data Demersal fish trawls from French and Australian scientific surveys 7 surveys throughout 2006, 2010, 2013 Similar gear: Otter trawls, differing mesh 30 min trawls 1000 m max depth Presence/absence 23 species per trawl Dataset200620102013 POKER189205198 RSTS153312138

20 20 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: The Data Covariates correlated <0.7 Initial screening using GAMs for each species and covariate

21 21 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Modelling approach No covariate selection then choose number clusters (RCPs) using BIC

22 22 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Modelling approach No covariate selection then choose number clusters (RCPs) using BIC Covariate selection: Start with all covariates and their quadratics Backwards selection Choose ‘best model’ for given RCP Check nRCPs Survey included as a sampling factor Full model Step 1

23 23 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Results

24 24 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Results Sampling Effects

25 25 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Results

26 26 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Results Hard Clustering SpeciesRCP2RCP7RCP3RCP1RCP5RCP4RCP6 D. eleginoides0.980.950.98 10.840.98 Paraliparis spp00.0100000 A. antipodianus0.530.0200.01000 A. rostrata0.880.110.140.020.0100 Muraenolepis spp0.080.460.410.140.180.060.29 M. maculata0.040.10.740.40.650.140.52 C. gunnari0.01 0.180.020.590.990.95 L. squamifrons0.180.270.840.960.920.430.82 Z. spinifer00.040.060.280.580.410.7

27 27 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Results Hard ClusteringComparison with traditional clustering (survey sites)

28 28 Sub-Antarctic demersal fish: Next steps Refine models Validation. Predictive LL? Provide quantitative baseline of distribution of fish assemblages within the reserve Improve understanding of biodiversity values in region Extend to East Antarctica

29 29 Acknowledgements Rebecca Leaper Patrice Pruvost (MNHN) Romain Causse (MNHN) Tim Lamb (AAD) Stuart Corney (ACE CRC) Mike Sumner (ACE CRC) Australian and French Scientific Observers

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