1. How to Make Analysis and Projection Scenarios Slide 1 Mekong Institute & UNESCO Regional Office-Bangkok Prepared by the Education Policy and Reform Unit UNESCO Bangkok February 2009 Module E5 – Handout 3 Training Course on “Training of Trainers from the Greater Mekong Sub- Region on Decentralized Education Planning in the Context of Public Sector Management Reform” 23 February – 6 March 2009; Khon Kaen, Thailand

2. Step 1  Before starting to work with the TEMPLATE Model, you must SAVE THE MODEL UNDER A NEW NAME which could identify your country (you should not proceed without changing the name)  While working with your model, SAVE IT FREQUENTLY in order not to lose your work and SAVE THE MODEL UNDER A NEW NAME every time you’ve made major changes Slide 2

3. Step 2  2.1: - Get familiar with the structure and the contents of the model - Browse through the model to obtain an overview of all Sheets - Open each Sheet, one after the other, to see what each Sheet contains  2.2: - Set up your own title sheet (Sheet 1, called ‘Title’) - As and when necessary, overwrite the label with the new title - -- appropriate to your country - Wherever the date appears as a label in this Sheet, change it to the appropriate date (the date on which you are creating your new scenario)  2.3: - List the objectives and the targets - On the first page of the sub-sector model sheet, list the objectives and the targets to identify your model Slide 3

4. Step 3   Enter Baseline Data in the appropriate tables - Replace the data of the existing draft model with correct data - It is essential that the data for the base year are consistent - Baseline data are statistical data YELLOW cells - These data are entered in the YELLOW cells for the base year, and the figures appear in BLUE - If the results of model calculations for the base year show inconsistencies, it means that some of your baseline data are not accurate - If this is the case, you have to go back to the data source and check the data - However, the principal purpose of the baseline data is to provide the starting point for your projections and not to correct data of the past Slide 4

5. Step 4  4.1: Enter the Targets - Enter the targets in the appropriate tables  replace the target figures of the existing draft model with those of your own - In the model Sheets the targets are entered in the double-line framed cells or columns - The figures appear in RED colour  4.2: Enter the assumptions - Replace the assumptions of draft model with your own - In the model Sheets the assumptions are also entered into the double-line framed cells or columns - The figures appear in RED colour also Slide 5 5432 95.0%

6. Step 5  Check the coherence of the baseline data, targets and assumptions Look at the Summary tables at the beginning of each Sheet to see whether your baseline data give coherent results If not, go back to the source of the baseline data and check the figures and enter new, correct figures in the Model Similarly, Look at the Summary tables at the beginning of each Sheet to check whether the targets and assumptions appear reasonable and coherent If not, go back to the sources of assumptions and targets, check and correct appropriately It is also important to review and check all assumptions and targets in the model before using the results In many cases, gender comparison sheet can also highlight whether assumptions and targets concerning access to education is coherent and appropriate Slide 6

7. Step 6  Enter base-line data, assumptions and targets for special recurrent and capital expenditure items and for administrative support targets and assumptions In the Sheet 4 – “ExpSumm” (Expenditure summary for all sub- sectors), enter these baseline data, the assumptions and the targets for the following items: Recurrent Expenditure for Education Support Facilities Capital Expenditure for Education Support Facilities Administrative Support Slide 7

8. Congratulation  You have now successfully created your own provincial model, with your own baseline data, assumptions and targets!  The Model is now a “ PROVINCE SPECIFIC TEANPRO-Model ” and ready to serve for your provincial planning purposes  You can create alternative scenarios, which you may need for negotiation with the funding sources: Provincial Governor, Department of Finance, Planning, Donors, and etc… Slide 8

9. Slide 9 REMEMBER! EACH TIME you have finished working with a Sheet or a step, SAVE YOUR FILE !