1. 1 An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center Briefing for NWA, St. Cloud, MN March 9, 2010 Anthony Artusa Meteorologist, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov www.bipm.org/utils/common/img/earth_Blue_Marvel.jpg

2. 2 CPC Mission We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for time scales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. 2 “Short- term” Climate

3. 3 CPC Operational Activities   Monitoring Products   Assessment Products   Predict (Outlooks) How do we accelerate improvements in the above? Outreach and Feedback Partnerships Applied Research Transition Activities (R2O; O2R) Not H2O’s sibling !

4. 4 Climate Monitoring Products Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) – – Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere; stratospheric warming; Antarctic Ozone Hole) – – Storm Tracks and Blocking – – Monsoons – – Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) – – Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) – – Drought (US, North America; NIDIS) Note: There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to user community requests.

5. 5 Surface and subsurface ocean temperatures, precipitation and atmospheric circulation Weekly updates (PDF and.ppt) available on CPC’s ENSO page. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) & changes in the Walker Circulation C Proxy for convection ** ENSO is a major component of seasonal forecasting **

6. 6 Global Precipitation Monitoring CMORPH (CPC Morphing technique) is a high spatial and temporal resolution satellite-derived precipitation analysis. It is derived exclusively from satellite microwave observations. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/cmorph_description.html

7. 7 Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC NCDC Outside Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning NewspapersTV Stations Government officials Public

8. 8 Climate Assessment Products   Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)   ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)   Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)   Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)   Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)   Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)   Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection Note: These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How should we expand and improve the current suite of products to do this?

9. 9 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (State of Tropical Pacific) Monthly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and Outlook… “El Nino is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.”

10. 10 ENSO-Related Global Temperature/Precipitation

11. Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Briefings & Weather Summaries Morning (US) & afternoon (International) Wx summary Weekly briefing on global weather and crop conditions Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights Future plans include International Desk which includes JAWF World Food Crisis adds a sense of urgency to JAWF activities USDA – Commerce partnership on JAWF is a centerpiece of NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service 8

12. 12 Climate Prediction Products UV Index (updated daily) U.S. Hazards Assessments (issued Mon., adjusted Tue.-Fri.) 6-10 Day (pentad-2) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily, 3:30pm) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion & Outlook (El Niño, La Niña updated monthly, 1 st or 2 nd Thu. [5-11] of the month) Monthly Outlooks for Total Precipitation and Mean Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month; Updated at the end of the month) Seasonal Outlooks for Total Precipitation and Mean Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month) Drought Outlook (1 st and 3 rd Thu. of the month) Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in August.)

13. 13 U.S. Hazards Assessment Provides emergency managers, forecasters and the public advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events. Integrates existing NWS official medium (3-5 day), extended (6-10 day, week 2) and long-range (monthly and seasonal) forecasts and outlooks. Also: Severe T-Storms (but not specifically hail, tornadoes, or derechos) Blizzards & Ice Storms Hurricanes Large waves

14. Seasonal Drought Outlook Selected inputs: Current and predicted Soil Moisture Anomalies, 30- and 90-day CFS & CAS precipitation, ENSO composites, CPC extended & long-range precipitation outlooks, Palmer Drought Probabilities, Stream flows, Snow pack, ….

15. 15 Global Hazards Heavy rainfall & Tropical Cyclones (related to ENSO/MJO)

16. TERCILE BOUNDARIES 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% CLIM NOR B>N>A A>N>B ABV NOR BLW 33 37 33 31 53 13 53 13

17. 17 6-10 Day Outlook (8-14 day is similar) * MOST LIKELY CATEGORY * TemperaturePrecipitation N. Kentucky Below: 32% Near: 35% Above: 32% S. Nevada Below: 55% Near: 33% Above: 11% (with underlying normals)

18. 18 Seasonal Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation C. Washington Below: 11% Near: 33% Above: 55% S. Maine Below: 33% Near: 33% Above: 33%

19. 19 Climate Forecast System (CFS) ENSO Forecast Ensemble Approach OBS

20. 20 CFS Temperature/Precipitation

21. 21 4 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Otlks

22. 22 Applied Research Activities Climate diagnostics and attribution Prediction tool development / improvement Climate monitoring tool development / improvement Model diagnostics and evaluation Atmospheric and oceanic predictability Weather / Climate links Teleconnections Drought / floods and other extreme events

23. 23 Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

24. 24 Meeting Customer Needs Improve skill of sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks Make them more useable and easier to understand Expand products beyond averages to extremes Give more temporal and spatial detail.

25. 25 Users of CPC Products Energy generation & distribution Reservoir & water management Retail industry Agriculture Recreation Emergency managers NWS Weather Forecast Offices & federal agencies (USDA, USAID, FEMA, USGS, EPA, DOE, …) General public CPC Websites (Primary & Backup) Average Daily Hits January 2003 – February 2007

26. Summary CPC delivers a large suite of “operational” climate monitoring, assessment and prediction products CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services, and will play a central role in NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service. 15

27. 27 Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model, implemented Aug 04 Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products Increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2008) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool). ( 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) 8 Improvements due in large part to the CFS & CON tools

28. For those brutal headaches that only a severe storm chaser can get….. Five out of six meteorologists recommend extra-strength …….. (drum roll, please!)

29. “ANVIL” ! Proven to be reliable in most storm-chasing situations! rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect14/ISS016-E-27426_lrg.jpgClip Art