1. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-9: Statistical Downscaling Techniques March, 2013 Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

2. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Topics Approach of downscaling Techniques of downscaling Strength and weakness Statistical downscaling using SDSM

3. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam General Approach to Downscaling Applicable to: Sub-grid scales (small islands, point processes) Complex/ heterogeneous environments Extreme events Exotic predictands Transient change/ ensembles

4. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

5. Types of downscaling Dynamical climate modelling Synoptic weather typing Stochastic weather generation Transfer-function approaches

6. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Dynamic downscaling Dynamical downscaling involves the nesting of a higher resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) within a coarser resolution GCM. The RCM uses the GCM to define time– varying atmospheric boundary conditions around a finite domain, within which the physical dynamics of the atmosphere are modelled using horizontal grid spacings of 20–50 km.

7. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Limitations of RCM The main limitation of RCMs is that they are as computationally demanding as GCMs (placing constraints on the feasible domain size, number of experiments and duration of simulations). The scenarios produced by RCMs are also sensitive to the choice of boundary conditions (such as soil moisture) used to initiate experiments

8. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Advantages of RCM The main advantage of RCMs is that they can resolve smaller–scale atmospheric features such as orographic precipitation or low–level jets better than the host GCM. Furthermore, RCMs can be used to explore the relative significance of different external forcings such as terrestrial–ecosystem or atmospheric chemistry changes.

9. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Regional Climate Model Limited area regional models require meteorological information at their edges (lateral boundaries) These data provide the interface between the regional model’s domain and the rest of the world The climate of a region is always strongly influenced by the global situation These data are necessarily provided by global general circulation models (GCMs) or from observed datasets with global coverage

10. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

11. Weather classification: LWT scheme to condition daily rainfall

12. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Weather typing Weather typing approaches involve grouping local, meteorological data in relation to prevailing patterns of atmospheric circulation. Climate change scenarios are constructed, either by re–sampling from the observed data distributions (conditional on the circulation patterns produced by a GCM), or by generating synthetic sequences of weather patterns and then re–sampling from observed data.

13. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Weather pattern downscaling is founded on sensible linkages between climate on the large scale and weather at the local scale. The technique is also valid for a wide variety of environmental variables as well as multi–site applications. However, weather typing schemes ca be parochial, a poor basis for downscaling rare events, and entirely dependent on stationary circulation–to–surface climate relationships.

14. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Limitation of Weather typing Potentially, the most serious limitation is that precipitation changes produced by changes in the frequency of weather patterns are seldom consistent with the changes produced by the host GCM (unless additional predictors such as atmospheric humidity are employed)

15. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Stochastic weather generators Stochastic downscaling approaches typically involve modifying the parameters of conventional weather generators such as WGEN, LARS–WG or EARWIG. The WGEN model simulates precipitation occurrence. Furthermore, stochastic weather generators enable the efficient production of large ensembles of scenarios for risk analysis.

16. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Weather generator WGEN model simulates precipitation occurrence using two–state, first order Markov chains: precipitation amounts on wet days using a gamma distribution; temperature and radiation components using first–order trivariate autoregression that is conditional on precipitation occurrence.

17. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

20. Advantages of weather generator Climate change scenarios are generated stochastically using revised parameter sets scaled in line with the outputs from a host GCM. The main advantage of the technique is that it can exactly reproduce many observed climate statistics and has been widely used, particularly for agricultural impact assessment.

21. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Limitations weather generator The key disadvantages relate to the low skill at reproducing inter-annual to decadal climate variability, and to the unanticipated effects that changes to precipitation occurrence may have on secondary variables such as temperature.

22. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Transfer functions Transfer-function downscaling methods rely on empirical relationships between local scale predictands and regional scale predictor(s). Individual downscaling schemes differ according to the choice of mathematical transfer function, predictor variables or statistical fitting procedure.

23. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

24. Types of transfer functions To date, linear and non–linear regression, artificial neural networks, canonical correlation and principal components analyses have all been used to derive predictor–predictand relationships.

25. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Strength and weakness of transfer function The main strength of transfer function downscaling is the relative ease of application, coupled with their use of observable trans–scale relationships. The main weakness is that the models often explain only a fraction of the observed climate variability (especially in precipitation series).

26. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam SDSM Developed by Loughborogh university, UK www.sdsm.org.uk Data can be downloaded from Canadian Climate Change Scenario network (CCSN) http://www.cccsn.ca/?page=dst-sdi SDSM is best described as a hybrid of the stochastic weather generator and transfer function methods.

27. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam SDSM- Statistical Downscaling Model

28. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam SDSM Algorithm Optimisation Algorithm: SDSM 4.2 provides two means of optimising the model – Dual Simplex (as in earlier versions of SDSM) and Ordinary Least Squares. Although both approaches give comparable results, ordinary Least Squares is much faster.

29. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam The User can also select a Stepwise Regression model by ticking the appropriate box. Stepwise regression: works by progressively adding all parameters into the model and selecting the model which models the predictand most strongly according to one of two criteria: either AIC(Akaike information criterion) or BIC(Bayesian information criterion).

30. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam The Akaike information criterion is a measure of the relative goodness of fit of a statistical model. In statistics, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) or Schwarz criterion (also SBC, SBIC) is a criterion for model selection among a finite set of models. When fitting models, it is possible to increase the likelihood by adding parameters, but doing so may result in overfitting. The BIC resolves this problem by introducing a penalty term for the number of parameters in the model. The penalty term is larger in BIC than in AIC.

31. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Patuakhali Tmin(1961-2001): Predictor variablePartial r Ncepmslpas (mean sea level pressure) 0.763 ncepp500as (500 hpa geopotential height) 0.308 ncepp850as (850 hpa geopotential height) 0.61 ncepr850as (relative humidity at 850 hpa) 0.383 Mean E%34.2 Mean SE1.461

32. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam