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MODELS AND METHODS for assessment of interactions in a city-region system Penenko Vladimir Tsvetova Elena.

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Presentation on theme: "MODELS AND METHODS for assessment of interactions in a city-region system Penenko Vladimir Tsvetova Elena."— Presentation transcript:

1 MODELS AND METHODS for assessment of interactions in a city-region system Penenko Vladimir Tsvetova Elena

2 1. Assessment of mutual risks and unintended pollutants exchange between the cities of the Siberian Federal District. 2. Observability studies for monitoring system situated in the Siberian cites ( SibAeroNet). Connection with risk domains (jointly with Institute of atmospheric optics SD RAS) 3. Tracing of long-distance transport of biological aerosols. Combination of Eulerian and Lagrangean approaches, forward and inverse modeling ( jointly with Federal Center «Vector» and IOA SD RAS) 4. Revealing of peculiarities of mesoclimates in Siberian cities ( Novosibirsk as an example) 5. Atmospheric chemistry ( jointly with the Institute of chemical kinetics and combustion SD RAS) Interdisiplinary project of SD RAS “Ecological problems of Siberian cites” Modeling aspects

3 Models Hydrodynamics and transport of pollutants: global scale regional scale meso and city scale. Atmospheric chemistry: methane & sulfur & nitrogen cycle + acetaldehyde cycle Data assimilation system

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8 Basic form for advective-diffusive operators

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10 Algorithms of sensitivity theory

11 Data assimilation algorithms: Minimizing joint uncertainties of models, measurements and data 4D-var global in time ( iterative); Direct 4D-var adaptive with adjoint problem, step by step; Direct 4D-var adaptive fast data assimilation (direct minimization of cost functional with respect to state function)

12 Risk functions Fragment of scenario

13 Risk functions

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17 Assessment of informativity of the monitoring system “SibAeroNet” with the help of numerical modeling Tomsk Tory Mondy Ussuriisk Yakutsk Ekaterinburg Khanti-Mansiisk Ulan-Ude Krasnoyarsk

18 EkaterinburgYakutskKhanti-Mansiisk KrasnoyarskMondyTomsk Tori Ulan-Ude Ussuriisk

19 Joint estimation of observability domains and informativity measures for monotoring system AeroSibNet Period of 1-14 June 2002

20 Assessment of AeroSibNet informativity for revealing potentially dangerous sources of pollutants Significance level > 0.001 Significance level > 0.0001 Conclusion: AeroSibNet system in the combination with inverse modeling set can be used for revealing the sources of specific pollutants

21 Analysis of receptor-source interaction Risk function for Novosibirsk region demonstrates the domain of potentially dangerous pollutant sources Receptor near Novosibirsk

22 Novosibirsk Tracing of long-distance transport of biological aerosols

23 Mathematical modeling of atmospheric circulation and transport of pollutants in the Novosibirsk region

24 The Novosibirsk industrial region Temperature and circulation

25 The Novosibirsk industrial region

26 Conclusion The theoretical background and some elements of computational technology are developed for studies of interaction in the region-city system in direct and feedback regimes. The construction of modeling tools are based on the variational principles in the combination with splitting technique and sensitivity theory

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