1. Turning analysis into adaptation What are the research priorities? Rohan Nelson Resource Economist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems with Steven Crimp, Mike Dunlop, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & many other colleagues Climate Adaptation Flagship

2. …creating cognitive dissonance …changing how you see the world

3. Outline Climate change in Tasmania …the science Analysis paralysis …and the science-policy relevance gap How did we get into this mess? …alternative modes of science-policy engagement Closing the policy relevance gap …and empowering rural communities

4. Trend in Tasmania temperature and rainfall Temperature 1970 – 2008 Rainfall 1970-2008 Source: www.bom.gov.au

5. SummerWinter AutumnSpring Tasmania’s rainfall declining (1970-2007)

6. Tasmanian warming accelerating… 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 1910192019301940195019601970198019902000 Temperature (C) 1910-2007 +0.08 o C/decade 1990-2007 +0.31 o C/decade 1950-2007 +0.11 o C/decade 2030 Source: www.bom.gov.au Mean annual temperatures

7. CO 2 emissions exceed all SRES (2000) scenarios 2006 2005 2007 SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed 2000-2007 3.5% Raupach et al., Canadell et al (2007)

8. Uncertainty across models & scenarios Models Emissions scenarios Projected change to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

9. Tasmania likely to get warmer (av across models) 0.6 to 1 o C warmer by 2030. Warmer in summer & autumn http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Projected change (av. across models) to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999

10. Tasmania likely to get warmer (av across models) 2% less rainfall by 2030 Less in summer & spring http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Projected change (av. across models) to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999

11. Are we causing it?

12. Outline Climate change in Tasmania …the science Analysis paralysis …and the science-policy relevance gap Closing the policy relevance gap …and empowering rural communities

13. The problem – in philosophical terms Humanity is suffering from a massive, institutionalized philosophical blunder. The pursuit of scientific knowledge dissociated from the more fundamental tackling of problems of living is, as we have seen, a recipe for disaster… …If academic inquiry were to help promote human welfare rationally, then at the very least, it would give intellectual priority to the tasks of: (1)articulating and clarifying problems of living; and (2) proposing and critically assessing possible solutions – possible and actual actions. Nicholas Maxwell, Emeritus Reader in the Philosophy of Science University College London Philosophy Now, vol 65, January/February 2008, pg12

14. Estimated $25-30M per year. Adaptation likely less than $10M. Typical Budget Allocation – USCCSP NRC 2007 NRC. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. National Academies Press, Washington, DC. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11292http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11292

15. The US problem (last 20 years) Source: Back of the envelope estimate $200 million $22 billion

16. The Australian problem ($ per year) Source: Back of the envelope estimate – proportions are similar for Australia $2 million $25 million

17. 1) Impacts Rainfall, temperature, species distributions, etc 5) Community/industry adaptation Scenario analysis Policy/decision options Translating impacts into vulnerability assessment Policy/decision relevance gap

18. The right answer to the wrong question…. The problem in practical terms The types of knowledge we have been emphasizing for the past decade or so, despite their significant scientific value, are not those we will most need in dealing with the challenge of climate change. It’s as if the National Institute of Health focused its research on making better projections of when people will die, rather than seeking practical ways to increase health and life expectancy. Pielke and Sarewitz (2003 ) Wanted: Scientific Leadership on Climate Issues in Science & Technology p.28

19. Risk management meets uncertainty http://www.pritchettcartoons.com/ The problem of focusing on what we can measure…

20. Analysis paralysis and limits to prediction Uncertain … & likely to stay that way for the conceivable future…

21. Vulnerability High Medium Low High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Integrated assessment of vulnerability Adaptive capacity Exposure ? Rainfall variability

22. The challenge of uncertainty Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Aspirations of rural households Adoption of specific practices Generic capacity to adapt Adaptive capacity Response to specific drivers Degree of uncertainty of threat Uncertain future challenges Scale National, State Local/household

23. How will we respond to this challenge?

24. Outline Climate change in Tasmania …the science Analysis paralysis …and the science-policy relevance gap How did we get into this mess? …alternative modes of science-policy engagement Closing the policy relevance gap …and empowering rural communities

25. Alternative model of science/policy engagement Self-interest & non-cooperation Centralised, reductionist knowledge Positivism Logical empiricism Tragedy of the commons Experimental economics Self-organised community NRM Integrated science & local knowledge Altruism & cooperation derived from Ostrom 1990 & 1999; Dietz et al. 2003; Brunner & Steelman 2005 Centralised expert management Adaptive governance

26. Centralised expert management Policy goals predefined Standard methods are chosen & applied by experts across all contexts Experts allocate resources informed by reductionist science Communities asked to comment on expert solution Policy implemented centrally across large areas Policy adaptation avoided, difficult, with conflict Goals simplified to fit methods National

27. Negotiate goal intersection, resolve conflict Integrate scientific & local knowledge Build on local communication & governance (allocation, sanctions, monitoring, etc) Policy trialled in local contexts Transfer learning across local contexts Design local policy National & State Regional Local Adaptive governance …from Ostrom (1999)

28. Outline Climate change in Western Australia …the science Analysis paralysis …and the science-policy relevance gap Closing the policy relevance gap …and empowering rural communities

29. The challenge of uncertainty Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Aspirations of rural households Adoption of specific practices Generic capacity to adapt Adaptive capacity Response to specific drivers Degree of uncertainty of threat Uncertain future challenges Scale National, State Local/household

30. Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts, Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options Adaptive capacity & resilience …derived from Holling (1978)

31. Trade policy Adoption & adaptation National policy Agribusiness & NRM extension FieldFarmRegionNationalGlobal Regional & industry policy Sectors & trade Alternative management practices Enterprise mix Industry mix Livelihood options A nested model of adaptation [Adaptive governance to create a facilitating environment]

32. Trade policy Adoption & adaptation National policy Agribusiness & NRM extension FieldFarmRegionNationalGlobal Regional & industry policy GE models & Multi-agent IGM, etc Capacity to change management (Rogers +) Whole farm simulation & optimisation PE models & total livelihood productivity Rural livelihoods analysis …& nested methodologies…

33. Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts, Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options Adaptive capacity & resilience …derived from Holling (1978)

34. 1) Impacts Rainfall, temperature, species distributions, etc 4) Social Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity Socioeconomic livelihoods analysis 5) Community/industry adaptation Scenario analysis Policy/decision options Profitability, incomes, land use and regional economic impacts Bioeconomic, PE & GE models 3) Economic 2) Biophysical Agroecological models Crop/pasture growth Production models Water, energy, etc Ecology Biodiversity Policy/decision relevance gap Translating impacts into vulnerability assessment Coping strategies [Technical adaptation]

35. Transforming climate information Global climate models Crop & pasture models $ Bioeconomic models

36. Adaptation in wheat cropping More pastureMore residueMore fallow Source: Steve Crimp

37. Are we measuring what we can change? Exposure to climate change in 2030 Current exposure to climate variability Rainfall Pasture Farm incomes no data least moderate most

38. Regional impacts of climate change Heyhoe et al. 2007

39. 2020s 2050s 2080s Reduced in the tropics and sub-tropics due to warming and rainfall changes Source: IPCC 2001 Increased agricultural productivity in mid to high latitude regions due to warmer & wetter conditions Global agricultural productivity

40. Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts, Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options Adaptive capacity & resilience …derived from Holling (1978)

41. The challenge of uncertainty Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Aspirations of rural households Adoption of specific practices Generic capacity to adapt Adaptive capacity Response to specific drivers Degree of uncertainty of threat Uncertain future challenges Scale National, State Local/household

42. Livelihood platform Human Social Natural Physical Financial H’hold capacity Rural livelihoods & household capacity Livelihood strategies Resulting in Natural Resource based activities non -NR based activities Composed of Attributes of management practices Livelihood security Environ’l sustainability With effects on Aspirations Institutions Organisations Social relations Access modified by Shocks Trends In the context of Policy and other external influences Outcomes …from Ellis (2000) Capacity of rural households

43. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Human Social NaturalPhysical Financial Region 1 Region 2 Adaptive capacity & substitution …from Carney 1998 household property catchment region state country

44. (Nelson et al. 2007) Human Social Physical Financial Natural Adaptive Capacity

45. Human capital Operator education Spouse education Health – self assessed

46. Adaptive capacity of catchments Low Moderate High

47. Regionalising adaptive capacity measures 0 1 2 3 4 5 Human Social Natural Physical Financial

48. Self-assessed adaptive capacity Triggering collective action between communities & governments

49. Exposure to income risk Vulnerability to income risk High Medium Low High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Integrated analysis of vulnerability Priority setting Adaptive capacity

50. Codesign practical adaptation strategies Vulnerability, Adaptive capacity Resilience Data & methods Prioritising action Participatory monitoring & evaluation Human Social Natural Physical Financial

51. Inducing action, not just analysis http://www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship.html

52. Adaptation/mitigation see saw High mitigation now Low mitigation now Higher impacts and adaptation later Lower impacts and adaptation later Building the capacity to manage our existing climate variability is likely to be a good start