1. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 The Role of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind (OSVW) Information in Mitigating Risk to Maritime Transportation Presented By Paul S Chang Presented By Paul S Chang

2. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 2 Requirement, Science Objective and Benefit Requirement Marine Transportation: –Support decisions in aviation, marine, and surface navigation –Research, develop, and deploy more accurate and timely information products Science Objective How can data from space based scatterometers support and improve NWS wind warning and forecasting products? Benefit Minimize risk to cargo and passenger vessels from exposure to hazardous wind and wave conditions by providing the highest quality operational OSVW products

3. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 3 Challenges and Path Forward Science challenges –Develop new techniques and methodologies to improve scatterometer OSVW retrievals. Next steps –Near coast ASCAT wind product –Transitioning new STAR ASCAT product from research to operations –Pursue research and development of operational products from other international scatterometer missions (OceanSat-2, HY-2, GCOM-W) Transition Path –Experimental scatterometer OSVW products will be validated and transitioned to operations as appropriate via SPSRB process in support of marine weather forecasting and warning

4. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 4 Project Team Zorana Jelenak – Project Lead, Project Scientist UCAR Paul Chang – Ocean Winds Team Lead (STAR) Seubson Soisuvarn – Scientist, UCAR Khalil Ahmad – Scientist, Perot Systems and Joseph Sienkiewicz – NWS, Ocean Prediction Center Qi Zhu - Scientific Programmer, Perot Systems Micah Baker - Unix System Administrator, Perot Systems

5. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 5 QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data Impacts Marine Analysis and Forecasting in the Tropics More accurate analysis of key synoptic features at the surface Introduction of new features depicted on surface analysis Greatly improved detection, forecasts, and warnings of high impact events Improved verification Construction of climatologies

6. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 6 6 QuikSCAT OSVW data impacted: 10 % of Warning decisions (wind speed only, 2004 OPC survey) Surface Analyses (full vector winds) Impact to 50 to 68% of features on surface analyses Fronts Lows Highs Wind areas Due to reliability and consistency of QuikSCAT wind data new warning category for Hurricane Force winds introduced by NWS in 2000 Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data Impacts Marine Analysis and Forecasting at Ocean Prediction Center 2 nd OSI SAF Workshop, Perros- Guirec, France 15-17 Mar 2005

7. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 7 Hurricane Force Winds Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones – Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT 2000-2009 QuikSCAT wind observation reveal that Hurricane Force Winds in winter ocean storm occur much more often than initially thought. These storms impose costs on maritime commerce transiting the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans by delaying and sometimes damaging vessels, or causing loss of cargo. A significant fraction of this risk can be avoided with ocean surface vector wind observations and forecasts.

8. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 8 Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007 Major Shipping Routes North Atlantic 4,000/yr container transits 1,000/yr bulkers Extreme winter ocean storms occur over major shipping routes: North Atlantic example The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the North Atlantic basin 2001 - 2008

9. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 9 Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007 Major Shipping Routes North Pacific 6,000/yr container 1,500/yr bulker Extreme winter ocean storms occur over major shipping routes: North Pacific example The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the North Pacifi basin 2001 - 2008

10. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 10 Economic Impact of QuikSCAT wind data on Maritime Commerce Present level of warning/forecast services to 48 hours with QuikSCAT results in: –$135 million per year savings in reduced damage / cargo loss for container and bulk commerce (Kite- Powell, 2008) * Second study near shore/coastal impacts underway

11. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 11 New STAR ASCAT high wind product to help mitigate loss of QuikSCAT. Current operational ASCAT wind product underestimates high wind New STAR developed ASCAT high wind product * H. Kite-Powell 2008 QuikSCAT information and associated forecasts enabled a reduction in annual exposure for shipping traffic in the North Atlantic and North Pacific of about 44%.

12. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 12 STAR ASCAT Wind Product Improvements: North Pacific Extratropical Storm Example QuikSCAT data reveals area of HURRICANE force winds Operational ASCAT wind product detects only GALE force wind. Two wind warning categories lower than the actual winds. New STAR ASCAT wind product detects STORM force wind. One warning category lower

13. Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 13 Challenges and Path Forward Science challenges –Develop new techniques and methodologies to improve scatterometer OSVW retrievals. Next steps –Near coast ASCAT wind product –Transitioning new STAR ASCAT product from research to operations –Pursue research and development of operational products from other international scatterometer missions (OceanSat-2, HY-2, GCOM-W) Transition Path –Experimental scatterometer OSVW products will be validated and transitioned to operations as appropriate via SPSRB process in support of marine weather forecasting and warning