1. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics INCA-CE ─ A Central European Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans-national Level 39 th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication Oklahoma City, OK, 22-24 June 2011 Alexander Kann Ingo Meirold-Mautner Benedikt Bica Yong Wang This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF INCA Central Europe Integrated nowcasting for the Central European area

2. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Outline  The Central Europe (CE) Programme, co-financed by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund)  INCA-CE: Integrated Nowcasting for the Central European area -Partnership -Objectives  The INCA system Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis  INCA Applications  Recent research on INCA

3. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics The Central Europe Programme 8 EU countries 1 third country Surface: Around 1.050.000 km² Population: Around 148 million citizens 7 (and more) languages 4 Programme Priorities:  Innovation  Accessibility  Environment  Competitiveness and attractiveness of cities and regions © JTS, www.central2013.eu

4. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics INCA-CE: Some benchmarks 16 partners from 8 CE countries Weather services Research institutions National and local authorities Project budget: 3.3 million € (4.7 million US$) 80% of overall budget is covered by EU Project duration: Apr 2010 – Sep 2013 http://www.inca-ce.eu

5. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Objectives  Reducing impact of weather-related natural disasters (e.g. windstorms, flooding, icing) by establishing a warn-on-forecast system.  Improvement of risk management standards and methodology in order to enable management authorities to issue more detailed assessments and warnings.  More precise estimation of weather-related risks and potential hazards in the private sector.  Improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather warnings. Output A web-based, trans-national weather information system using a state-of-the-art nowcasting method Output A web-based, trans-national weather information system using a state-of-the-art nowcasting method Crisis management und risk prevention Operational hydrology Civil protection Road management INCA

6. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics The INCA Nowcasting system  Automated analyses and very-short range forecasts (first 12 hours) at very high resolution (1 km) -Operational flash flood forecasting and warning -Additional forecasting tool in weather warnings -Automated forecasts for road maintenance, power generation, … Standard domain Region: Eastern Alps Domain size: 600 x 350 km Elevation range: 100 - 4000 m Resolution: horizontal: 1km, vertical: 125 - 200 m, time: 15 min - 1 h

7. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics The INCA Nowcasting system → Analyses → Nowcasts → Forecasts ALADIN limited area model INCA System Hydrological Services Hydrological Forecasting System ObservationsRadar data Satellite data High resolution topographic data ECMWF, Reading ECMWF global model Products, Warnings, Applications... NWPOBS RADAR SAT TOPO Météo France, Toulouse ARPEGE global model

8. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics 2-D Analyses und Forecasts Precipitation Precipitation type Cloudiness Global radiation 3-D Analyses und Forecasts Temperature Humidity Wind INCA Variables 2-D Convective Analyses Fields CAPE CIN LCL LFC Instability Indices (LI, Showalter,..) Trigger-Temperature-Deficit Equivalent Potential Temperature Moisture convergence Mass convergence Other derived 2-D Fields Snowfall line Icing potential Wind chill

9. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Some sample INCA fields T e MOCON ff, dd

10. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics INCA Application in Austria Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public Gust monitor Lake Neusiedl Severe weather warnings http://www.interchalet.com

11. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics INCA precipitation analysis 20090723  Station measurements are interpolated onto INCA grid by inverse distance weighting  Radar field is scaled with climatology and latest surface observations  Combination of these two fields in order to reproduce station measurements and keep structures of radar field in-between  The better the radar view, the more weight its structures receive, and vice versa  Consideration of elevation effects during interpolation

12. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Mountain precipitation Valley precipitation Problem: unreasonably high values for strong precipitation events Constant amplification factor Valley precipitation Mountain precipitation Problem: unreasonably low values for strong precipitation events Dependence on intensity Recent research on INCA Parameterization of elevation effects

13. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Corresponds to the physics of orographic precipitation (seeder-feeder) process Valley precipitation Mountain precipitation Limited by droplet growth Limited by condensation rate multiplicative additive Improved dependence on intensity Haiden and Pistotnik, 2009 Parameterization of elevation effects

14. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Effects of elevation dependence in INCA No elevation dependence Elevation dependence

15. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Comparison of modeled and observed runoffs MAE reduction: - 61.5 % No elevation dependence used Elevation dependence Red bold line: Median of simulation errors at all gauges

16. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Verification INCA Temperature Error reduction due to station observations Error reduction due to improved downscaling INCA (dashed lines) and ALADIN (solid lines) mean absolute forecast errors (MAE) of temperature, averaged over all stations, for July 2009 (grey) and January 2010 (black).

17. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics MAE Winter 2008/2009MAE Summer 2009 Error reduction due to Nowcasting Verification INCA Precipitation

18. Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics 10 th EMS / 8 th ECAC 13 – 17 Sept, Zürich, Switzerland Thank you for your attention ! http://www.inca-ce.eu Haiden, T., A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica and C. Gruber, 2011: The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region. Weather and Forecasting, 26/2, pp. 166-183.