1. GOES Sounder Hyper-spectral Environmental Suite (HES) Data from the HES will revolutionize short-term weather forecasting Impact on short-term weather forecasting will be comparable to inception of WSR-88D network The goal of this presentation is to justify why these two statements are true.

2. Comparison: HES versus current GOES sounder

3. VERTICAL SAMPLING FOR GOESR_HES FWD SKEWT 6 KM5 KM4 KM 3 KM2 KM1 KMGOES

5. Simulated CAPE HES loop - Severe Weather event - 8 May 2003

6. Simulated CIN HES loop - Severe Weather event - 8 May 2003

7. Using the CAPE and CIN fields from the HES, a forecaster can: Assess different air masses (unstable / stable) much more easily with the improved temporal / spatial resolution. Notice indications of convective initiation BEFORE the towering cumulus stage detectable on visible imagery. Provide a much better assessment of cap strength in answering the question “where will the cap break”? Observe regions that have been stabilized by storms, and help identify outflow boundaries more readily.

8. What about cloud obscuration preventing the retrievals? 50 km 10 km 30 km 4 km

9. The HES will result in a much improved: 3 dimensional “view” of temperature and moisture profile of the atmosphere. Operational derived products (i.e. winds). Climatology to better understand thresholds for various fields (i.e., anomaly fields). Initial analysis for NWP models. Fire weather forecast. Dispersion nowcasting / modeling (volcanic ash, pollutants, hazardous materials etc.)

10. Weather Forecasting Improvements Winter weather: Pre-storm environment Cyclogenesis Magnitude of moisture / temperature profiles in the vicinity of extra-tropical cyclones Rapid intensification of extra-tropical cyclones Lake-effect snow Temperature / wind chill (assuming no clouds) Clear air turbulence / Icing

11. Weather Forecasting Improvements Severe weather: Assessing the magntiude, depth and advection of moisture. Temperature information yields cap strength (inversion characteristics), lapse rates, magnitude of instability. 5 minute temporal resolution soundings would be well suited to convective forecasting, where signficant changes occur on short time scales.

12. Weather Forecasting Improvements Tropical weather: Track forecast improvements through better feature track winds Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity monitoring via eye soundings in relatively cloud-free eyes (MSLP) Improved temporal and spatial monitoring of environmental stability, and moisture Better understanding/monitoring of rapid intensification events Improved data assimilation potential for advanced modeling efforts leading to improved analyses and forecasts Improved genesis/formation monitoring and prediction Improved intensity diagnosis and prediction Improved structure diagnosis and prediction

13. Credits CIRA: Dan Bikos Louie Grasso Mark DeMaria John Knaff Jeff Braun Dan Lindsey CIMSS: Justin Sieglaff