1. GEOS-CHEM global model of tropospheric chemistry (www-as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/geos) assimilated meteorological data from NASA DAO, 1988-2001 1 o x1 o - 4 o x5 o horizontal resolution, 20-48 layers in vertical used by groups at Harvard, Duke, U. Washington, Rutgers, JPL, BNL, EPFL, Toulouse, Aquila; standard versions and benchmarks maintained at Harvard RECENT AND CURRENT APPLICATIONS: –Tropospheric ozone : global budget, Asian outflow, U.S. air quality, Middle East, transatlantic transport, tropics (TOMS), interannual variability, trends –Carbon monoxide: global and regional budgets, interannual variability –Aerosols: sulfate-organics-dust-sea salt, phase transitions –Stratospheric ozone: coupling with troposphere –Carbon dioxide: source/sink information from correlations with chemical tracers –Organics: hydrocarbons, oxygenated organics, nitriles, methyl halides –Satellite retrievals, inversions, chemical data assimilation: CO, CO 2, ozone, formaldehyde, NO 2 –Chemical forecasting: TRACE-P

2. GEOS-CHEM CHEMICAL FORECASTING IN TRACE-P (Feb 22 – Apr 10, 2001) 5-day GEOS-3 forecast fields from DAO (2 o x2.5 o, 2x/day) and daily assimilated fields (1 o x1 o ) were used to drive off-line CO simulation Forecasting system (“TRAPS”) was fully automated: 1.GEOS data download and processing 2.Update of initial CO fields by GEOS-CHEM using assimilated GEOS fields 3.4-day CO forecast simulation 4.Posting of 3-D CO fields, movies, maps on ftp site Reliability of forecasting system was ~100% DAY -1 0 1 2 0Z: start of forecast 14Z: forecast available from DAO 16Z: GEOS-CHEM forecast product sent to TRACE-P team GEOS-CHEM update of CO initial condions using assimilated GEOS fields GEOS-CHEM forecast

3. TRACE-P EXECUTION Emissions -Fossil fuel -Biomass burning -Biosphere, dust Long-range transport from Europe, N. America, Africa ASIA PACIFIC P-3 Satellite data in near-real time: MOPITT TOMS SEAWIFS AVHRR LIS DC-8 3D chemical model forecasts: - ECHAM - GEOS-CHEM - CFORS - Meso-NH -LaRC/U. Wisconsin FLIGHT PLANNING Boundary layer chemical/aerosol processing ASIAN OUTFLOW Stratospheric intrusions PACIFIC

4. FRONTAL OUTFLOW OF CO DURING TRACE-P DC-8 Hong Kong local 1, March 7 Observed (G.W. Sachse, NASA/LaRC) GEOS-CHEM forecast (Harvard) Lifting ahead of front Boundary layer outflow behind front Cold front

5. SIMULATED vs. OBSERVED CO IN TRACE-P: bias and R 2 vs. altitude (5000 aircraft observations) ALTITUDE, km Mean model/observed CO (bias)R 2 in 1-km bins Mat Evans, Harvard

6. DISPLACEMENT ERRORSMEARING ERROR Errors in GEOS-CHEM forecasts during TRACE-P (Isabelle Bey, EPFL) How reliable were the CO forecasts during TRACE-P? What errors should be applied in the interpretation of these forecasts? Examine r 2 statistics for forecasts vs. observations Forecast altitude upward displacement downward displacement Increasing vertical smearing

7. PROPOSED Harvard/UW CHEMICAL FORECAST SUPPORT FOR NOAA 2K2 Operate TRAPS system as in TRACE-P with GEOS-3 meteorological forecasts from NASA/DAO driving a global GEOS-CHEM simulation off-line Spatial resolution of forecasts: 2 o x2.5 o, 48 vertical levels Frequency of forecasts: 1x/day for entire mission Species to be forecast: at least Asian and N. American CO, others to be discussed Personnel –At DAO: Gi-Kong Kim, Rob Lucchesi –At Harvard: Bob Yantosca, Qinbin Li, Daniel Jacob –In the field: Lyatt Jaeglé, Qinbin Li