1. Casualty Actuarial Society Hurricane Landfall Probabilities from Proxy Data David Malmquist Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.

2. Preview Risk Prediction Initiative Need for Proxies Proxy Methods and Results Future Directions

3. The Goal of the RPI To create links between the climate science and insurance communities so that the science of climate forecasting is available, understandable, and usable by insurers

4. RPI Information Flow Risk Prediction Initiative INSURERS Commercial Risk Modelers AcademiaGovernment

5. RPI Corporate Sponsors X.L. Mid Ocean Re General Re Renaissance Re ACE Limited Centre Solutions Employers Re AIG/IPC Re

6. RPI Activities Facilitate working groups Fund novel research Develop and distribute research products

7. Catastrophe Risk Model landfall probability maximum sustained winds peak wind gust radius of maximum winds forward speed and direction decay rate latitude longitude elevation topography construction type surrounding structures physical damage repair costs Damage terms of coverage Insured Loss Hazard

8. RPI Activities Facilitate working groups  Fund novel research  extend historical records via proxies –improve hurricane forecasts –climate variability –wind-field dynamics –develop public models Develop and distribute research products

9. 1234512345 ≥ 28.94 28.5-28.9 27.9-28.4 27.2-27.8 < 27.17 74-95 96-110 111-130 131-155 > 155 4-5 6-8 9-12 13-18 > 18 Minimal Moderate Extensive Extreme Catastrophic Saffir/Simpson Scale Pressure (inches) Wind (mph) Surge (ft) Damage

10. US Tropical Cyclone Damage (1925-1995) Pielke & Landsea, 1997 $ = Millions of 1995 US dollars

11. 190019901950 Tropical Cyclone Observation NOAA, 1993 Satellites Land observations Ship logs Aircraft reconnaissance

12. Intense US Landfalls (1899-1996) 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 data from NOAA

13. Cat 5 US Landfalls (1899-1996) data from NOAA 0 1 2 3 1900 191019201930194019501960197019801990

14. Extend Historical Records Via Proxies RPI Funded Research

15. Hurricane Proxies: Storm Surge Barrier Island Sand Mud OceanLake

16. from K.-B. Liu

17. sand layers 0 100 200 300 400 500 Depth (cm) Lake Shelby, Alabama Lake Shelby, Alabama 3.2-3.0, 2.6, 2.2, 1.4, 0.8 ka 3.2-3.0, 2.6, 2.2, 1.4, 0.8 ka ~ 600 year return period ~ 600 year return period Category 4 or 5 Category 4 or 5 Lake Core Analysis data from K.-b. Liu

18. A Climate Diagnostic Proxy: Oxygen Isotopes Mean Sea Water H 2 16 O > 99.7% H 2 18 O ~ 0.2%

19. Texas Summer Precipitation Lawrence & Gedzelman, 1996 -151-3-5-7-9-11-13 Rainfall Events Oxygen Isotope Values 1985-92 n = 208 Summer Rain Tropical Cyclones

20. - 9.35‰ - 2.93‰ Proxy Tape Recorder  18 O Time -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

21. Growth of Cave Deposits stalactite stalagmite column H 2 O + CO 2 + CaCO 3 Ca ++ + 2HCO 3 - dissolution precipitation

22. Stalagmite Cross-Section  18 O  Fidelity Sampling Interval

23. Tree Growth

24. Suppressed vs. Released Rings

25. What are the Potential Proxy Signals? Within-tree differences in ring width Between-tree differences in ring width –local (cohort) –regional (intersite) Isotopic Signals

26. Hurricane Camille (1969) Louisiana Mississippi Pass Christian Slidell

27. Single -Tree Analysis Hurricane Wind

28. Single -Tree Analysis 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Standardized Ratio Doyle & Gorham, 1996 Hurricane Camille 19501960197019801990

29. Cohort Analysis Hurricane Wind A AB B

30. Cohort Analysis 65432106543210 Growth Ratio Doyle & Gorham, 1996 19501960197019801990 Hurricane Camille

31. Inter-Site Analysis LAMS LA MS

32. Inter-Site Analysis 7654321076543210 Growth Ratio Doyle & Gorham, 1996 19501960197019801990 Hurricane Camille

33. Hurricane Proxies: U.S. Geography Lake cores Tree-rings Caves

34. Facilitate working groups Fund novel research Develop and distribute research products http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/