1. Sea Level Changes: Implications for the Coast RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato

2. Major sources of uncertainty: GHG emission rates (socio-economic and technological uncertainty)GHG emission rates (socio-economic and technological uncertainty) Climate sensitivity (scientific modelling uncertainties)Climate sensitivity (scientific modelling uncertainties) Land ice response (additional uncertainty for sea level change) FUTURE WARMING and SEA LEVEL RISE – how much ?

3. Average of models, All emission scenarios Temperature Change (deg.C) Global Temperature Change (IPCC, 2001) Future Projections

4. Average of models, All emission scenarios All models, All emission scenarios Temperature Change (deg.C) Global Temperature Change 1.4 o C lowest scenario, low sensitivity 5.8 o C highest scenario, high sensitivity (IPCC, 2001) Future Projections

5. Global Sea-level Rise (IPCC, 2001) Average of models, All emission scenarios All models, All emission scenarios Sea-level Rise (metres) All models, All emission scenarios, Land- ice uncertainty Future Projections

6. 8 cm lowest scenario, low sensitivity, low land-ice 88 cm highest scenario, high sensitivity, high land-ice Global Sea-level Rise (IPCC, 2001) Average of models, All emission scenarios All models, All emission scenarios Sea-level Rise (metres) All models, All emission scenarios, Land- ice uncertainty Future Projections

7. Aspects of future change that are important for the coast Sea level Sea-surface temperature Rainfall amounts, intensity Changes in ENSO Storm frequency and intensity Storm surge risks Wind and wave regimes WARNING!!: PREDICTIONS OF REGIONAL- SCALE CHANGES ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN

8. CoastCLIM: Modelling Shoreline Change

9. CoastCLIM Modelling Change in Shoreline Position

14. CoastCLIM Outputs

15. DEMONSTRATION