1. Shoreline Change Analysis; Sea Level Exceedence Projections Tiffany Anderson Sea Grant Extension Agent on Kauai

2. Overview Historical shoreline data Storms in shoreline change analysis Advection and diffusion in shoreline change analysis Tide gauge data - project exceedence levels

3. UH Coastal Geology Group Shoreline change studies (sandy shorelines) – Oahu, Maui, Kauai Extract shorelines from historical aerial photos Shoreline change modeling and analysis Results - Maps

4. Mapping Historical Shorelines portion of an aerial photo mosaic

5. Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – single transect Frazer, Anderson, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009

6. Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

7. Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

8. Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

9. Advection and Diffusion in shoreline change analysis Goals: 1. Improve prediction 2. Extract sediment transport information

11. Kailua Shorelines

12. Mathematical Model

13. Procedure

14. Results – Parameters

15. Results – Shoreline Position Prediction

17. Results – Sediment Transport

19. Sea Level Exceedence Projections Information on inundation due to sea level rise by: 1. Scenario 2. Timescale

20. MHHW MHHW – mean of highest daily tide over tidal epoch

21. Projected Sea Level 0.75-1.90 m (1 m even in best case) with Maui subsidence (0.82- 1.97 m) Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009 Best case scenario Worst case scenario Lands within 25 cm of MHHW

22. 1 week per year 3 weeks per year 3 months per year

23. 1 week per year 6 weeks per year 10 months per year

24. Thank you! tranders@hawaii.edu cell: (808) 639-4845