1. GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe

2. www.rec.org GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008 In cooperation with ETC-EEA Covering all the European countries Web page: http://www.eea.europa.eu/ publications/eea_report_20 08_5

3. www.rec.org OUTLINE Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target GHG Emission trends by sector GHG Projections Available AAUs for carbon market for the first commitment period. Conclusions

4. www.rec.org Base year GHG Emissions and Kyoto target Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases Initial Report………281.895 Mt CO 2 eq Expert review……..278.225 Mt CO 2 eq Kyoto Target: -8% by 2012 278.225 x 92% = 255.967 Mt CO 2 eq

5. GHG EMISSION TRENDS BY SECTOR

6. www.rec.org Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

7. www.rec.org Difference in base year emissions 2005 vs. 2006 Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

8. www.rec.org GHG by sectors in 2004 fossil fuels combustion domestic energy sources as lignite and hard coal Fuel switch and increased EE. methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors possible. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

9. GHG PROJECTIONS

10. www.rec.org WEM and WAM projections for 2010 31.6 % and 35.3 % less then base year Base year emissions under the KP 2010 projections WEM 2010 projections WAM Total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) 278.2 Mt CO 2 -eq. 190.9 Mt CO 2 -eq. 180.0 Mt CO 2 -eq. 100 %68.4%64.7% Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008

11. www.rec.org Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on WAM Kyoto compliance even in 2020 But GHG emissions further accelerating Source: European Energy Agency, 2008

12. GIS in Romania

13. www.rec.org Why GIS in Romania? A strong decline in the GHG emissions and has a possible big surplus in Romania Advantage of GIS: Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of the sales of AAUs flexibility in project eligibility and approval flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project support.

14. www.rec.org How much AAUs can be sold? AA 2008-2012 = 1,299,349,047 tCO 2 -eq. Commitment Period Reserve (most recent inventory bases) 5 x GHG emissions in 2004 = 800,298,657 tCO 2 -eq Remaining AAUs 1,299,349,047 - 800,298,657 = 499,050,390 tCO 2 -eq.

15. www.rec.org Why to be careful with AAUs? Energy sector increase since 1999 Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU membership) global economic crisis is TEMPORARY Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to increase GHG emission for the 2010-2020 GHG emmission calculation models to be improved Projection models to be improved

16. www.rec.org Why to be careful with AAUs? New methodologies/models are implemented Projection calculations to be revised based on new emission calculation & projection models Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the compliance with Kyoto targets

17. www.rec.org Summary and Conclusion WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain still very much below the Kyoto target. A high potential of further GHG reduction High potential for GIS projects However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of emissions Changes in the models and methodologies for projections should be taken into account Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority

18. Thank you Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe gamze@rec.org www.rec.org