1. Telecommunications for the future - 5 Rob Parker CERN IT Division

2. R. Parker - CERN2 Which solution for “fixed” users? who want significantly higher rates from the cabled network than ISDN can offer?

3. R. Parker - CERN3 Summary of fixed (cabled) technologies for distribution speed bits/s “always on” availabilitystandard Modem56knonowyes ISDN64knonowyes ADSL100k-6Myesnowyes CATV100k-10Myesnowno Fibre>100Myesnowno

4. R. Parker - CERN4 My prediction for fixed users ADSL will be heavily used: –where it is available –and, it will be widely available WLL will be used: –where ADSL is not available –if competitive circumstances make it more economical than ADSL

5. R. Parker - CERN5 What solution for mobile users?

6. R. Parker - CERN6 Summary of mobile (wireless) technologies for “wide area” speed bits/s “always on”availabilitystandard GSM14.4knonowyes HSCSD57.6kno2001yes GPRS171.2kyes2001yes EDGE384kyes2002yes 3G~200k/2Myes2003yes

7. R. Parker - CERN7 Summary of mobile (wireless) technologies for “local area” speed bits/s frequencyavailabilitystandard HIPERLAN 120M5GHzlimited, nowyes HIPERLAN 26-54M5GHzend 2001yes IEEE 802.11b 1,2,5.5, 11M 2.4GHznowyes

8. R. Parker - CERN8 3G economics assume that there are 300M mobile subscribers in |Europe assume that those interested in 3G are the 10% described earlier, who want LAN access rates (the other 90% get nothing extra from 3G) assume that they all accept 3G, in spite of the data rates being much less than a LAN (0.2-2M instead of 10M) then there will be 30M 3G subscribers

9. R. Parker - CERN9 3G economics (contd.) 3G licences and infrastructure in Europe will cost ~300 billion USD –ie. 10,000 USD per subscriber even if the operators do not amortize their investment, they will have to pay interest charges of, say, 5% ie. 500 USD / subscriber/year, ie. a monthly subscription of 40 USD

10. R. Parker - CERN10 3G economics (end) If some of the 10% of users who want high speed find that GSM/GPRS + IEEE 802.11b is enough, the charges for the rest will be correspondingly higher CONCLUSION: 3G IS NOT GOING TO BE AN OBVIOUS CHOICE

11. R. Parker - CERN11 My prediction for mobile users the 40% who need 100 kbit/s “always on” will use GSM and its enhancements (GPRS & EDGE) the 10% who want Ethernet speeds will use: –wireless LAN (probably IEEE 802.11b) which will be available in all major airports, hotels, convention centres etc. –GSM with GPRS/EDGE where a wireless LAN is not available

12. R. Parker - CERN12 Killer application for GPRS/EDGE a combined GSM phone & PDA potential market: the 40% + 10% of mobile users who will want data (150 M users) potential profit: 15 billion USD Specification: –size of Palm –GSM with GPRS and/or EDGE –Bluetooth for synchronization with PCs and to provide laptop connectivity

13. R. Parker - CERN13 Summary Fixed users: ADSL or WLL Mobile users: GPRS/EDGE IEEE 802.11b Hotels, airports:implement IEEE 802.11b (and charge for it!) GSM operators:implement GPRS/EDGE quickly 3G operators:PRAY!

14. R. Parker - CERN14 THE END!