1. MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA

2. ETSS background ETSS model is based on SLOSH, but modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates: –Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996 –Alaska, Arctic: 1998 –Gulf of Alaska: 2008 –East Coast: 1999, 2008 –Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011 –West Coast: 1998, 2011

3. ETSS background Resolution varies –Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km –East Coast ~ 9.4km –Alaska ~ 6.7km –West Coast ~ 6.5km Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days Results posted to the web –http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text & hydrographs)http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ –http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ –http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SUR GE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96 _HR.shtml (gridded)http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SUR GE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96 _HR.shtml

4. ETSS results for 3/4/2011 MDL’s website displaying total water level station status map, based on ETSS output OPC’s website displaying gridded ETSS results

5. Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS

6. OPC’s website displaying gridded ETSS results for 3/4/11 Station total water level plot showing forecast for Ike storm surge event at Galveston, TX

7. MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort Completed –Uploaded to SURA server: archived forecast graphs and text files for north East Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest Projected –Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived GFS wind data –Potentially create gridded hindcasts using reanalysis GDAS winds